UFC 295 best bets: Any value on the Prochazka-Pereira pick 'em fight?

Saturday's UFC 295 features a vacant light heavyweight title fight between former 205-pound champion Jiri Prochazka and ex-middleweight champ Alex Pereira.

Also on the card, Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall meet in a short-notice bout for the interim heavyweight belt.

Before the action gets underway at Madison Square Garden in New York, here are the two best bets for the event.

Mackenzie Dern (-205) vs. Jessica Andrade

We generally aim for prices under the -200 mark, but Dern clocking in at -205 to beat Andrade is still good value.

The two strawweight contenders are on completely different career trajectories. Dern, one of the most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in the UFC and long heralded as a future champion, is riding some momentum after scoring an incredibly dominant victory over Angela Hill in a UFC Fight Night main event in May. Meanwhile, Andrade - the former 115-pound queen - has lost three in a row and could be approaching the end of her Octagon stint.

There have been some bumps in the road throughout Dern's career - three losses sprinkled in with her eight UFC victories have halted any sort of a title run - but, stylistically, this is a fight in which she should easily prevail.

Two of Andrade's three losses this year have been submissions - against Erin Blanchfield and Tatiana Suarez - and Dern is a master on the ground. Also, it should be pointed out that Andrade's head may not be fully in the game. She told MMA Fighting's Guilherme Cruz that she is competing in her fifth fight of 2023 because she needs to pay divorce costs.

Dern, on the other hand, is fully focused on improving her No. 7 ranking and earning a title shot against Zhang Weili. Dern last won a fight by submission in 2021 but, regardless of whether it's a finish or decision, she will use her grappling skills to control and dominate her Brazilian opponent.

Prochazka-Pereira over 1.5 rounds (-190)

The main event between Prochazka and Pereira is basically a pick 'em fight. The odds, as well as the dissension among MMA fans about who wins, indicate that.

If you're looking to wager on the fight, the best line available is that Prochazka and Pereira make it past the 7.5-minute mark.

Two of Prochazka's three UFC bouts and four of Pereira's six UFC outings have gone over 1.5 rounds. In their most recent fights, Prochazka finished Glover Teixeira in the fifth round, and Pereira went the distance in a three-rounder against Jan Blachowicz. It's a small sample size, but it's also a relatively good indication that against UFC-level competition, neither guy is picking up an early finish too often.

You also have to consider that this is probably the most competitive fight (on paper) that both Prochazka and Pereira have had in the UFC.

Saturday's headliner has fireworks written all over it, and it seems likely that a finish will occur at some point. After all, Prochazka and Pereira are two of the most exciting - and dangerous - fighters in the UFC. But they are also stupidly tough. Because of what's at stake - the light heavyweight crown - and because they both know how threatening their opponent is, I expect a feeling-out process before the chaotic Prochazka and heavy-handed Pereira really begin slugging it out in the middle rounds.

Here are the full odds for UFC 295 on Nov. 11:

Main card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)

• Alex Pereira (-122) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+102)
• Tom Aspinall (-115) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (-105)
• Mackenzie Dern (-205) vs. Jessica Andrade (+170)
• Benoit Saint-Denis (-218) vs. Matt Frevola (+180)
• Pat Sabatini (-118) vs. Diego Lopes (-102)

Preliminary card (ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET)

• Steve Erceg (-185) vs. Alessandro Costa (+154)
• Loopy Godinez (-116) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+140)
• Mateusz Rebecki (-625) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (+455)
• Nazim Sadykhov (-135) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+114)

Early preliminary card (ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET)

• Jared Gordon (-218) vs. Mark Madsen (+180)
• John Castaneda (-125) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (+105)
• Joshua Van (-238) vs. Kevin Borjas (+195)
• Jamall Emmers (-270) vs. Dennis Buzukja (+220)