3 storylines to watch at UFC 291

UFC 291 - and the second-ever BMF title fight - is upon us.

In Saturday's main event, perennial lightweight contenders Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will square off in a highly anticipated rematch of their 2018 instant classic. The fight will be for the mythical BMF championship, which Jorge Masvidal left vacant when he retired earlier this year. In the co-headliner, former middleweight champion Alex Pereira moves up to 205 pounds against Jan Blachowicz.

Here are three key storylines heading into the UFC's return to Salt Lake City.

Will Poirier-Gaethje 2 end the Fight of the Year debate?

Islam Makhachev's back-and-forth, high-level chess match against Alexander Volkanovski in February was the early front-runner for 2023's Fight of the Year. Then Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Moreno let loose in their violence-filled rematch at UFC 290. Some would argue that fight is the new top candidate; it's strong competition at the very least.

But it may be a meaningless debate after this weekend.

Poirier and Gaethje are two of the most exciting and violent fighters in UFC history. Poirier is tied for fifth-most finishes ever (14) and tied for most knockout wins in UFC lightweight history (eight). Gaethje has 24 pro wins, 19 of which are knockouts. Poirier is tied for most "Fight of the Night" bonuses in UFC history (eight), while Gaethje is right behind him tied at seven. Both men have been involved in several Fight of the Year candidates. And that includes their first meeting in 2018.

Poirier produced an unforgettable fourth-round TKO win over Gaethje more than five years ago. To put it in the simplest terms possible, Poirier and Gaethje punched each other in the face and kicked each other in the legs ... a lot. Almost the entire fight was competitive, but Poirier eventually overwhelmed his opponent to become the second person to crack the Gaethje code. At the time, Gaethje had only been beaten - and finished - once, by Eddie Alvarez in 2017.

Poirier-Gaethje 1 was a brawl for the ages. An absolute thriller. The slugfest of all slugfests.

And the rematch could be even better.

Since 2018, both guys have made improvements - especially Gaethje. That fight marked the end of Gaethje 1.0. He came back from the loss looking like a different fighter - more technical and tactical, yet still entertaining. Gaethje won four straight, culminating in a career-best performance against Tony Ferguson to win the UFC interim lightweight title. Only since the Poirier fight has Gaethje cemented himself as one of the very best 155-pound fighters in the world.

Poirier has realized lots of success since the Gaethje fight as well, beating the likes of Max Holloway (for the interim belt), Conor McGregor (twice), Alvarez, and Michael Chandler. In fact, Poirier and Gaethje have lost just twice each since their fight - to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliviera by submission.

Considering the lightweight division's two staple action fighters are wiser now than in 2018, perhaps the rematch won't be quite as crazy as the first fight. There's also a lot on the line - potentially a title shot against the winner of Makhachev-Oliveira 2. Poirier and Gaethje have challenged for undisputed gold twice in the past, and this could be their last chance to earn a title shot. Both men are 34 years old, and 155 pounds isn't an old division like heavyweight.

That said, when you have a tendency to get into fun fights as an MMA fighter, it's sometimes pretty hard to stray away from that. Despite the stakes, Poirier and Gaethje could decide to bite down on their mouthpieces and lock up Fight of the Year in another epic showcase of violence.

How will Pereira look in high-stakes light heavyweight debut?

Pereira against Blachowicz is such a fascinating fight. This is one of the toughest matchups the UFC could've given Pereira in his light heavyweight debut. Israel Adesanya had some success on the ground against Pereira in their first MMA fight last year, and Blachowicz wrestled Adesanya to victory back in 2021. It won't be a huge surprise if Blachowicz does the same to Pereira.

But that's what makes this matchup so great. It's riskier than, say, pitting Pereira against a lower-ranked striker like Volkan Oezdemir or Khalil Rountree Jr. Beating Blachowicz, a former UFC light heavyweight champion who has the only successful title defense in the division since 2020, would be one of the biggest statements Pereira could make. And it'd be all the evidence you need to justify his inclusion in the title conversation at 205 pounds. The former GLORY Kickboxing champion absolutely has the ability to finish Blachowicz with one punch, knee, kick, or elbow on the feet - he's that powerful and that technical.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspects of this fight are the unknowns about how Pereira will look at 205 pounds. He's fought at that weight as a kickboxer, but never in MMA. Pereira was a massive middleweight and had some close calls on the scale. He should be fresher due to not having to cut as much weight, he may be quicker than the average light heavyweight, and at 6-foot-4, being undersized against someone like Blachowicz won't be an issue.

But whenever a fighter changes divisions, it takes time to adjust. If Pereira hasn't properly acclimated to being a light heavyweight, it could be a tough night for him.

Ferguson's last chance to prove he isn't done

The career of Tony Ferguson, a top-10 all-time lightweight, has gotten awfully depressing.

Thirty-eight months ago, "El Cucuy" was riding an insanely impressive 12-fight winning streak, and some argued he was the uncrowned lightweight king. He held the interim title for a while but somehow never challenged for the undisputed belt.

Now, Ferguson finds himself on the wrong end of a five-fight losing streak. And they haven't been good losses either - he's been knocked out, submitted, and dominated. He showed a glimpse of the old Ferguson in a 2022 bout against Chandler - it was clearly his best round in years - only to get brutally knocked out in Round 2.

Of course, all five losses were versus top competition. Ferguson is finally getting a much-needed step down in competition against Bobby Green, who's been a staple of the lightweight division for years but never a title contender.

If Ferguson beats Green, that may be a sign he has a bit left in the tank - at the very least, it'd be a nice moment for a legendary lightweight who's been wronged by politics and bad luck throughout his career. But if Green hands the 39-year-old his sixth consecutive loss, it'd confirm our biggest fear: "El Cucuy" is done.