UFC 285 best bets: Rakhmonov to emerge as contender

Saturday's UFC 285 features a vacant heavyweight title fight between former light heavyweight champion Jon Jones and former interim heavyweight champ Ciryl Gane.

Also on the card, Valentina Shevchenko defends the women's flyweight belt against Alexa Grasso.

Fighting for the first time since February 2020, Jones is a small favorite to become a two-division champion in the main event, sitting at -175 on theScore Bet. There are too many question marks surrounding Jones to comfortably bet money on him. The layoff and this being his first time at heavyweight make this a 'dog-or-pass fight.

Before the action gets underway at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, here are the two best bets for the event.

Nickal-Pickett under 1.5 rounds (-330) / Shavkat Rakhmonov (-550)

$100 parlay to win $53.99 profit

Bo Nickal, one of the top prospects MMA has seen in a long time, is set to make his highly anticipated UFC debut against Jamie Pickett in a middleweight affair.

Nickal's two appearances on Dana White's Contender Series in 2022 ended by submission in 62 and 52 seconds, respectively, and his professional debut earlier that year was a 32-second knockout. Nickal, the three-time Division-I national champion in folkstyle wrestling, has wasted no time in his MMA career so far, and that'll be no different in his first UFC bout.

Pickett has loads more MMA experience than Nickal, clocking in at 21 pro bouts and six Octagon appearances. But that ultimately won't make much of a difference. If Kyle Daukaus and Jordan Wright can finish Pickett in Round 1, then so can Nickal. This, by all accounts (Nickal is a -2400 favorite), is going to be a demolition. So take the under 1.5 rounds prop as the lead to your parlay and thank us later.

The other side of the parlay sees undefeated welterweight Shavkat Rakhmonov take the biggest step up of his career against Geoff Neal. And he'll pass the test with flying colors.

Rakhmonov is a heavy favorite at -550, which is why we're tossing him in a parlay. If you're still unfamiliar with him, the Uzbekistan native has as much promise as Khamzat Chimaev or literally anyone else in the 170-pound division. He's a killer on the feet, but he's freakishly good on the ground. He also has a significantly larger frame than Neal, so stylistically, this is a super tough matchup for the American.

Neal will have to close the distance on the feet to land punches without Rakhmonov taking him down, and that seems almost impossible. Expect Rakhmonov to work Neal in the grappling department en route to a submission victory.

Derek Brunson (+190) vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Brunson-Du Plessis is a classic veteran-versus-prospect matchup. Brunson has been a perennial contender in the middleweight division for years - he was one win away from a title shot just last year - while Du Plessis is a hot up-and-comer.

It's not too surprising to see Du Plessis as the favorite. He's younger and has been more active. That said, the odds are skewed far too much in his favor. Du Plessis is biting off more than he can chew here.

Brunson has solid fundamentals. His striking can be awkward, but it's effective, and he has a lot of power in his hands. The best part of Brunson's game is his wrestling base. That's what led him to a five-fight winning streak from 2019-21. He dominated the likes of Darren Till and Kevin Holland with takedowns and ground-and-pound, showing a fairly high fight IQ.

Du Plessis is getting better, but he's still kind of sloppy on the feet and has questionable cardiovascular endurance. Brunson will land the harder shots on the feet and grind Du Plessis out against the fence and on the mat for an upset victory.

Here are the full odds for UFC 285 on March 3.

Main card

• Jon Jones (-175) vs. Ciryl Gane (+145)
• Valentina Shevchenko (-750) vs. Alexa Grasso (+475)
• Shavkat Rakhmonov (-550) vs. Geoff Neal (+380)
• Mateusz Gamrot (-220) vs. Jalin Turner (+180)
• Bo Nickal (-2400) vs. Jamie Pickett (+1100)

Preliminary card

• Cody Garbrandt (-180) vs. Trevin Jones (+150)
• Dricus Du Plessis (-230) vs. Derek Brunson (+190)
• Amanda Ribas (-120) vs. Viviane Araujo (-105)
• Marc-Andre Barriault (-150) vs. Julian Marquez (+125)

Early preliminary card

• Ian Machado Garry (-900) vs. Song Kenan (+550)
• Cameron Saaiman (-260) vs. Mana Martinez (+210)
• Tabatha Ricci (-320) vs. Jessica Penne (+255)
• Farid Basharat (-475) vs. Da'Mon Blackshear (+350)
• Loik Radzhabov (-265) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+215)