UFC 294 best bets: Makhachev, Volkanovski playing the long game again

Saturday's UFC 294 features an impromptu rematch between lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski for the former's 155-pound belt.

Also on the card, former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman moves up to middleweight to take on undefeated contender Khamzat Chimaev in a title eliminator.

Before the action gets underway at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, here are the two best bets for the event.

Makhachev-Volkanovski goes the distance (+100)

At February's UFC 284, Makhachev and Volkanovski collided in one of the year's best fights. As the heavy favorite, many thought Makhachev would dominate Volkanovski. Yet the bout was competitive, and Volkanovski held his own as the smaller fighter. He defended some of Makhachev's grappling attempts, dropping him in the fifth round and ending the fight on top landing ground-and-pound. However, Makhachev rightfully retained his title by unanimous decision.

It's been only eight months since then, so it's unlikely Makhachev and Volkanovski - 31 and 35 years old, respectively - have made any significant advancements to their MMA games. The biggest difference is that Volkanovski stepped in on 11 days' notice after Charles Oliveira fell out of his rematch due to injury.

If anyone can be competitive against Makhachev without much time to prepare, it's Volkanovski. This isn't to say Volkanovski will win - the odds are most certainly not in his favor. But I suspect the rematch will play out quite similarly to the first fight, meaning we could be in for another 25-minute, edge-of-your-seat affair.

Volkanovski has a rock-solid chin - he remained unfazed when Makhachev tagged him with heavy shots last time. He also has incredible submission defense. Brian Ortega came close to tapping Volkanovski in 2021, but the Australian champ showed resilience and managed to get out of multiple chokes. While Makhachev racked up some control time against Volkanovski in February, the Russian never came at all close to locking a submission in.

On the other hand, it's hard to beat Makhachev, period, never mind finish him. His only loss as a pro came in 2015 during his second UFC bout, and, ironically, it was a first-round knockout. But that's nothing to worry about. That was not the Makhachev of today, and he's also shown toughness throughout his many Octagon appearances since.

If there is a finish in the rematch, it'll probably be Makhachev ground-and-pounding Volkanovski in Rounds 4 or 5. But that's still not very likely. Volkanovski survived five rounds with Makhachev last time - a feat in its own right - and he'll do the same Saturday.

Ikram Aliskerov wins by T/KO (+125)

Ikram Aliskerov went from fighting Paulo Costa to Nassourdine Imavov to Warlley Alves at UFC 294. Each matchup got progressively easier - good news for him.

Aliskerov is one of the most promising prospects in the middleweight division and one of the UFC's latest talents to hail from the MMA hotbed of Dagestan, Russia. He was victorious in his UFC debut in May, knocking out Phil Hawes in the first round. Aliskerov also earned a first-round finish in his Dana White's Contender Series appearance last year. He owns 10 finishes and three decision wins, with his lone loss as a professional coming against Chimaev in 2019.

The 30-year-old should have no issue getting past Alves, who's riding a two-fight skid and has lost four of his past six UFC bouts dating back to 2018. Alves joined the promotion in 2014 after winning the third season of "The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil," but he's had an up-and-down stint. He's also been relatively inactive of late; he was off between June 2021 and January 2023.

Aliskerov is a big finisher, scoring five knockouts and five submissions in his career so far. Meanwhile, Alves was knocked out in two of his last four defeats. Aliskerov is a massive betting favorite and has a very good shot of adding to his knockout tally this weekend.

Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC 294 on Oct. 21:

Main card (ESPN+ PPV at 2 p.m. ET)

• Islam Makhachev (-250) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (+205)
• Kamaru Usman (-350) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (+270)
• Magomed Ankalaev (-385) vs. Johnny Walker (+290)
• Ikram Aliskerov (-600) vs. Warlley Alves (+425)
• Said Nurmagomedov (-235) vs. Muin Gafurov (+190)

Preliminary card (ESPN+ at 10 a.m. ET)

• Muhammad Mokaev (-415) vs. Tim Elliott (+315)
• Trevor Peek (-175) vs. Mohammad Yahya (+145)
• Javid Basharat (-600) vs. Victor Henry (+425)
• Sedriques Dumas (-250) vs. Abu Azaitar (+205)
• Anshul Jubli (-275) vs. Mike Breeden (+225)
• Nathaniel Wood (-340) vs. Muhammad Naimov (+265)
• Viktoriia Dudakova (-575) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+400)
• Shara Magomedov (-300) vs. Bruno Silva (+245)