UFC 292 best bets: Will both champions keep their titles?
Saturday's UFC 292 features a highly anticipated title fight between bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley.
The card also stars strawweight champ Zhang Weili defending her belt against Amanda Lemos.
Before the action gets underway at TD Garden in Boston, here are the two best bets for the event.
Aljamain Sterling (-245) / Zhang Weili (-330)
$100 parlay to profit $83.49
Both champions are sizable favorites to retain their belts this weekend, and it very well could be a chalky night.
Sterling is a stylistic nightmare for O'Malley. His elite grappling and funky stand-up game are poised to give the challenger all sorts of problems. Sterling quietly gets closer to the all-time conversation at 135 pounds each time he steps into the Octagon. He's more proven in five-round fights - and has faced a much higher level of competition - than his opponent. To record his fourth consecutive title defense, Sterling only needs to get O'Malley on the ground. He excels at completing takedowns, particularly in the clinch, while O'Malley has a subpar 21% takedown defense rate when in the clinch, according to Bloody Elbow's Paul Gift.
As for Zhang, the Chinese fighter makes her first title defense since becoming 115-pound queen for the second time after last November's thumping of Carla Esparza. While fans shouldn't entirely sleep on Lemos, this is absolutely Zhang's fight to lose. She's become a more powerful and tenacious fighter in recent years, and that's done wonders for her career path. And her technical striking - which is what got her to the dance - is still good enough to fend off Lemos' heavy punches.
Putting Sterling and Zhang in a parlay gets the price to -120, which isn't bad for a couple of champions who are expected to get the job done. Bruce Buffer will be saying nothing but "and still" inside TD Garden.
Ian Machado Garry wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+100)
Garry could meet his match and suffer his first pro loss eventually, but Saturday will not be that day.
The 25-year-old Irish prospect takes the next step toward title contention when he faces veteran Neil Magny, who owns the most wins in UFC welterweight history.
Magny stepped in just over a week ago after Geoff Neal pulled out of the matchup due to a health issue, so he hasn't had much time to prepare. And fighting Garry is no easy task. "The Future" is long, fairly technical on his feet, and has dynamite in his hands. He's a finisher, with three of his five UFC bouts ending inside the distance. Garry is also young, which could play a big part in the fight.
Magny, 36, needs to make this fight ugly in order to win. He has to push Garry up against the fence and hit him with strikes in the clinch - and maybe even take him down. All of that would eliminate Garry's dynamic striking. But if Garry has a fast start, he can catch his opponent before Magny even has a chance to get going.
Magny hasn't been knocked out in several years, but it's happened before and can happen again. At plus money, Garry by knockout/TKO is worth a sprinkle.
Here are the full odds courtesy of theScoreBet for UFC 292 on Aug. 19:
Main card
- Aljamain Sterling (-245) vs. Sean O'Malley (+200)
- Zhang Weili (-330) vs. Amanda Lemos (+260)
- Ian Machado Garry (-525) vs. Neil Magny (+375)
- Mario Bautista (-225) vs. Da'Mon Blackshear (+185)
- Marlon Vera (-200) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+170)
Preliminary card
- Brad Tavares (-265) vs. Chris Weidman (+215)
- Gregory Rodrigues (-370) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+280)
- Austin Hubbard (-180) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+150)
- Brad Katona (-150) vs. Cody Gibson (+125)
Early preliminary card
- Andre Petroski (-235) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+190)
- Natalia Silva (-320) vs. Andrea Lee (+255)
- Karine Silva (-155) vs. Maryna Moroz (+130)