5 biggest storylines ahead of UFC 299
UFC 299 - and Sean O'Malley's opportunity to finally get revenge against Marlon "Chito" Vera - is upon us.
In Saturday's main event, O'Malley defends the bantamweight title for the first time against Vera, who handed "Suga" his only career loss back in 2020. In the co-main event, Dustin Poirier looks to bounce back against Benoit Saint Denis in a marquee lightweight showdown.
Here are five key storylines ahead of the UFC's return to Kaseya Center in Miami.
O'Malley's superstar status could improve significantly with a win
Ever since his win on Dana White's Contender Series in 2017 that got Snoop Dogg's attention, O'Malley has been considered a superstar in the making.
His rise was a slow burn - and a bit of a roller coaster. An underwhelming UFC debut, the setback against Vera (which occurred after a Vera kick injured O'Malley's leg), a no-contest due to an eye poke, and a contested split-decision win over former champion Petr Yan were all sprinkled in with a handful of impressive knockouts throughout the first five years of his Octagon career.
Of course, O'Malley finally broke through as the UFC's top bantamweight - and arguably the star that everyone expected him to one day become - when he knocked out Aljamain Sterling last August, ending Sterling's lengthy title reign with an effortlessness that is rarely seen in MMA.
It's not that something is still missing, but it does feel like O'Malley has scratched only the surface of his potential as one of the faces of the UFC. A 29-year-old from Montana, O'Malley is very popular with Generation Z. He streams himself playing video games on Twitch, dyes his afro with rainbow-like colors ahead of all his fights, and has face tattoos. He caters to the younger crowd - one of the UFC's target audiences these days - like no one else in MMA. But overall, O'Malley is yet to hit Jon Jones or Israel Adesanya - and certainly not Conor McGregor - territory.
On Saturday, he is the defending champion - the A-side - of a pay-per-view main event for the first time. And O'Malley will have a marketable opponent on the other side of the cage. Vera is very popular in the Latino community, and the rematch has a built-in storyline. In their first fight, which co-headlined UFC 252 in August 2020, Vera landed a kick that damaged a nerve in O'Malley's leg and compromised him. And then Vera got on top and finished O'Malley with elbows. But O'Malley has insisted to this day that it was not a legitimate defeat.
If O'Malley can avenge the only loss on his record, and secure his first title defense in the process, he would see a big boost to his stock.
The rematch between O'Malley and Vera is headlining one of the most stacked and anticipated pay-per-view events in recent memory, with numerous former champions and title contenders scheduled to compete. Being the man around whom the UFC 299 card was built - as Jon Anik would say - is a huge opportunity for O'Malley to go from a star in MMA circles to a mainstream superstar beyond the sports world.
Can Poirier fend off the new guard against Saint Denis?
Poirier is fighting down in the rankings against one of the most dangerous and promising up-and-coming lightweights in Saint Denis, who is coming off five straight finishes. And for the first time since a January 2021 bout with Conor McGregor, Poirier is the underdog heading into a fight. That shows how much faith the oddsmakers have in Saint Denis to be the next big thing at 155 pounds.
Poirier-Saint Denis is one of two upcoming lightweight fights involving a longtime contender and a red-hot up-and-comer, the other being former champion Charles Oliveira defending his No. 1 ranking against Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300. Ironically, Oliveira and Poirier met in a lightweight title bout in 2021, and both are now underdogs in fights against new-breed lightweights. The 155-pound division - widely considered one of the UFC's best - could see a lot of turnover in the next two months if Saint Denis and Tsarukyan both win.
The stakes are especially high for Poirier, as he is coming off a devastating knockout loss to fellow ex-interim champ Justin Gaethje last July. The American Top Team product is still one of the best fighters and biggest names in the division. But a loss to Saint Denis on Saturday would sink Poirier to 1-3 in his last four Octagon appearances - and all but eliminate him from title contention at the age of 35.
Does 'MVP' have enough time to make a title run?
Fans have wanted to see Michael "Venom" Page in the UFC for years, and the former Bellator star is finally making his debut against No. 13-ranked welterweight Kevin Holland. But he is on borrowed time.
Page was one of Bellator's most exciting fighters for nearly a decade, using a flashy striking style to produce a long list of highlights and a 17-2 promotional record. Sounds like a great addition to the UFC, right? On paper, yes, but the problem with "MVP" jumping to the world's biggest MMA promotion now is the timing.
Page is 36 years old, which means the odds are stacked against him if he plans to climb all the way to a UFC title. Male fighters ages 35 and older are 2-22 in UFC title fights at welterweight or lower. Former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski was the most recent victim of this statistic, with the age of 35 serving as a benchmark for championship failure in the lighter weight classes.
Though Page hasn't shown any real signs of slowing down, there is a good chance his prime has come and gone - and he is only now going to be fighting the best welterweights on the planet on a consistent basis. The good news is that Page hasn't taken too much damage throughout his career, having suffered only one knockout loss. But he needs to act fast if he wants to make his UFC stint one to remember.
Is Yan still a bantamweight contender?
As it stands, Petr Yan is a top-five bantamweight. But that won't be the case if he loses to Song Yadong.
In less than a year, Yan went from being the uncrowned king of the division to 1-4 in his last five fights (including a blowout loss to Merab Dvalishvili last March) and well outside the title conversation. For someone who began his UFC career with a seven-fight winning streak highlighted by a knockout win over UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo, Yan's sudden downfall is nothing short of shocking.
Hopefully Yan has spent the past 12 months of inactivity working on his game and trying to figure out what has gone wrong. He is only 31 years old, so it would be surprising if this really was it for him. Either way, we'll have a much better idea of where Yan sits in the division after he squares off with the No. 7-ranked Song.
Will the Blaydes-Almeida winner get a shot at Aspinall's interim title?
The UFC 299 featured preliminary bout between heavyweight contenders Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida has potential title stakes attached to it.
Interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall has made it clear he wants to stay busy, and UFC CEO Dana White has made it clear Aspinall won't fight Jon Jones or Stipe Miocic before those two meet in a heavyweight title bout sometime in 2024.
That means Aspinall might actually defend the interim title - which rarely happens in MMA.
Aspinall has already said he's willing to face the winner of Saturday's heavyweight tilt, and surely Blaydes or Almeida would jump at the opportunity. Both matchups have a lot to offer. Blaydes beat Aspinall in 2022, but the fight ended in just 15 seconds when Aspinall suffered a serious knee injury. They have unfinished business. Meanwhile, Almeida is a highly regarded grappling specialist who has rocketed up the heavyweight rankings. Aspinall-Almeida is very intriguing on paper, and it would be a solid headliner for UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro (Almeida is from Brazil) on May 4.
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