UFC 290 predictions: Is an upset brewing in Volkanovski-Rodriguez?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 290 in Las Vegas, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Featherweight championship

Alexander Volkanovski (25-2)
vs.
Yair Rodriguez (15-3, 1 NC)

At 145 pounds, Alexander Volkanovski has looked virtually unbeatable in the last three years. Although Yair Rodriguez's skill set presents a unique challenge, it's hard to go against the reigning champion in the main event.

There's a good reason why many consider Rodriguez potentially Volkanovski's biggest test in the division. The original winner of "The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America," Rodriguez has had loads of potential since his 2014 UFC debut. He's a dynamic, powerful striker who has several highlight-reel knockouts under his belt, including one of the best knockouts in UFC history against Chan Sung Jung and a head-kick stoppage of Andre Fili.

Unlike some of Volkanovski's past opponents, Rodriguez can shut out the lights at any moment - that's what makes him so dangerous.

Also, the Mexico native showed in an interim title-claiming submission of Josh Emmett in February that he's improved leaps and bounds on the ground. That's just one more thing Volkanovski has to think about Saturday.

All of that said, Volkanovski has successfully defended the featherweight title four times as one of the UFC's top pound-for-pound fighters for a reason. He's a superb technician in the striking department, using volume, range, and a high fight IQ to outpoint his opponents. Volkanovski adapts on the fly when things get stingy. He's also incredibly durable.

In this title defense, I expect Volkanovski to resort to the wrestling-heavy game he used more in his early UFC days. While it's possible Volkanovski would edge Rodriguez in a pure striking battle, taking him to the mat and beating him up with ground-and-pound - a la Frankie Edgar's 2017 win over Rodriguez - simply reduces the risk of losing the belt.

After a competitive first 10 minutes, Volkanovski will pull away from Rodriguez and start to do some serious damage in the middle rounds. Once again, he'll cement himself as the best featherweight on the planet.

The pick: Volkanovski, fourth-round TKO

Flyweight championship

Brandon Moreno (21-6-2)
vs.
Alexandre Pantoja (25-5)

For the first time in what feels like forever (actually, only a year), Brandon Moreno is fighting someone other than Deiveson Figueiredo - and he's defending the title against someone other than Figueiredo for the very first time.

Moreno still has a lot of history with his UFC 290 opponent, Alexandre Pantoja. He also has a lot to prove in this fight.

The Mexican champion has lost twice to Pantoja before. Their first meeting was an exhibition bout on "The Ultimate Fighter" in 2016, and then Pantoja again got the nod over Moreno in a professional UFC bout two years later.

But a lot has changed in the last five years. This time, Moreno should be favored. Since his second loss to Pantoja, Moreno has worked hard to climb his way up the rankings and has ultimately become one of the UFC's best fighters. His boxing is crisp and his grappling is impressive. And at 29 years old, Moreno is the best he's been and has the potential to reign over the division for a while.

However, if anyone will defeat Moreno right now, it's Pantoja. The 33-year-old American Top Team product is well-rounded and intelligent and has great finishing ability on the feet and ground.

I'm leaning toward the younger fighter in Moreno to pick apart Pantoja from range - especially down the stretch - to edge a narrow decision. But don't be too shocked if we see a new flyweight champion. After all, it wouldn't be the first time Pantoja has beaten Moreno.

The pick: Moreno, unanimous decision

Middleweight bout

Robert Whittaker (24-6)
vs.
Dricus Du Plessis (19-2)

Whittaker-Du Plessis is one of my most anticipated bouts in the International Fight Week lineup, but it's also one of the easier ones to call.

Whittaker, a former UFC middleweight champion, has displayed impressive longevity as the second-best middleweight on the planet. He's rarely missed a beat, other than in two fights with current champ Israel Adesanya. If there was a fantasy world in which Adesanya never signed with the UFC, it's very likely Whittaker would be on title defense No. 6 by this point.

So, will Du Plessis be the first fighter other than Adesanya to beat Whittaker in nearly a decade? I have a hard time believing that's going to happen.

Whittaker is simply the better fighter. He's a smart and talented striker who rarely gives his opponents an inch to land strikes during stand-up exchanges. He also has a solid wrestling game to fall back on.

Du Plessis is a wild up-and-comer who's relied on raw finishing ability, rather than technique, to win his first five fights in the UFC. He doesn't have the prettiest skill set and sometimes gasses, but so far, it's worked for him against the likes of Derek Brunson and Darren Till.

Here's the problem: Whittaker is a massive step up in competition.

In the end, the former champion will be way too much for Du Plessis. He'll cruise past him on the feet for a dominant victory that potentially sets up a third fight against Adesanya.

The pick: Whittaker, unanimous decision

Other main-card predictions: Jalin Turner def. Dan Hooker by decision; Bo Nickal def. Val Woodburn by submission