UFC 309 predictions: Can Miocic shock the world vs. Jones?

theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 309 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in New York.

Heavyweight championship

Jon Jones (27-1, 1 NC)
vs.
Stipe Miocic (20-4)

One of the greatest mixed martial artists we've ever seen, UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones returns from a 20-month layoff to make his first title defense against former two-time champ Stipe Miocic at Madison Square Garden.

Not too many people - including oddsmakers - are giving Miocic a shot to become the first to truly defeat Jones. theScore Bet has the 42-year-old as a +425 underdog. Jones is the rightful favorite, but don't have too much confidence in any scenario. Jones, 37, is coming off a devastating pectoral tear, which forced him out of a fight (due to injury) for just the second time in his UFC career. Neither of these guys are in their prime, which opens up the door - just a little bit - for chaos to ensue.

That said, this is still Jon Jones we're talking about. He's the man who's never legitimately lost a fight, and the man who sliced through Ciryl Gane as if he was butter the last time he stepped into the Octagon back in March 2023. One of the many reasons he's a future Hall of Famer and a championship-caliber fighter in his late 30s is his fight IQ. Jones is one of the smartest minds in the fight game, and he knows exactly how - and where - to win fights.

Sometimes it's on the feet, like when he fought an elite wrestler in Daniel Cormier. Sometimes it's on the mat, like when he fought an established Muay Thai fighter in Gane.

On Saturday, I see Jones mixing things up but primarily using his ground game to get the job done.

Miocic is a competent wrestler; longtime fans will remember he scored six takedowns and compiled over 16 minutes of control time to beat Mark Hunt pre-UFC title reign. But Miocic's best work over the last eight years has come standing up. There's an argument to be made that he's even a better pure boxer than Jones.

Jones has many tools in the striking department that could be effective against Miocic, such as oblique kicks, elbows, and high kicks. But again, an aging and smart fighter like Jones will almost always take the path of least resistance. We haven't seen much of Miocic off his back, so expect Jones to try to win rounds by pushing the former champ against the fence and scoring takedowns.

It's hard to say whether Jones will find a finish - Miocic is tough to put away - but I could see him either winning with ground-and-pound or a submission in the championship rounds.

The pick: Jones, fourth-round submission

Lightweight bout

Charles Oliveira (34-10, 1 NC)
vs.
Michael Chandler (23-8)

Charles Oliveira scored a knockout victory the first time he stepped into the cage with Michael Chandler three years ago. This time, I see the former UFC lightweight champion getting his hand raised with a trademark submission.

Not only is Oliveira the more skilled, dangerous fighter on paper, but Chandler spent the last two years waiting for a fight with Conor McGregor that never materialized. Now Chandler is back to try to revitalize his career at the age of 38. That'll be tough to do in a deep lightweight division that tends to favor younger talent.

Chandler absolutely has a puncher's chance - he nearly finished Oliveira in their first fight before succumbing to strikes himself - but it's exactly that: a puncher's chance. If Oliveira can keep Chandler at range on the feet, avoid the knockout blow, and then get hold of him, this is the Brazilian's fight to lose.

The pick: Oliveira, second-round submission

Middleweight bout

Bo Nickal (6-0)
vs.
Paul Craig (17-8-1)

Middleweight prospect Bo Nickal is looking to keep the train rolling in his fourth UFC fight. But Paul Craig has played spoiler before and is hoping to do so again.

Nickal is a whopping -1500 favorite on theScore Bet, which is quite wide given that Craig is his toughest challenge to date. But who are we kidding? Nickal's got this in the bag.

Young fighters often make significant improvements between each fight, so expect to see some new tricks from Nickal. I suspect he'll keep things on the feet in this matchup, even though he's a phenomenal wrestler, simply because of the threat of Craig's submissions. We've seen Craig get knocked out before, and I'm afraid the Scottish fighter is in for a rough one again.

The pick: Nickal, second-round TKO

Other main-card predictions: Karine Silva def. Viviane Araujo by decision; Mauricio Ruffy def. James Llontop by TKO