UFC 299 predictions: Will O'Malley avenge loss to Vera?
Ahead of Saturday's UFC 299 in Miami, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.
Bantamweight championship
Sean O'Malley (17-1, 1 NC)
vs.
Marlon Vera (23-8-1)
More than three years after suffering a first-round TKO loss to Marlon "Chito" Vera, UFC bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley has a chance to get revenge.
A lot has changed since their first fight at UFC 252 in August 2020; namely, O'Malley has moved up the ladder and emerged as the best bantamweight on the planet by knocking out Aljamain Sterling last summer. And although Vera got it done last time out (after a leg kick injured a nerve in O'Malley's leg and compromised him), O'Malley is rightfully the betting favorite heading into Saturday's main event.
"Suga" has too many advantages in the striking department for Vera to be a smart pick. O'Malley is a sniper on the feet, boasting a long reach, precision, good timing, and a ton of power. And all of that's going to work wonders against Vera, a notoriously slow starter and inactive striker who relies on his knockout power to either win rounds or finish fights a bit more than he should.
Of course, "Chito" is a live underdog because he can catch O'Malley at any point. And when the Ecuadorian smells blood, that's when he's most dangerous. But I expect O'Malley to use his footwork and flow to outwork Vera over the course of five rounds, secure his first title defense, and set up a much more difficult matchup against No. 1 bantamweight contender Merab Dvalishvili.
The pick: O'Malley, unanimous decision
Lightweight bout
Dustin Poirier (29-8, 1 NC)
vs.
Benoit Saint Denis (13-1, 1 NC)
Former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier is fighting down in the rankings and giving red-hot prospect Benoit Saint Denis a chance to break into the top five. Though Poirier should be commended for giving the new generation a shot, he might regret that decision by the time he leaves the Octagon.
Saint Denis has shown all the signs of a future title contender in the last two years, knocking out the likes of Matt Frevola and Thiago Moises with ease. It's not the steepest competition - and you can't overstate how big of a step up Poirier is - but it's the way Saint Denis has beaten his opposition that's given him the it factor.
Poirier is one of the toughest fighters to pick against in the UFC because his consistency as one of the top lightweights for the last seven or eight years is unmatched. Although there's no real evidence that his best days are behind him (unless you want to count a devastating knockout loss to Justin Gaethje last July), I'm getting similar vibes as I was ahead of Ilia Topuria versus Alexander Volkanovski. In other words, this fight feels like it's destined to be a changing of the guard.
Poirier will have his moments and might even win some of the early rounds (a reminder that this is a rare five-round co-main event). But at some point, Saint Denis is going to catch him, put the lights out, and prove that he's a championship-level fighter.
The pick: Saint Denis, third-round knockout
Welterweight bout
Kevin Holland (25-10, 1 NC)
vs.
Michael Page (21-2)
On a card full of competitive matchups, Kevin Holland against Michael Page is one of the toughest to call.
That's at least partially because we've never seen Page against UFC competition. The British star signed with the world's biggest MMA promotion in late 2023 after spending nearly a decade in Bellator, and he's getting a fairly big test in his debut against No. 13-ranked welterweight Holland.
In what'll likely be a stand-up battle for 15 minutes, I tend to think Page will have the edge. "MVP" made a name for himself in the MMA world as an elite-level striker with a tricky style to figure out, and I suspect he'll stay a bit busier than Holland to emerge victorious in his first Octagon outing. But don't be surprised if Holland comes out and has a solid performance himself. This one could go either way.
The pick: Page, unanimous decision
Welterweight bout
Gilbert Burns (22-6)
vs.
Jack Della Maddalena (16-2)
This one's straightforward: Gilbert Burns needs to get Jack Della Maddalena to the ground to win this fight.
Burns has been one of the top welterweights in the UFC for a few years, but he'll fall out of contention if he loses a second straight fight against Australia's Della Maddalena, who's undefeated in the UFC and on the rise at 170 pounds.
The good news for Burns, one of the top jiu-jitsu practitioners in the sport, is that Della Maddalena, a striker, has been controlled on the mat before. Della Maddalena gave up three takedowns and more than five minutes of control time against Bassil Hafez in 2023, and if a newcomer like Hafez can do that to Della Maddalena, then so can Burns.
Expect Burns to use his grappling and ultimately grind out Della Maddalena over three rounds, sending the rising welterweight star back to the drawing board.
The pick: Burns, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Petr Yan (16-5)
vs.
Song Yadong (21-7-1, 1 NC)
A lot of people are counting out Petr Yan, thinking the former UFC bantamweight champion is past his prime. But he's going to prove his doubters wrong.
Yes, being 1-4 in his last five UFC appearances after starting his Octagon career with seven straight victories isn't exactly a good look. But look closer, and you'll realize it's not all bad news. Yan lost two split decisions (against former champ Aljamain Sterling and then a particularly controversial one against O'Malley), was disqualified, and then was dominated by No. 1 contender Dvalishvili. He has lost to no one besides the very best.
Though Song has looked great as of late in wins over Chris Gutierrez and Ricky Simon, this is a significant step up in competition for the Chinese striker. And it's a tough stylistic matchup for him because, frankly, just about everything Song does, Yan does better.
It's no guarantee that Yan will ever be a championship-level fighter again, but he'll show in the UFC 299 main-card opener that he has enough left in the tank to beat Song.
The pick: Yan, unanimous decision
