UFC 295 predictions: Will Prochazka retake the light heavyweight throne?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 295 in New York, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Light heavyweight title bout

Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1)
vs.
Alex Pereira (8-2)

Prochazka versus Pereira is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable - and violent - UFC fights in recent memory.

Prochazka is one of the wildest fighters in the promotion - just watch his 2022 Fight of the Year against Glover Teixeira, and you'll agree - and Pereira is one of the most lethal strikers in the sport.

Add in the fact that Prochazka is returning from a 17-month layoff and a severe shoulder injury and that this is only Pereira's second UFC fight at 205 pounds, and it really does feel like anything can happen Saturday night at MSG.

The easiest prediction is that Prochazka-Pereira is going to be entertaining - perhaps even one of the best fights of 2023 - no matter which direction it goes.

As far as a winner is concerned, though, I'll slightly lean toward Prochazka to regain the light heavyweight title. (Prochazka won the belt in June 2022 but relinquished it last November due to the aforementioned injury.) His skill set is constantly evolving, and it seems like he has more ways to win than Pereira does.

Prochazka has developed into something of a fan favorite over the last few years because of his unorthodox striking style, but he showed off an improved ground game in his last fight against Teixeira, maintaining top control for long stretches against the jiu-jitsu practitioner and finishing him with a rear-naked choke.

Pereira has the edge on the feet - he's the sharper striker and likely a bit more powerful - so if things start to get dicey there, look for Prochazka to mix in some wrestling.

And Prochazka could have trouble in the stand-up department against Pereira.

As much as the Czech striker is a knockout threat himself, he does leave himself open for a lot of blows. Pereira is a Brazilian sniper and may be able to capitalize by connecting on Prochazka's chin and putting him away in an emphatic finish.

Ultimately, though, I'm picking Prochazka to slug it out with Pereira early on and then mix in the martial arts to force a ground-and-pound stoppage midway through.

The pick: Prochazka, third-round TKO

Interim heavyweight title bout

Sergei Pavlovich (18-1)
vs.
Tom Aspinall (13-3)

There are no guarantees in life, and MMA, in particular, is a sport that throws curveballs when you least expect them. But there's no chance Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall go the distance, right?

These two bruisers are two of the largest and hardest-hitting heavyweights in the UFC. Take a look at these absurd stats:

Yes, that's right, Aspinall has the quickest average fight time among active UFC fighters at 2:13, and Pavlovich follows close behind with an average of 2:23. They also own the two highest knockdown rates per 15 minutes, with Pavlovich clocking in at a whopping 6.31 knockdowns.

I could spend 10 minutes trying to break down Pavlovich-Aspinall from all angles. But honestly, it feels kind of silly to do that when this fight may just come down to who lands the big shot first.

Of course, there'll still be some strategy involved: Aspinall came up in the sport as a grappling specialist, and although his striking game is now among the best at heavyweight, he still relies on his jiu-jitsu chops more often than not to get the job done. The smartest game plan for Aspinall here will be to try to get Pavlovich on the mat.

Pavlovich has a wrestling base, but he has mostly been a striker in the UFC, bulldozing his way past the likes of Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis. Aspinall will absolutely have the advantage on the ground if the fight gets there.

Ultimately, though, I don't see this fight making it out of the first round, and I think Aspinall is a little more likely to fall first than the extremely tough Pavlovich.

The pick: Pavlovich, first-round knockout

Strawweight bout

Jessica Andrade (24-12)
vs.
Mackenzie Dern (13-3)

Dern should have no problem getting past former strawweight champion Andrade to secure what would be one of her most notable wins to date.

Dern, arguably the most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist in women's MMA, is a nightmare on the ground for anyone. And luckily for her, this matchup suits her well. Andrade - who's looking to snap a dreadful three-fight losing streak - has been taken down and submitted in two Octagon appearances this year.

If Andrade can keep this fight on the feet, the Brazilian power puncher has a shot to pull off the upset and get her career on track. But the more likely scenario is that Dern takes Andrade down at some point and either racks up enough control time for a dominant victory or finds a submission within 15 minutes.

The pick: Dern, second-round submission

Other main-card predictions: Benoit Saint-Denis def. Matt Frevola by TKO; Diego Lopes def. Pat Sabatini by decision