4 biggest storylines ahead of UFC 294

A revamped UFC 294 card is upon us.

In Saturday's main event, lightweight champion Islam Makhachev defends his title in a rematch with featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski, who stepped in on 11 days' notice after Charles Oliveira pulled out due to injury. In the co-headliner, Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev jump up to middleweight for a No. 1 contender bout. Usman, the former welterweight champion, took the fight on 10 days' notice in place of the injured Paulo Costa.

Here are four key storylines heading into the UFC's return to Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Is UFC 294 better with the short-notice replacements?

This has been the debate all week: Which version of UFC 294 is better, Makhachev-Oliveira 2 and Costa-Chimaev or Makhachev-Volkanovski 2 and Usman-Chimaev?

The popular answer has been that the recent changes upgraded the card. It's easy to see why. Makhachev-Volkanovski 1 is one of the best fights of 2023, and Usman-Chimaev is a matchup that people have wanted to see - albeit at welterweight - for years. On paper, these matchups are more intriguing and competitive than the old ones. In comparison, Makhachev ran through Oliveira in a title fight in October 2022, and Chimaev seemed poised to beat Costa handily.

But the short-notice aspect of the new matchups has to be considered, and not as a positive. Makhachev, Oliveira, Costa, and Chimaev had ample time to prepare. They knew for months who they were fighting. Solid game plans were intact.

The same cannot be said now that Volkanovski and Usman have stepped in.

Arguably two of the 20 greatest fighters in UFC history, Volkanovski and Usman are taking on incredibly tough opponents in incredibly important fights, with less than two weeks to get ready. Volkanovski admitted he had been in the gym less than usual when he got the call to fight Makhachev, and Usman is competing at 185 pounds for the first time. These are potentially career-altering fights for both, and there's almost no chance they'll be at their best.

If Volkanovski and Usman weren't competing on short notice, there would be no comparison - again, these are better matchups than the old ones. And UFC 294 still might be better than it was 10 days ago - if anyone can overcome the odds, it's guys like Volkanovski and Usman. But in a perfect world where injuries don't occur, it would've been best to let Makhachev-Oliveira 2 and Costa-Chimaev play out as planned and then book the other fights in the future.

What can Volkanovski do differently to beat Makhachev this time?

Volkanovski was a surprisingly big test for Makhachev at UFC 284 in February. He landed solid punches throughout the fight and dropped Makhachev in the fifth round, his submission defense was sublime, and he returned to his feet quicker and more often after being taken down than most of Makhachev's opponents.

But upon a recent rewatch of the fight, it was a clear victory for Makhachev. Some misconceptions have floated around on social media for the last several months about how well Volkanovski performed. Makhachev didn't dominate by any means, but Volkanovski will need to make some adjustments if he wants to walk away as a two-division champion.

Assuming there's no quick finish, Volkanovski needs to get ahead of Makhachev in the first few rounds. Volkanovski hasn't been training for a five-round fight for the last several months like Makhachev. Volkanovski outlasted Makhachev in February, scoring a late knockdown and closing out the bout by landing ground-and-pound while on top of the lightweight champ. But Volkanovski's cardiovascular endurance may not be up to snuff. This time, Makhachev could be the one looking for a late finish.

Volkanovski said Thursday he plans to hunt for an early finish and use a "kill-or-be-killed" mentality. If he catches Makhachev early and knocks him out, Volkanovski will look like a genius. But this could work against him. Volkanovski is one of the most technical and smartest fighters in the game, and trying to pick Makhachev apart is still the best answer. In the first fight, Volkanovski was sometimes uncharacteristically aggressive and got clipped. If his standup game is a bit tighter than it was at UFC 284, he may be able to outland Makhachev.

Something else Volkanovski can try against Makhachev is offensive grappling. Volkanovski went for opportunistic takedowns a couple of times in the first fight. While he never completed one, Volkanovski showed he is just as strong as Makhachev in the clinch. And when he did get on top of Makhachev as a result of the knockdown, Volkanovski did a bit of damage. Who knows what may happen if Volkanovski can secure a takedown early in or midway through the fight?

Is a Chimaev middleweight title reign inevitable?

Chimaev is coming off wins over Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland at welterweight. But he's apparently one victory away from a title shot at middleweight, and he seems destined to rule over that division in the near future.

UFC president Dana White said recently that the winner of the UFC 294 co-main event between Usman and Chimaev will get the next crack at middleweight champ Sean Strickland, who dethroned Israel Adesanya in September.

Chimaev, one of the most promising fighters in UFC history, has seemingly been on a path to a title since he debuted in 2020. It was just a matter of whether that would be at welterweight or middleweight. He's lost a bit of momentum in the last year while sidelined. And last time out, he badly missed weight. But now, Chimaev is back at middleweight - weight issues in check. And the path to 185-pound gold has arguably never been easier: Beat Usman, the former welterweight champ who stepped in on 10 days' notice and may be past his prime, and then beat Strickland, whom, well, no one expected to be where he is.

Fans shouldn't write off Usman and Strickland completely, but don't be surprised if Chimaev is UFC middleweight champion in no time - and for a long time.

Time to figure out where Usman is at

Oh, Kamaru Usman. What to make of you?

Fourteen months ago, Usman was the pound-for-pound king in the UFC. The best in the world. Borderline untouchable by his welterweight peers.

Now, he's facing more questions about his career - and where he stands as a contender - than ever before.

Usman lost the 170-pound belt to Leon Edwards in August 2022. Usman dominated most of the bout before falling to a Hail Mary head kick late in the fifth round. Usman was favored to regain the title in an immediate rematch in March, but Edwards stunned the MMA world again by picking Usman apart and winning a majority decision, proving he was indeed the UFC's best welterweight after all.

At age 36, with 23 fights and more than a decade of experience under his belt, there's a real chance that we've seen the best of Usman, that it's only downhill from here. His notoriously bad knees are also of concern, even if there are no legs to the recent rumors that he suffered an injury Wednesday during his UFC 294 open workout. Maybe "The Nigerian Nightmare" can bounce back in a new weight class. But facing Chimaev on 10 days' notice is a tough, tough ask for anybody.

In this fight, we're going to learn a lot about where Usman is at. He doesn't have a lot to lose since he's an underdog (for the first time since 2019) and fighting at middleweight. In that sense, Usman's career won't be over if he loses to Chimaev. But his performance will still be a good indication of how much Usman has left in the tank and whether he's still one of the best in the world.