4 biggest storylines ahead of UFC 306

UFC 306, the promotion's monumental event at Sphere in Las Vegas in celebration of Mexican Independence Day, is upon us.

In Saturday's main event, Sean O'Malley defends the bantamweight title for the second time against his toughest challenge yet: No. 1-ranked contender Merab Dvalishvili. In the co-headliner, women's flyweight champion Alexa Grasso looks to complete her trilogy with former champ Valentina Shevchenko.

Here are four key storylines ahead of the second-ever Noche UFC event:

Will a UFC event at Sphere live up to expectations?

The UFC hasn't hyped up any event in recent memory more than UFC 306. But it's for good reason: The promotion is set to make history by holding the first-ever live sporting event at Sphere, the year-old, groundbreaking, $2.3-billion arena whose 580,000-square-foot outer LED display looks like something out of a Sci-Fi movie.

Over the last several months, UFC CEO Dana White has taken every opportunity - every press conference, every podcast appearance - to tell MMA fans just how historic and one-of-a-kind Saturday's event is going to be. White has said the 10-fight card will be a love letter to Mexican combat sports - both MMA and boxing - and feature mini-films between matchups that tell a wider story.

But what will a mixed martial arts event at Sphere - which has only held concerts, an immersive film, and the 2024 NHL Draft so far - look like? Will it be a resounding success that leaves fans begging the UFC to go back, or will it be a colossal failure that guarantees next year's Noche UFC will be at T-Mobile Arena?

When you combine this extreme level of technology with MMA, many things could go right - but many things could go wrong. The event may be a home run as it pertains to the storytelling of Mexican heritage, but Sphere's overwhelming nature might distract the fights themselves. The massive LED backdrop could even be an issue for the fighters as they're competing.

UFC 306 is one of the most ambitious - and expensive - events the promotion has ever attempted. Whether or not Sphere is suited to host the world's biggest MMA promotion is a question that can only be answered Saturday night.

Could Dvalishvili leave the UFC with a loss?

Although O'Malley is the clear A-side in the UFC 306 main event as the defending champion and one of the five or six biggest draws in the promotion, perhaps the most interesting storyline revolves around his challenger, Dvalishvili.

Before you scoff at the idea that this could be Dvalishvili's last fight in the UFC, let me be clear: Dvalishvili is typically the kind of fighter a promotion would want on their roster forever. He has a fun personality, likes to stay active, and is damn good at what he does. It's extremely difficult to win 10 fights in a row, especially in the deep 135-pound division - and Dvalishvili has done it with minimal resistance.

But, ahead of UFC 306, Dvalishvili's relationship with White has seemingly become fragile. Just two weeks ago, the former posted a picture of a cut he suffered during training, and the latter blasted him for publicizing it so close to the biggest fight of his life. And then Dvalishvili posted a video of him removing his own stitches with kitchen scissors - you don't have to be a doctor to know you shouldn't do that - leading White to conclude that Dvalishvili was messing with him.

It wasn't the first time White had something negative to say about Dvalishvili either. White was critical of him when Dvalishvili's friend and training partner, Aljamain Sterling, held the bantamweight title and the pair refused to face off. Clearly, Dvalishvili isn't on the best terms with the UFC - and perhaps White will decide it's best to part ways with the Georgian contender if he fails to become bantamweight champion against O'Malley.

Is this Shevchenko's last chance to regain the title?

Shevchenko is the undisputed second-greatest fighter in women's MMA history behind Amanda Nunes. The former's resume in the flyweight division is unmatched: "Bullet" defended the title seven times between 2018 and 2023. But if Shevchenko loses to Grasso on Saturday, her dreams of becoming a two-time champion could be over.

Shevchenko is 36 years old and has been around combat sports for a long time. She began her career in Muay Thai and kickboxing in 2003 before eventually transitioning to MMA full-time. That's a lot of wear and tear on her body, even if she's won more fights than she's lost.

After Shevchenko dropped the 125-pound belt to Grasso in March 2023 - and then fought the Mexican to a split draw in their September 2023 rematch - there was an argument that Shevchenko had lost a step. She was still competitive at the championship level, but a submission loss and a draw in back-to-back fights were far different results than four knockout wins in seven successful title defenses. The kind of dominance we were used to seeing from Shevchenko had disappeared.

If Shevchenko beats Grasso, all of this goes out the window. But if she loses again, it'll be a tough - if not impossible - road back to the top. She's not getting any younger, and the women's flyweight division continues to bring in new talent.

Will Ortega have any issues making it to his fight with Lopes?

When any MMA fan looks at Saturday's fight card and sees Brian Ortega versus Diego Lopes on the docket, they probably think back to the chaotic scenes at UFC 303.

Ortega and Lopes were scheduled to square off in June, pitting a former title challenger against a rising star in a marquee featherweight fight. But Ortega's weight-cutting issues forced the matchup up to 155 pounds, and then Ortega pulled out just hours before the fight was supposed to take place, citing illness. Las Vegas resident and all-around gangster Dan Ige made history by stepping in on extremely short notice and fighting Lopes to a hard-fought decision.

Three months later, Ortega and Lopes are ready to try again.

Ortega shouldn't have any issues with the weight cut, considering the fight was booked on two weeks' notice last time and he doesn't have a history of missing weight. But "T-City" does keep talking about wanting to move to lightweight after this fight. If he's not careful, he might find himself missing the mark again.