UFC 298 predictions: Will Volkanovski prove his doubters wrong vs. Topuria?
Ahead of Saturday's UFC 298 in Anaheim, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.
Featherweight championship
Alexander Volkanovski (26-3)
vs.
Ilia Topuria (14-0)
Mixed martial arts can be such a complex and unpredictable sport that sometimes, you just have to go with your gut. And my gut is saying that undefeated phenom Topuria is the man to end Volkanovski's legendary reign as UFC featherweight champion.
It goes without saying that Volkanovski is the more accomplished fighter - he remains one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC, currently ranked No. 3 on the men's list. But the odds are stacked against the Australian in ways they haven't been before. Volkanovski is just four months removed from a devastating knockout loss to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Granted, that was on less than two weeks' notice and up a weight class, but it was still the type of defeat that can put a veteran fighter on a downward slope.
Volkanovski is also 35 years old, an age that seems to act as an expiry date for championship-caliber fighters in the lighter weight classes. Male fighters aged 35 or older are 2-21 in UFC title fights at welterweight and below, per X user Alexander Volkara France.
Finally, Volkanovski is up against his toughest test at 145 pounds in years. Topuria is an undefeated 27-year-old with one-punch knockout power, an evolving skill set on the feet, a solid grappling base, and all the confidence in the world. Many consider Topuria the future of the division.
Of course, it'd be silly to discount Volkanovski entirely. He's beaten the who's who of the generation before him (Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes, and Chan Sung Jung) and the who's who of his own generation (Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, and Yair Rodriguez). Just seven months ago, he dominated Rodriguez in a title unification bout to remind the world he was still the best at featherweight by a wide margin. It's unlikely his skills would diminish that much in less than a year.
The problem is that Topuria is a better fighter than all of his recent challengers. Volkanovski had a clear path to victory against Rodriguez by taking him down. He was more technical on the feet than Holloway and Ortega. "The Korean Zombie," who is now retired, was a shell of himself in his fight with Volkanovski.
Topuria has no obvious weaknesses as a fighter - at least not that we've been able to see. He has four knockouts, eight submissions, and two decisions as a pro. The Spaniard will likely match Volkanovski's technique and surpass his speed in the striking department. He could also counter Volkanovski's wrestling with a 92% takedown defense rate. Even if age and the quick turnaround aren't factors for Volkanovski, he might simply be facing a younger and stronger version of himself.
Ultimately, this is a 50-50 fight. If Volkanovski retains the belt and proves his doubters wrong, I won't be surprised. If Topuria gets Volkanovski out of there and begins a new era in the division, I won't be surprised either.
No fighter is invincible, but Father Time is. That's why I'm picking Topuria to become the new champ.
The pick: Topuria, second-round TKO
Middleweight bout
Robert Whittaker (24-7)
vs.
Paulo Costa (14-2)
Third time's the charm for Whittaker and Costa to square off in the Octagon.
After scheduled fights in 2021 and 2023 fell through, the two longtime middleweight contenders will finally go toe to toe in Saturday's co-main event.
The oddsmakers favor Whittaker to bounce back from his knockout loss to current champion Dricus Du Plessis with a victory over Costa - and for good reason. "The Reaper" has been one of the most technical and composed strikers in the division for years, and beating him in a stand-up battle is something only Du Plessis and former champ Israel Adesanya have managed at 185 pounds.
Costa won't be the third. The Brazilian powerhouse is one of the most dangerous guys in the world when he's at his best, but that hasn't been the case for a while. Since suffering a lopsided stoppage defeat in a title bid against Adesanya in 2020, Costa hasn't been the same knockout artist who ran through his first four opponents in the UFC. Costa was outstruck in a 2021 main event against Marvin Vettori before beating an over-the-hill Luke Rockhold in 2022.
Whittaker is facing questions about whether his best days are behind him following the upset loss to Du Plessis seven months ago, but the Australian should have enough left in the tank to play it safe and outpoint Costa in a fight three years in the making.
The pick: Whittaker, unanimous decision
Welterweight bout
Geoff Neal (15-5)
vs.
Ian Machado Garry (13-0)
Rising star Machado Garry faces the toughest test of his young Octagon career Saturday, and it'll be one he passes with relative flying colors.
I'm not expecting the 26-year-old Irishman to score a highlight-reel finish against Neal, who's one of the toughest outs in the welterweight division. (But if he does, then wow.) However, when the final horn sounds after three rounds of action, it'll be clear that Garry had the upper hand.
The selling point for Garry in this matchup is his size. He's four inches taller than Neal, and although he surprisingly gives up one inch in reach, Garry fights long and maintains distance well. He'll keep Neal at bay and land hard punches all night.
Similarly to Neal's fight with Shavkat Rakhmonov last year, I suspect Neal will throw the kitchen sink at Garry and prove to be the up-and-comer's biggest challenge yet. But Garry will ultimately come out victorious, gain three more rounds of invaluable experience, and emerge as one of the best fighters at 170 pounds.
The pick: Garry, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Merab Dvalishvili (16-4)
vs.
Henry Cejudo (16-3)
On a card full of competitive matchups, Dvalishvili to defeat Cejudo is one of my most confident picks.
Dvalishvili has never looked better - and might be the best bantamweight on the planet. Meanwhile, Cejudo has said he'll retire from MMA (again) if he loses on Saturday. These guys are at two very different points in their careers, and Cejudo arguably having one foot out the door already ought to favor Dvalishvili.
Stylistically, it'll be interesting to see how this fight plays out. Dvalishvili is a cardio and takedown machine who turns pace itself into a weapon. Cejudo - a former two-division champion and, don't you forget, an Olympic gold medalist - is one of the best wrestlers in UFC bantamweight history. Since Dvalishvili and Cejudo are both extremely skilled on the ground, this fight might end up being a striking affair. I think Dvalishvili will outwork Cejudo over three rounds.
The pick: Dvalishvili, unanimous decision
Other main-card prediction: Roman Kopylov def. Anthony Hernandez by TKO