UFC 313 predictions: Will Pereira pass biggest test of title reign?
theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 313 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in Las Vegas.
Light heavyweight championship
Alex Pereira (12-2)
vs.
Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 NC)
Alex Pereira is getting the toughest test of his 205-pound title reign so far in his fourth defense.
Magomed Ankalaev presents a much different kind of challenge for "Poatan" than Jamahal Hill, Jiri Prochazka, and Khalil Rountree Jr. did. The 32-year-old Dagestani has a sharp stand-up game but, more importantly, can also dominate his opponents on the ground.
Ankalaev would be wise to wrestle Pereira early and often, as the champion has given up takedowns in five of 10 UFC bouts, including against Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz at light heavyweight. But it doesn't seem like a guarantee that Ankalaev will go that route. Ankalaev has relied on his striking a lot throughout his current 13-fight unbeaten streak, having not attempted more than one takedown in a fight since December 2022.
Both Pereira and Ankalaev have a clear path to victory in this matchup. Pereira, a former GLORY Kickboxing champion, needs to keep it on the feet where he shines. Meanwhile, Ankalaev likely needs to ground Pereira several times to snatch the belt from him. It'll all come down to whose game plan works better.
Throughout Pereira's run in the division, I've always thought Ankalaev would be the man to stop him. But when the UFC announced this fight in January, I had a sneaking suspicion that the Brazilian's reign wasn't going to end just yet - and I'm sticking with that. Yes, Pereira has been taken down before, but he ended up winning all of those fights, three by knockout. Ankalaev will probably get him down once or twice, but Pereira won't give up. And on the feet - where every round starts in this sport - I suspect Pereira's edge will be too much for Ankalaev to overcome.
Pereira had a slow start in his last fight against Rountree, but once he figured out his opponent and got some momentum, it was like a boulder rolling down a hill. There was no stopping the ferocious onslaught. Although I don't necessarily see Pereira scoring a finish in this fight - Ankalaev has never been knocked out - I expect him to get into a groove in the championship rounds and lock up another hard-fought victory.
The pick: Pereira, unanimous decision
Lightweight bout
Justin Gaethje (25-5)
vs.
Rafael Fiziev (12-3)
Justin Gaethje has beaten Rafael Fiziev before, and he can do it again.
Quite a bit has happened since Gaethje earned a majority decision win over Fiziev in a Fight of the Year candidate in March 2023. Gaethje suffered a potentially career-altering knockout loss to Max Holloway last spring, and Fiziev tore his ACL in a fight with Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023 and is just coming back now. Both guys are looking to redeem themselves, and Saturday's rematch could honestly come down to who's back to full form and who's not.
But it's hard to predict those things. So, based on what we know, I'm leaning toward Gaethje to win the rematch, which Fiziev notably accepted on less than two weeks' notice after Dan Hooker withdrew from the card because of an injury.
Gaethje thrives in these kinds of striker-versus-striker matchups, and his output was the difference-maker in what was a competitive fight against Fiziev two years ago. This time, Gaethje has promised to be even more aggressive, which should theoretically only help his case as the slugfest king. As long as Gaethje still has some gas left in the tank, he should be able to get back on track with another hard-fought - and exciting - win.
The pick: Gaethje, unanimous decision
Other main-card predictions: Jalin Turner def. Ignacio Bahamondes by decision; Amanda Lemos def. Iasmin Lucindo by decision; Mauricio Ruffy def. King Green by TKO