UFC 307 predictions: Will Rountree end Pereira's reign?
Ahead of Saturday's UFC 307 in Salt Lake City, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.
Light heavyweight championship
Alex Pereira (11-2)
vs.
Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5, 1 NC)
Alex Pereira's third title defense against Khalil Rountree Jr. may not be the most anticipated fight of all time, but one thing is just about guaranteed - it'll end violently.
Pereira has six knockouts in eight UFC wins, while Rountree has seven in nine wins. These are two of the hardest-hitting, most dangerous fighters in the UFC we're talking about here. Pereira and Rountree have also both been knocked out before. If this fight goes 25 minutes without a finish, something has gone catastrophically wrong.
Pereira is a heavy -500 favorite to keep the belt around his waist, and that's no surprise. On paper, Pereira has too many advantages over Rountree for him not to win. The Brazilian is a former two-division champion in GLORY Kickboxing, and skill for skill, he's better than anyone at 205 pounds in the stand-up department. The best path to victory against Pereira is to take him down. But Rountree - a striker himself - has already said he doesn't plan to go that route.
Though Pereira should win, sometimes logic goes out the window when two people fight inside a cage for money. Salt Lake City, in particular, has been host to some shocking upsets over the last two years, including Leon Edwards' Hail Mary knockout of Kamaru Usman in August 2022 and Justin Gaethje's head-kick finish of Dustin Poirier in July 2023. Based on some of these past results in Utah's capital, perhaps Rountree is destined to capitalize on his unexpected title shot and shake up the light heavyweight division by beating Pereira.
When two devastating knockout artists face off in the Octagon, it's almost always a 50-50 fight because of the threat of a finish on both sides. Rountree ought be treated as a live underdog, but this fight could very well come down to who lands first.
All of that said, I have to lean toward the logical answer here - that Pereira will find Rountree's chin before Rountree finds his. And still.
The pick: Pereira, second-round knockout
Women's bantamweight championship
Raquel Pennington (16-8)
vs.
Julianna Pena (10-5)
It's tough to decide who will leave the cage Saturday night as the women's bantamweight champion, Raquel Pennington or Julianna Pena. Chances are it'll be a close fight.
Pennington is one of the least heralded UFC champions in recent memory, in part because her reign has come in the aftermath of Amanda Nunes' dominant run. But that's kind of how it's always been for Pennington, an accomplished but quiet fighter who's never had a ton of buzz. This is her chance to earn a big victory over the only person to beat Nunes in the last decade.
Pennington will enter the co-main event with the advantage in the striking department, while Pena has the edge on the ground. That means this fight will more or less come down to where it plays out. Pennington has solid takedown defense, but it's far from bulletproof. And Pena can be very aggressive in trying to get her opponents to the mat.
My gut says Pennington will stuff some takedowns and outstrike Pena in one or two rounds, but more often than not, Pena's grappling will be too much for the champion.
The pick: Pena, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Jose Aldo (32-8)
vs.
Mario Bautista (14-2)
UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo is looking to keep his two-division championship hopes alive when he takes on No. 11-ranked bantamweight Mario Bautista.
The oddsmakers slightly favor Bautista to get the job done, but to be honest, it feels like the line should be the other way around. Aldo returned from a two-year retirement in May and proved that he's still one of the best bantamweights in the UFC, sweeping up-and-comer Jonathan Martinez on the scorecards.
Bautista needs to get the fight to the ground to win, but Aldo has some of the best takedown defense in UFC history with a 91% defense rate. Considering Aldo stuffed all 16 of current bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili's takedown attempts when they fought in August 2022, I have no doubt Aldo will be able to keep the fight where he wants it against Bautista.
And that's why I'm picking Aldo in this matchup. On the feet, the Brazilian is still one of the best strikers in the world. He'll use his calculated stand-up game to overwhelm Bautista en route to another near-vintage performance for "The King of Rio."
The pick: Aldo, unanimous decision
Women's bantamweight bout
Ketlen Vieira (14-3)
vs.
Kayla Harrison (17-1)
The uncrowned queen of women's 135 pounds, Kayla Harrison, is looking to lock up a title shot with another dominant performance in her sophomore UFC appearance. And I have zero doubt the former two-time PFL champion will get her hand raised against Ketlen Vieira with ease.
The oddsmakers are probably disrespecting Vieira a bit too much (Harrison is a whopping -1150 favorite). Vieira is a veteran and has beaten the likes of former champs Holly Holm and Miesha Tate. But it's easy to see why Harrison is so heavily favored. She's a machine on the ground, and she cut through Holm like butter in her debut at UFC 300 in April. Harrison, who used to fight at 145 and 155 pounds, is ginormous for the division, and her strength is unmatched.
Vieira might be able to put up a fight for a while, but eventually Harrison will drown her on the mat.
The pick: Harrison, second-round submission
Other main-card prediction: Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland by decision