UFC 299 best bets: Will Petr Yan snap skid vs. Song Yadong?

Sean O'Malley is set to make the first defense of his UFC bantamweight title in a rematch against Marlon "Chito" Vera in the main event of UFC 299 on Saturday.

The card also features a pivotal lightweight bout between former interim champion Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint Denis.

O'Malley is comfortably favored to retain the 135-pound belt, sitting at -275 on theScore Bet. Despite suffering his only career loss against Vera in 2020, O'Malley deserves to be the favorite. He has grown a lot since their first fight and holds some key advantages in the stand-up department. Still, that price tag is a bit expensive for our liking. Pass.

Before the action gets underway at Kaseya Center in Miami, here are the two best bets for the event.

Straight bet: Petr Yan (-125) to beat Song Yadong

It's been almost two-and-a-half years since Yan, a former bantamweight champion, got his hand raised in the Octagon. Understandably, there has been a lot of talk about his recent downfall. On Thursday, at the UFC 299 prefight press conference, O'Malley joked Yan was one loss from leaving the UFC and starting to bare knuckle box.

But if you look a little closer, it's not all bad news for Yan. He suffered back-to-back split decision losses to O'Malley, the current champ, and Aljamain Sterling, the former champ. And then he was blown out of the water by Merab Dvalishvili, the No. 1 contender in the division. In other words, Yan has lost to the best of the best.

He's taking a fairly significant step down in competition Saturday against Song, a rising contender ranked No. 7 in the division. Although Song has looked good as of late, this is a favorable matchup for Yan. Both Yan and Song like to box, and Yan is tough to beat in that area. Side with the more established fighter to get back on track and show he is still a contender at 135 pounds.

Straight bet: Gilbert Burns (+150) to beat Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena could emerge as one of the top welterweights in the UFC with a win over Burns on Saturday, but Burns has a good shot of playing spoiler.

This matchup will come down to whether Burns decides to initiate grappling exchanges often enough. Della Maddalena is a crisp boxer and almost guaranteed to beat "Durinho" on the feet. But on the ground, it's a different story. Burns is one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners not just in the welterweight division, but in the entire promotion.

Della Maddalena gave up three takedowns in a bout against Bassil Hafez last summer, and with it came six minutes, 48 seconds of control time for his opponent. If a newcomer like Hafez can do that to Della Maddalena, surely Burns can, too.

At 37 years old, Burns will come through as the underdog and prove that you shouldn't count him out yet.

Here are the full odds for UFC 299 on March 7:

Main card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)

• Sean O'Malley (-275) vs. Marlon Vera (+225)
• Benoit Saint Denis (-220) vs. Dustin Poirier (+180)
• Kevin Holland (-135) vs. Michael Page (+115)
• Jack Della Maddalena (-180) vs. Gilbert Burns (+150)
• Petr Yan (-125) vs. Song Yadong (+105)

Preliminary card (ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET)

• Curtis Blaydes (-110) vs. Jailton Almeida (-110)
• Maycee Barber (-200) vs. Katlyn Cerminara (+170)
• Mateusz Gamrot (-475) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+350)
• Kyler Phillips (-220) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+180)

Early preliminary card (ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET)

• Ion Cutelaba (-125) vs. Philipe Lins (+105)
• Michel Pereira (-150) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+125)
• Robelis Despaigne (-360) vs. Josh Parisian (+275)
• Asu Almabayev (-600) vs. CJ Vergara (+425)
• Maryna Moroz (-235) vs. Joanne Wood (+190)