UFC 272 best bets: Fade Greg Hardy in stylistic nightmare

Saturday's UFC 272 pay-per-view event features a highly anticipated grudge match between former welterweight title challengers Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal.

Before the action gets underway at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, here are the two best bets for the event.

Colby Covington by decision (-120) vs. Jorge Masvidal

Covington and Masvidal have both promised violent finishes in the main event, and you may think a personal fight like this is bound to end inside the distance. But to be honest, the matchup has Covington by unanimous decision written all over it.

Covington is a heavy favorite to beat Masvidal, so rather than taking him outright at -320, we'll take the decision prop - by far the most likely outcome if Covington wins - to increase our value.

If the fight plays out in the striking department, the former interim champion's three main advantages over Masvidal will be his volume, pressure, and cardiovascular endurance. Covington will keep Masvidal on his backfoot, forcing him to constantly play catch up on the scorecards and look for the big shot.

Meanwhile, Covington will rack up points with consistent offense on the feet - albeit without getting close to a knockout win, as Covington isn't known for his power and Masvidal is durable.

Though "Chaos" should be more than comfortable striking with Masvidal, he also has an elite wrestling skill set in his back pocket should Masvidal start connecting with punches. Covington could try to impose a similar game plan that UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman used in his first meeting with Masvidal in July 2020, holding Masvidal against the fence and looking for takedowns.

Of course, Masvidal does have one-punch knockout power, so that's something to keep in mind. But Covington took big shots in his rematch with Usman in November and historically has been able to absorb a lot of damage. The smart pick here is Covington by decision.

Serghei Spivac (-200) vs. Greg Hardy

Hardy, the former NFL player who has struggled in the UFC lately, is in for a stylistic nightmare against Spivac.

Hardy seems to have hit his peak, and it's not a very high ceiling. He's 4-4 (1 NC) in the UFC, and all four fighters he's beaten are no longer in the promotion. Spivac is a better fighter than anyone Hardy has bested.

Spivac will need to avoid Hardy's power shots in the first round, which will be Hardy's main window of opportunity. But if Spivac can stay out of danger early, then he'll start to dominate Hardy with his ground game. Hardy had nothing to offer off of his back when Marcin Tybura took him down in their late 2020 contest, and his defense likely hasn't improved enough in that time to keep Spivac off him.

Spivac would be a must-play if he was lower than -200, but that price is still good enough to make him worth a bet.

Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC 272 on March 5:

Main card

• Colby Covington (-320) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+250)
• Rafael dos Anjos (-175) vs. Renato Moicano (+145)
• Bryce Mitchell (-170) vs. Edson Barboza (+140)
• Kevin Holland (-330) vs. Alex Oliveira (+260)
• Serghei Spivac (-200) vs. Greg Hardy (+165)

Preliminary card

• Jalin Turner (-160) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+130)
• Marina Rodriguez (-260) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+210)
• Kennedy Nzechukwu (-130) vs. Nicolae Negumereanu (+100)
• Mariya Agapova (-180) vs. Maryna Moroz (+150)

Early preliminary card

• Umar Nurmagomedov (-800) vs. Brian Kelleher (+525)
• Tagir Ulanbekov (-245) vs. Tim Elliott (+195)
• Devonte Smith (-150) vs. Ludovit Klein (+120)
• Dustin Jacoby (-210) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+170)