5 MMA predictions for 2025
Mixed martial arts provided many memorable moments in 2024, but now it's time to look ahead to the new year. Here are five predictions for 2025.
Jones retires without fighting Aspinall
It's been two months since Jon Jones' UFC heavyweight title defense against Stipe Miocic at Madison Square Garden, and the division is at a standstill, as many fans expected.
Jones, an all-time great nearing the end of his career, has said he'll retire if the UFC doesn't give him a superfight against light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira next. Meanwhile, UFC CEO Dana White - and almost the entire MMA community - wants Jones to face interim heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall in a long-awaited unification bout.
As big of a blockbuster as Jones-Pereira would be, it's not the right fight to make when Magomed Ankalaev should be next in line for a shot at Pereira's 205-pound title and Aspinall has held the interim heavyweight belt for over a year. Neither the UFC nor Jones will budge on what they want, and the heavyweight champ will announce his retirement with the possibility of returning for one last dance in 2026. Because, let's be honest, MMA retirements rarely stick.
Nunes announces return, books Harrison fight
Many fans expect Kayla Harrison to become the UFC women's bantamweight champion in 2025. Harrison is next in line to challenge Julianna Pena for the title and will be heavily favored to win that fight. But the 135-pound division is arguably the weakest in the promotion. So, even if Harrison wins and becomes a star, then what?
Enter Amanda Nunes.
The GOAT of women's MMA walked away from the sport as the champion in 2023, but the idea of a megafight against her former American Top Team teammate has always loomed. Nunes appeared to tease a comeback after Pena regained the title in October, and UFC CEO Dana White said he'd love to see "The Lioness" back in the Octagon.
Nunes has nothing to prove as a former two-time champion and future Hall of Famer. But at the same time, it feels like Harrison is the one person missing from her resume. That could be tempting enough for Nunes to announce she's coming out of retirement for a massive showdown against Harrison in early 2026.
UFC signs TV rights deals with ESPN and a streaming service
The UFC's media rights deal with ESPN expires in 2025, and the world is eager to see who lands the next multi-billion dollar contract.
The broadcasting landscape is changing rapidly, with streaming services like Amazon Prime Video and Netflix acquiring rights for major sports like the NFL, NBA, and NHL in an attempt to break into the market. Traditionally, TV networks have held a stronghold on the industry, but this could be the start of a major shift in how fans consume live sports. The UFC would be wise to follow suit.
The UFC will stick with ESPN as its primary U.S. broadcast partner, and pay-per-view events will remain exclusive to ESPN+. However, the promotion will also sign a deal with a streaming company and divvy up Fight Night cards between that platform and ESPN. Netflix seems to make the most sense, with the WWE - owned by the UFC's parent company, TKO - striking a huge deal with Netflix in 2024.
UFC pencils in Makhachev-Holloway lightweight title bout
Former UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway said after losing to Ilia Topuria in October that he planned to compete at lightweight moving forward. Holloway owns a win over the UFC's No. 3-ranked lightweight, Justin Gaethje (and not just any win, but theScore's Knockout of the Year and one of the most shocking moments in UFC history), so he's already well on his way to title contention.
After lightweight champion Islam Makhachev defends his belt against Arman Tsarukyan later in January at UFC 311, Charles Oliveira will be the only contender left who deserves a title shot. If Holloway can get back in the win column in the meantime, a fight between him and Makhachev will be what everyone wants to see by the end of 2025.
'Pitbull' challenges for UFC featherweight title
Wait a second. That "Pitbull"? The current Bellator featherweight champion? Challenging for a ... UFC title?
You got it.
Patricio Freire is one of several fighters to have spoken out in recent weeks against the PFL, which owns Bellator, over a lack of fights. Freire, who stepped into the cage just once in 2024, even requested his release from the promotion and said he wants to continue building his legacy in the UFC.
The PFL doesn't seem interested in letting Freire go, but it'll eventually realize it's the best thing for both parties. There's no point in keeping a disgruntled fighter under contract, especially if you can hardly afford him.
Once Freire inks a deal with the UFC, Dana White and Co. will give the Brazilian an immediate title shot just like they did with former Rizin FF star Kai Asakura. For one, Topuria will have likely defended his belt already in 2025 against either Alexander Volkanovski or Diego Lopes, and he'll be well on his way to clearing out the division. And second, is anyone really saying no to a Topuria-Freire fight? Didn't think so.