UFC 306 predictions: Will Dvalishvili end the O'Malley era?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 306 in Las Vegas, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Bantamweight championship

Sean O'Malley (18-1, 1 NC)
vs.
Merab Dvalishvili (17-4)

Sean O'Malley could cement himself as the biggest star in the UFC not named Conor McGregor with an impressive victory in the main event of the promotion's highly anticipated debut at Sphere this weekend in Las Vegas. But there is a man who will be trying to put a swift end to the Suga Era instead - Merab Dvalishvili.

O'Malley-Dvalishvili was one of the best and most intriguing matchups the UFC could put together in 2024, because neither man has fought someone like this before. O'Malley is taller and longer than all of Dvalishvili's past UFC opponents, and Dvalishvili is a better wrestler than anyone O'Malley has faced. It's a truly thrilling clash of styles, and it's no surprise the odds are close. O'Malley is listed as a -130 favorite on theScore Bet and Dvalishvili a +110 underdog.

Long before the fight was a real thing, and even after it was announced, I thought I was going to pick Dvalishvili to dethrone O'Malley. For a while, the Georgian fighter has felt kind of like the division's uncrowned champion. He's not one of Dana White's favorite fighters, so he essentially had to force the UFC to give him a title shot by winning 10 fights in a row. And throughout that winning streak, it's the dominance that Dvalishvili has shown - particularly against former champ Petr Yan - that have made people wonder whether anyone at 135 pounds can beat him.

But as we've gotten closer to UFC 306, I've found myself growing to the idea that O'Malley is Dvalishvili's kryptonite.

Some might say O'Malley was a bit overhyped after his win on Dana White's Contender Series in 2017. He had some good and not-so-good performances in his first few years in the UFC. But in the last two years, something clicked. O'Malley strung together a few wins - over Yan, Aljamain Sterling, and Marlon "Chito" Vera - that rightfully put him up there with the best pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC.

The improvements are evident. O'Malley's control of range on the feet, and the precision, timing, and power in his striking, are all second to none. And his takedown defense is competent, which is very important if he wants to get past Dvalishvili.

Appropriately nicknamed "The Machine," Dvalishvili overwhelms his opponents with a kind of pace and cardio that shouldn't even be allowed in a cage fight. He gets stronger the longer a fight goes, and he'll never, ever quit. He eats other bantamweights alive in the clinch and, more often than not, ends up on top of them. He is a nightmare matchup for a lot of people in the division.

Dvalishvili is without a doubt the hardest matchup O'Malley will have faced to date. However, Dvalishvili is a human being, and he has been rocked in fights before. Marlon Moraes had him on the ropes, and Henry Cejudo tagged him good, too. Dvalishvili is tough, but he's never been hit by someone like O'Malley. And you don't want to get hit by O'Malley - just ask Dvalishvili's teammate, Sterling.

This fight is extremely close on paper, but there's a good chance it'll end up being lopsided. It all depends where it plays out. If O'Malley keeps it on the feet, he'll pick apart Dvalishvili and maybe finish him. If Dvalishvili is relentless with takedowns and pressure, he'll seize the throne. But based on the wide gap in skill in the stand-up department, and Dvalishvili's tendency to leave himself open to the occasional big shot, my gut is telling me this is ultimately O'Malley's fight to lose.

The pick: O'Malley, second-round TKO

Women's flyweight championship

Alexa Grasso (16-3-1)
vs.
Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1)

After a shocking submission and a back-and-forth thriller that ended in a split draw - and then a stint as coaches on "The Ultimate Fighter 32" - Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko will finally complete their trilogy in the co-main event.

Based on how their first two fights went, their third - and seemingly final - meeting is extremely tough to call. Shevchenko was winning the first fight in March 2023 before Grasso capitalized with a fourth-round rear-naked choke, and the September 2023 rematch came down to a single scorecard in the fifth round. In that fight, the two flyweights were competitive with each other on the feet and both had some big moments on the ground. Clearly, not a whole lot separates them.

My pick comes down to the fact that Grasso, 31, is five years younger than Shevchenko, 36, and the presumption that she has more gas in the tank. Shevchenko has been around the fight game for two decades, and it eventually catches up to everyone - even an all-time great like Shevchenko. Simply by getting caught with a choke and then fighting to a draw, the once-dominant Shevchenko - who has seven women's flyweight title defenses to her name - has shown signs of slowing down. And she's only getting older.

I suspect the trilogy bout will be roughly just as competitive as the rematch, and in a situation like that, it's easier to put your trust in the younger fighter with better reflexes. After an entertaining 25 minutes of action, some may even think Shevchenko did enough on the scorecards, but Grasso is going to edge it out again on Mexican Independence Day weekend.

The pick: Grasso, unanimous decision

Featherweight bout

Brian Ortega (16-3, 1 NC)
vs.
Diego Lopes (25-6)

When Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes were scheduled to fight at UFC 303 in June, you may - or may not - recall that I reluctantly leaned toward Ortega to win.

On a main card full of competitive matchups, this once again might be the most difficult pick to make. However, this time, I find myself leaning the other way.

Ortega looked fine on the scale Friday morning, proving that the mishap that led to the fight being moved to lightweight - and then canceled altogether - three months ago was a one-and-done thing. That said, Lopes is on a tear, and I'm no longer sure that Ortega is the man to stop him.

Both men excel in the grappling department, which means we could get a striking battle instead. And if that's the case, I favor Lopes ever so slightly on the feet to outpoint Ortega, earn the biggest victory of his career, and put himself in featherweight title contention.

The pick: Lopes, unanimous decision

Other main-card predictions: Daniel Zellhuber def. Esteban Ribovics by decision; Ronaldo Rodriguez def. Ode Osbourne by submission