UFC 281 predictions: Is Adesanya facing his biggest threat in Pereira?

theScore's Jack Browne makes his picks for the top bouts ahead of Saturday's UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden.

Middleweight championship

Israel Adesanya (23-1)
vs.
Alex Pereira (6-1)

Adesanya boasts many impressive qualities that have allowed him to dominate the middleweight division, but his confidence is perhaps the most integral to his success. Few people enter the Octagon with the swagger and self-belief that the 185-pound champion does. When Adesanya hits peak confidence and enters his flow state, you can see his opponents realize the inevitable is coming. It happened with Robert Whittaker. It happened with Paulo Costa. It happened with Jared Cannonier. But this fight against Pereira brings a new element to an Adesanya fight: Potential inner doubt.

Pereira owns not one, but two kickboxing wins over Adesanya, including the only knockout loss the champion has suffered across 35 kickboxing fights, 24 MMA bouts, and six boxing matchups. For once, the psychological edge might not be in Adesanya's favor. Costa and Marvin tried to get in Adesanya's head, but unlike them, Pereira has had the ammunition to pierce the champion's ego in the run-up to the fight - and he's done just that, over and over and over again. The mental game is a vital component for any successful title challenger, especially one facing a long-reigning champion.

Pereira is smartly trying to goad Adesanya into fighting with passion rather than his usual tactical risk-averse style. Adesanya is perhaps the best striker in the UFC - a master at counters, using his range advantage, and mixing up his strikes. Pereira is no slouch on the feet, but he knows his main advantage is his devastating power, which he showed off against Sean Strickland in his last fight. He needs Adesanya to make uncharacteristic mistakes to create openings for big fight-ending shots.

Adesanya has far more experience inside the Octagon than Pereria, who has only seven MMA bouts to his name. But the 35-year-old Brazilian fighter has fought in 40 kickboxing matches, and since the champion is unlikely to want to take the fight to the ground, their experience gap might not matter that much.

As I said when predicting Leon Edwards versus Kamara Usman, even the reigns of the best champions have sudden endings - it's just difficult to see the cliff coming until you have the benefit of hindsight. Outside of his rematch with Whittaker and a five-round war with Kelvin Gastelum, it's felt like Adesanya hasn't had to dig too deep to stay at the top of the middleweight division. That will change Saturday. Pereira should drag the champion into deep waters, emerging with his third rivalry win and UFC gold around his waist.

The pick: Alex Pereira, 3rd-round TKO

Strawweight championship

Carla Esparza (20-6)
vs.
Zhang Weili (22-3)

Let's all take a moment and pray to the MMA gods that we're spared a repeat of the last strawweight title fight in which Esparza edged Rose Namajunas in easily one of the UFC's worst championship bouts. That's not to suggest Esparza isn't worthy of holding the title once again, but it's fair to say a lot of people will think of that mind-numbingly boring matchup - rather than her impressive five-fight win streak that earned her a title shot - when sizing up her chances against Zhang.

We shouldn't have to worry, though, because Zhang is the queen of Octagon entertainment. A true finisher, Zhang always fights aggressively and with a desire to avoid the judges. Of her 22 victories, 18 have come via finish (11 knockouts, seven submissions). On the other hand, Esparza likes to play a more careful, strategic game (11 of her 19 wins have come via decision). So the titleholder faces a tall task to control the boundless ball energy in Zhang, who enters the fight as a big favorite.

Zhang not only possesses the power advantage on the feet, but she is also a match for Esparza in grappling situations. While Esparza should look to use her superior wrestling skills to try and wear her opponent down and sap her explosiveness, that's easier said than done. Zhang has a takedown defense of 60%, and she's only gotten better recently (Namajunas was the only woman to take her to the mat in her last few fights). Esparza is adept at keeping competitors on their back if she can get them there - the American fighter has a top position percentage of 27.1%, third-best in the division - but she's rarely faced anyone with Zhang's athleticism.

Surviving five rounds against a buzzsaw that won't want any part of a patient fight feels too much for Esparza, even though she's made a career out of proving doubters wrong. But it could get ugly if her early attempts to take the fight to the ground are unsuccessful and she's forced to go shot for shot with Zhang. The challenger is just too dynamic, and Esparza, who has never been adept at avoiding strikes, is now 35 years old. Many people already feel Zhang is the best strawweight on the planet, and she'll cement that status in a big way Saturday.

The pick: Zhang Weili, 2nd-round TKO

Lightweight bout

Dustin Poirier (28-7, 1 NC)
vs.
Michael Chandler (23-7)

The fights at the top of the card have the most at stake, but Poirier versus Chandler should be the matchup that gets fans' blood pumping the most. Both men are rarely part of boring fights, meaning the Madison Square Garden crowd is surely in store for another wild show.

The bout has also gained new importance for Poirier and Chandler after Islam Makhachev beat Charles Oliveira to claim the vacant lightweight championship. Oliveira owns a recent win over both men, and a victory for him would have meant the winner of this matchup maintains their spot, at best. But Makhachev's meteoric rise didn't go through either Poirier or Chandler, and while it seems featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski is next in line, whoever wins this could get another title shot far sooner than they previously expected.

Poirier's only losses since 2017 are to Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov, both capable of outmaneuvering and overwhelming the veteran on the ground. When the 33-year-old is in a firefight - such as bouts against Justin Gaethje, Conor McGregor, and Max Holloway - he usually comes out top thanks to a crisp stand-up game and concrete chin.

Chandler, meanwhile, bounced back from losses to Oliveira and Gaethje in his second and third UFC fights, respectively, with a spectacular knockout of Tony Ferguson. Since joining the UFC, Chandler has been one of the promotion's most entertaining fighters, almost knocking Oliveira out before being finished himself, going blow for blow with Gaethje, and literally kicking Ferguson out of the lightweight division. He wants to get butts out of seats, but that approach comes with risks.

If Chandler seemed more likely to use his wrestling skills, this fight would be a toss-up. But the former Bellator champion has said he wants to create a moment at the iconic MSG, so it seems a brawl is inevitable. While the 36-year-old has more knockout power, Poirier's more refined and controlled striking should win the day.

The pick: Dustin Poirier, unanimous decision