UFC 294 predictions: Will Makhachev pick up another win over Volkanovski?
Ahead of Saturday's UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.
Lightweight championship
Islam Makhachev (24-1)
vs.
Alexander Volkanovski (26-2)
We were supposed to be getting a rematch between UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and Charles Oliveira this weekend in Abu Dhabi, but the injury bug struck UFC 294 in a big way. An impromptu rematch between Makhachev and featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski is a damn fine consolation prize. And based on Makhachev's mauling of Oliveira last October and his narrow decision win over Volkanovski in February, many would argue we're actually getting the better matchup.
The key difference between Makhachev-Volkanovski 1 and Makhachev-Volkanovski 2 is that Volkanovski is stepping in on 11 days' notice to fight one of the best fighters in the world this time. Volkanovski will be entering the Octagon behind the eight ball Saturday in a matchup that already doesn't favor him.
Volkanovski did well against Makhachev in their first fight - better than Oliveira, Bobby Green, and Dan Hooker combined. He was competitive with Makhachev on the feet, knocked him down in the fifth round, and fended off submissions. But if you go back and watch the bout, Makhachev clearly won. He controlled enough of the striking and grappling exchanges to win three, maybe four rounds. The only clear Volkanovski round was the fifth.
All of that is to say, Volkanovski will need to make some fairly big adjustments if he wants to win the rematch.
For starters, the Australian needs to up his offense on the feet. Makhachev kept Volkanovski to an average of 14 significant strikes landed per round in their first fight, the lowest margin of his illustrious UFC career. Of course, Volkanovski can't rush forward recklessly because Makhachev will hit him with countershot after countershot and potentially land a knockout blow. Makhachev caught Volkanovski coming in several times at UFC 284. Volkanovski needs to be aggressive and land shots to Makhachev's head and body at a consistent clip while ensuring his defense is tight.
Mixing in some offensive wrestling could also benefit Volkanovski. He came close to matching Makhachev's physicality in the clinch, and he landed some ground-and-pound and faced minimal resistance when he got on top of him in the fifth round due to the knockdown. Perhaps Volkanovski would do some serious damage if he gets Makhachev down early in a round or early in the fight.
There's a path to victory for Volkanovski, but the short notice is still a concern. It's a tall order to beat someone of Makhachev's caliber, period, never mind on less than two weeks' notice. Makhachev's size came into play a lot in the first fight, with Volkanovski struggling to close the distance and Makhachev controlling him on the ground for long periods in Round 4.
Simply put, this isn't an easy matchup for Volkanovski, and while I expect him to put up a great effort again, Makhachev's well-rounded skill set will be too much.
The pick: Makhachev, unanimous decision
Middleweight bout
Kamaru Usman (20-3)
vs.
Khamzat Chimaev (12-0)
Like Volkanovski, former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman is stepping up on short notice to take on a difficult opponent in Khamzat Chimaev - up a division at middleweight. And things aren't exactly in Usman's favor.
Usman-Chimaev is a fight that has been on MMA fans' radars for a number of years. Usman reigned over the welterweight division from 2019-22, and Chimaev burst onto the scene in 2020 as one of the most promising fighters in UFC history. In fact, Usman-Chimaev - with Chimaev challenging Usman for the 170-pound title - was one of the fights we wanted to see most in 2022.
A lot has changed since then, namely, Usman no longer being the dominant pound-for-pound king he was 14 months ago.
Usman lost the welterweight title to Leon Edwards by Hail Mary knockout in August 2022 and then dropped a decision to Edwards in an immediate rematch in March. In the second defeat, Usman looked like a diminished version of himself. He had less success in the takedown department and was stiff on his feet.
Chimaev, on the other hand, is in the prime of his career. He hasn't fought since September 2022, but the layoff shouldn't impact his performance. Chimaev is aggressive and blends his striking and grappling well. He's also bigger than Usman and should be able to punish him wherever the fight goes.
In theory, Usman is Chimaev's toughest test to date. To throw in a little MMA math for you, Usman knocked out Gilbert Burns in 2021, and Burns gave Chimaev a great fight in 2022. But again, we don't know where Usman is at in his career - whether he's still a top contender. It's also hard to say how he'll look at 185 pounds.
Maybe Usman has more left in the tank than we think and can upset Chimaev. But don't count on it. I expect Chimaev to mix his martial arts well and grind out a victory down the stretch.
The pick: Chimaev, unanimous decision
Light heavyweight bout
Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1)
vs.
Johnny Walker (21-7)
Top 205-pound contender Magomed Ankalaev returns after an unsuccessful bid for the UFC light heavyweight championship last December (his fight against Jan Blachowicz ended in a draw) to hopefully get back in the title conversation. He meets Johnny Walker in a winnable matchup with a few interesting variables.
Ankalaev, a native of Russia, brings to the table a mix of powerful striking and suffocating grappling. Walker - a lanky, powerful striker - has struggled with that kind of opponent in the past, but he's a wild card when he steps into the Octagon. Sometimes, he scores vicious knockouts. Sometimes, he loses a dud of a striking matchup. Sometimes, he gets wrestled to defeat.
Walker has shown more consistency lately, beating Anthony Smith (decision), Paul Craig (knockout), and Ion Cutelaba (submission) in consecutive fights. Perhaps the SBG Ireland product has finally turned a corner and will beat Ankalaev and contend for the light heavyweight strap in the near future. But Ankalaev has too many on-paper advantages - largely his wrestling and ground-and-pound - to deny him in this spot.
The pick: Ankalaev, second-round TKO
Other main-card predictions: Ikram Aliskerov def. Warlley Alves by KO; Said Nurmagomedov def. Muin Gafurov by decision