UFC 304 predictions: Will the English rule Manchester?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 304 in Manchester, theScore's Alex Chippin fills in for a vacationing Nick Baldwin and makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Welterweight championship

Leon Edwards (22-3, 1 NC)
vs.
Belal Muhammad (23-3, 1 NC)

At first glance, you might think Muhammad can utilize his world-class wrestling to grind out a five-round decision over a predominant striker in Edwards. But keep in mind that both Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington thought similarly, and Edwards turned them aside with relative ease in his last two fights.

The problem Muhammad faces is that even if he can secure takedowns, he's never been one to do much with them. The 36-year-old has just one career submission on his resume, and he wrestles to maintain position more than to set up ground-and-pound. Moreover, Edwards had no problem getting back to his feet against Usman and Covington, two equally credentialed wrestlers as Muhammad.

That brings us to the standup department, where Edwards is significantly more active and perhaps the most technical striker in the division. His lack of finishing ability - the Usman head kick notwithstanding - gives his opponents chances over 25 minutes, but Muhammad will need to fight more violently than usual to capitalize.

The pick: Edwards, decision

Interim heavyweight championship

Tom Aspinall (14-3)
vs.
Curtis Blaydes (18-4, 1 NC)

Like his blue corner compadre Muhammad, Blaydes holds an advantage over the champion in pure wrestling. But like Muhammad, his prowess hasn't resulted in submissions - Blaydes doesn't have one to his name, in fact.

That means this fight, like many heavyweight battles, likely comes down to who lands a power shot first. And it's hard to doubt Aspinall there given his agility, precision, and 11 career KOs, especially against a contender like Blaydes, who's been knocked out four times.

One factor to watch: Aspinall has never gone two full rounds. If Blaydes can grapple early and force Aspinall to expend energy (easier said than done since Aspinall is very well-rounded), the American could be in a prime position to win this in the later rounds. Right now, though, it feels like Aspinall has the momentum of the world behind him.

The pick: Aspinall, 1st-round TKO

Lightweight bout

King Green (32-15, 1 NC)
vs.
Paddy Pimblett (21-3)

(Note: Green has legally changed his first name from Bobby to King.)

Scousers don't get knocked out. But they do get hit a lot, and that'll be a problem for Pimblett against someone with as much output as Green.

While Green has suffered a handful of knockouts, Pimblett doesn't hit like Jalin Turner, Dustin Poirier, or the other power punchers who have caught him. Therefore, Pimblett's clearest path to victory is on the ground, where he's a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and has submitted other grapplers like Kazula Vargas and Jordan Leavitt. The problem in this matchup is that Green fights with his hands down, a style that carries risk but also helps him react to takedown attempts.

On the feet, Green is the faster, more crisp puncher, and his cardio won't flutter over 15 minutes. Expect Pimblett to come out on fire in front of his home fans, but unless he can crack Green in the pocket, the Liverpool native will have a tough time crossing the finish line.

The pick: Green, decision

Other main-card predictions: Christian Leroy Duncan def. Gregory Rodrigues by 2nd-round TKO; Giga Chikadze def. Arnold Allen by decision