UFC 302 best bets: Will Strickland, Costa go the distance?

Islam Makhachev is set to make the third defense of his UFC lightweight title against former interim champ Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 302 on Saturday.

The card also features a high-stakes middleweight bout between ex-titleholder Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa.

Makhachev is heavily favored to retain the 155-pound belt, sitting at -600 on theScore Bet. That's too hefty a price to take straight up and arguably even in a parlay. Unless you think Poirier can pull off a miracle, stay away from this fight.

Here are two of the best bets for the event before the action gets underway at Prudential Center in Newark.

Prop bet: Strickland-Costa goes the distance (+105)

Strickland has gone to the judges' scorecards in seven of his last nine UFC bouts. The only finishes in that span were a TKO win over Abus Magomedov, who proved not to be on Strickland's level, and a knockout loss to Alex Pereira, now considered one of the most dangerous men in the sport and the current light heavyweight champion.

Costa has had a similar percentage of fights go the distance in recent years. He's gone the full 15 or 25 minutes in four of his last five trips to the Octagon dating back to 2019. The only finish was a defeat to Israel Adesanya, who was the middleweight champ at the time. Costa started his UFC career in 2017 as a finishing machine, knocking out his first four opponents. But ever since he started taking on elite-level middleweights, he's gone to the scorecards more often than not.

With Strickland and Costa squaring off against each other this weekend, it would be a surprise if this one ends early. Costa has the best shot at a finish, as he proved in his last fight - a unanimous decision loss to former champ Robert Whittaker - that he's still one of the most powerful fighters in the division; Costa rocked Whittaker late in the first round to nearly seal the biggest win of his career. Strickland, on the other hand, is considered more of a volume boxer.

Though Strickland is the rightful betting favorite, Costa has the tools to keep the fight competitive enough to make it to the final horn - and the chin to survive Strickland's biggest punches. At plus-money, this prop seems like a bit of a steal.

Straight bet: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to beat Randy Brown (+155)

Brown is hot off a knockout win over Muslim Salikhov in February and has won two in a row, so it's not a surprise that he's the favorite against Zaleski dos Santos. But the Brazilian is being undervalued a bit here.

A UFC fighter since 2015, Zaleski dos Santos might've been a welterweight contender by now had it not been for a decent amount of inactivity throughout his career. Zaleski dos Santos is well-rounded and boasts victories over the likes of Strickland, who went on to capture the middleweight title in 2023, and current lightweight contender Benoit Saint Denis. And Zaleski dos Santos exceeded expectations in his last bout, fighting up-and-comer Rinat Fakhretdinov to a majority draw despite being a sizable underdog.

Of course, Zaleski dos Santos will be at a significant size disadvantage in this fight. He's 5-foot-11 with a 73-inch reach, whereas Brown is tall for the division at 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach. But Zaleski dos Santos will more than make up for that with his ground ability. Brown wants to maintain distance on the feet and potentially knock Zaleski dos Santos out, but I expect Zaleski dos Santos will surprise MMA fans by implementing a grappling game plan and having success.

Brown always seems to come up short when he's on the cusp of breaking into the top 15, and Zaleski dos Santos will continue that trend as the 37-year-old picks up a win that finally shows his true potential as a 170-pound contender.

Main card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)

• Islam Makhachev (-600) vs. Dustin Poirier (+400)
• Sean Strickland (-245) vs. Paulo Costa (+200)
• Kevin Holland (-320) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+250)
• Alex Morono (-265) vs. Niko Price (+215)
• Randy Brown (-185) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+155)

Preliminary card (ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET)

• Cesar Almeida (-120) vs. Roman Kopylov (+100)
• Jailton Almeida (-340) vs. Alexandr Romanov (+260)
• Grant Dawson (-550) vs. Joe Solecki (+375)
• Jake Matthews (-160) vs. Phil Rowe (+135)

Early preliminary card (ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET)

• Bassil Hafez (-450) vs. Mickey Gall (+325)
• Ailin Perez (-195) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+165)
• Andre Lima (-270) vs. Mitch Raposo (+220)