UFC 305 predictions: Will Adesanya regain the throne?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 305 in Perth, Australia, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Middleweight championship

Dricus Du Plessis (21-2)
vs.
Israel Adesanya (24-3)

Eleven months after losing the middleweight title in stunning fashion to Sean Strickland, Israel Adesanya is back to try to prove he's once again the best in the world.

To do so, he'll have to get through Dricus Du Plessis, the South African fighter who awkwardly punched his way to the top of the division with a split-decision win over Strickland in January.

On paper, Du Plessis-Adesanya is an extremely competitive fight, and I've been going back and forth all week. Initially, I thought I was going to pick Adesanya, and then I was leaning toward Du Plessis, but I've finally landed on ... and new.

Du Plessis needs to make the fight ugly to retain his title. Adesanya, as everyone knows by now, is extremely technical and sharp on the feet. He's one of the best strikers in the sport. At a distance, Adesanya will use his jab, kicks, and a variety of other strikes to outpoint Du Plessis - either en route to a decision or a knockout win.

If Du Plessis can put pressure on Adesanya like Strickland did last year, it'll be a whole different fight. He thrives when he's on the attack, and he also has a solid takedown game up his sleeve that could give Adesanya trouble. Du Plessis' style is awkward, but at this point, you'd be a fool to say it's not effective or that he's not a talented fighter. No one goes 7-0 in the UFC and wins a championship without being elite. That said, Du Plessis is far from perfect. His defense isn't great, and it's reasonable to wonder how good his cardio is.

Perhaps the biggest factor in the fight is whether Adesanya is still in his prime. He had a horrible showing against Strickland, and at 35 years old with a truckload of experience (both in MMA and kickboxing) on his resume, we may have seen the best version of "The Last Stylebender" come and go. But my guess is it's not quite time to say goodbye to Adesanya as a championship-caliber fighter - that his fight against Strickland was a poor night at the office, an anomaly, a bad style matchup. And that against Du Plessis, he can be more effective on the feet and pick apart "Stillknocks" en route to a decisive victory.

The pick: Adesanya, unanimous decision

Flyweight bout

Kai Kara-France (24-11, 1 NC)
vs.
Steve Erceg (12-2)

Perth's Steve Erceg is looking to rebound from a loss to champion Alexandre Pantoja when he takes on Kai Kara-France in a high-stakes flyweight bout.

Many thought Erceg - who made his UFC debut in May 2023 - was in over his head against Pantoja when they squared off at UFC 301 three months ago. But instead, he proved in a narrow defeat that he's a top-tier flyweight. And I expect him to follow up that performance with a victory over Kara-France, firmly entrenching himself in the group of top 125-pound contenders.

For someone with his level of experience, Erceg is a very technical striker. And although Kara-France has brutal knockout power (just ask Cody Garbrandt), I suspect Erceg will be able to get the best of the striking exchanges and ultimately win the battle as long as he can stay away from Kara-France's power. It'll be a competitive fight, but there'll be no doubt Erceg deserves to get his hand raised after 15 minutes.

The pick: Erceg, unanimous decision

Other main-card predictions: Mateusz Gamrot def. Dan Hooker by decision; Tai Tuivasa def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik by knockout; Carlos Prates def. Li Jingliang by TKO