UFC 285 predictions: How will Jones look after longest layoff yet?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 285 in Las Vegas, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top bouts.

Heavyweight championship

Jon Jones (26-1, 1 NC)
vs.
Ciryl Gane (11-1)

Believe it or not, 1,120 days after a controversial victory in what would be his final light heavyweight title defense (at least for now, but presumably forever), Jones is back.

There are a ton of question marks surrounding the return of one of the greatest mixed martial artists of all time. Let's start with the time away from the sport. Ring rust hasn't seemed to affect Jones too much throughout his career. He returned after layoffs of one year or more three times - against Ovince Saint Preux, Daniel Cormier, and Alexander Gustafsson - and walked away with a UFC championship belt each time. But now, Jones is 35 and, let's face it, three years on the sidelines is very different from 15 or 17 months.

Perhaps even more pertinent to Jones' success against Gane is how he performs as a heavyweight. After 15 years of usually having a significant height and an even bigger reach advantage at light heavyweight, this is his first time competing with the big boys. And Gane is a legitimate heavyweight, trim when he weighs in around 245 pounds. Jones has done his due diligence, spending the better part of three years adding weight and muscle to his frame to essentially turn himself into a real heavyweight.

Jones will be stronger than he was at 205 pounds, which could increase his ability to control Gane in the clinch and on the ground. But the extra weight may work against him and make him slower and more sluggish. It's impossible to know for sure until he steps into the Octagon.

Even without these outside factors, Jones-Gane is an extremely tough fight to call. But it may come down to whether Jones chooses to use - and is successful with - his grappling.

Gane showed a lack of takedown defense when he fought former heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou in 2022. Jones, with his high fight IQ, will almost certainly try to capitalize on that. If he can tie Gane up in the clinch and take him down, this is his fight to lose. On the feet, Gane is better. Bringing a Muay Thai background into the fight, he's arguably the sharpest and quickest striker in the heavyweight division. He moves like a middleweight. Jones has always been an elite and crafty striker, especially with his kicks, but Gane's skills in that area will be tough to match.

Jones hasn't put on a grappling clinic since a win over Chael Sonnen more than a decade ago, and although he scored takedowns against Dominick Reyes and Anthony Smith, the last time he actually used grappling to win was in a 2018 ground-and-pound victory over Gustafsson. However, Jones has talked about his grappling a lot ahead of the fight with Gane. It's clear he knows getting his opponent to the mat could be the difference between capturing the heavyweight title and suffering his first true loss.

In some ways, everything is trending in Gane's favor. He's been more active (obviously). He's fought the top heavyweights in the world like Ngannou, Tai Tuivasa, and Alexander Volkov. He has the longest reach of any opponent Jones has ever faced - and the latter generally puts on less dominant performances when facing someone his size. Gane is clearly in his prime, whereas Jones doesn't seem to be.

But this is still Jon Jones, after all. One of the smartest, most opportunistic, and nastiest fighters ever. One of the biggest talents in MMA history. Maybe his lackluster performances in recent years against Reyes, Thiago Santos, and Smith were a result of him wanting bigger challenges. Maybe the move to heavyweight has lit a fire underneath him. Maybe the Jon Jones we all know is back.

I don't feel good about this prediction, but ultimately, I don't have the guts to pick against Jones. Historically, backing his opponent hasn't gone well.

The pick: Jones, unanimous decision

Women's flyweight championship

Valentina Shevchenko (23-3)
vs.
Alexa Grasso (15-3)

Shevchenko is coming off the closest fight of her title reign so far, a split-decision win over Taila Santos last June. But don't read into that too much. For all we know, she just had an off night.

I expect "Bullet" will return to her dominant ways in her eighth defense.

Grasso could test Shevchenko on the feet. The Mexican challenger is a great boxer, using her speed and volume to best her opponents in that department. But Shevchenko is a supremely talented striker and a master of counter shots. If things get hairy at punching range with Grasso, Shevchenko can tie her opponent up against the fence and land shots in the clinch.

In the end, though, Shevchenko is likely going to win this fight on the ground. She'll take advantage of her big edge in the grappling department. When opportunity strikes, she'll take Grasso down and try to get to the crucifix position, where she finished multiple title contenders. Even if she can't get there, Shevchenko should be able to rack up enough control time to secure a decisive victory.

The champ has more ways to win, it's as simple as that. And still.

The pick: Shevchenko, third-round TKO

Welterweight bout

Geoff Neal (15-4)
vs.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0)

This fight is easy to call. Rakhmonov all day.

The undefeated Kazakh has been on a roll since joining the UFC in 2020, winning four straight by finish. It doesn't look like he'll slow down anytime soon.

Rakhmonov is well-rounded, boasting multiple tools on the feet and insane grappling chops. He uses unorthodox trips and throws to get his opponents to the ground. Once there, Rakhmonov has a very strong submission game - three of his four UFC wins were chokes.

To pull off the upset, Neal needs to keep the fight on the feet. He's a competent boxer, but he does his best work in the striking department in close quarters. He needs to get past Rakhmonov's length and bust him up in phone-booth exchanges. Unfortunately, getting close will just give Rakhmonov an easier time of grabbing a leg or tossing Neal to the canvas.

This is the biggest test of Rakhmonov's budding career, and I think he'll pass it easily.

The pick: Rakhmonov, second-round submission