UFC 319 predictions: Will Chimaev seize the middleweight throne?
theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 319 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in Chicago.
Middleweight championship
Dricus Du Plessis (23-2)
vs.
Khamzat Chimaev (14-0)
One of the most anticipated fights of the year is here. Khamzat Chimaev will finally challenge for a title five years into his UFC career, taking on middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis in what's expected to be his toughest test to date.
What makes this matchup so exciting is its unpredictability. Chimaev could shoot a takedown and choke Du Plessis out in the first minute, and no one would be surprised. Du Plessis could survive the early storm and wear Chimaev down in the later rounds, and no one would be surprised. There are a bunch of ways it could go.
The fact that Du Plessis and Chimaev are a combined 17-0 in the UFC (and 37-2 overall) helps, too. These are two middleweight juggernauts meeting at the height of their powers. Du Plessis is an immovable object (he always wins, no matter how often it might look like he's trying to lose), and Chimaev is an unstoppable force. One of those things will no longer be true after Saturday.
Du Plessis' unorthodox style has done him wonders throughout his career, making it tempting to pick him for the upset. But Chimaev won't be denied a UFC title. Round 1 Chimaev might be the best fighter in MMA, and he'll put the pressure on Du Plessis early and maul him.
The pick: Chimaev, first-round submission
Featherweight bout
Lerone Murphy (16-0-1)
vs.
Aaron Pico (13-4)
The UFC isn't doing Aaron Pico any favors with this debut matchup against Lerone Murphy.
There's rightfully a lot of hype surrounding Pico's first Octagon appearance, as he was a top contender in Bellator and could receive a title shot with a win. There's also a good chance Murphy plays spoiler.
Murphy is a highly skilled, tactical striker. He used a smart game plan in his last fight against Josh Emmett, peppering the knockout artist with punches and kicks from the outside. That should also work well against Pico, an aggressive fighter with devastating power.
Murphy has also fought much steeper competition. He beat Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza in his last three fights, while Pico's biggest wins are against Henry Corrales, Pedro Carvalho, and Leandro Higo. Pico has looked terrific against the opponents he's been given, but I think it's fair to say he's never fought someone half as good as Murphy.
Although it's possible Pico is even better than we think and rises to the occasion, I'll take Murphy for the upset.
The pick: Murphy, unanimous decision
Welterweight bout
Geoff Neal (16-6)
vs.
Carlos Prates (21-7)
This fight could go either way. Carlos Prates is likely coming in with a chip on his shoulder after Ian Machado Garry halted his rapid rise in their April main event. Geoff Neal, meanwhile, owns just one win in the last three years and is looking to get back in the mix. Prates and Neal both know how to throw down and could be the front-runners to steal Fight of the Night from Du Plessis and Chimaev.
I'll take Prates, who has more upside than Neal at this point in their careers. Hopefully, he learned from the Garry fight that he needs to open up on the feet a bit more.
The pick: Prates, unanimous decision
Middleweight bout
Jared Cannonier (18-8)
vs.
Michael Page (23-3)
Michael "Venom Page" looked great in his first UFC middleweight appearance against Shara "Bullet" Magomedov earlier this year and is sticking around at 185 pounds (at least for now) to try to make a real run.
Standing in his way is Jared Cannonier, who scored a massive TKO win over Gregory Rodrigues in February to snap a two-fight losing streak and remind everyone he's still one of the top middleweights in the world.
Page being the favorite over Cannonier would've seemed insane when he was competing as a welterweight in Bellator, but it makes sense now. The Englishman is a sniper on the feet and a master at controlling distance. He should be able to dodge all the big punches Cannonier throws his way.
The pick: Page, unanimous decision
Flyweight bout
Tim Elliott (20-13-1)
vs.
Kai Asakura (21-5)
Former Rizin FF champion Kai Asakura's UFC debut against flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja couldn't have gone worse, getting choked unconscious in just over two minutes. But this fight against Tim Elliott should produce a better result. Elliott, a 20-fight Octagon veteran, admitted this week he's nothing more than a gatekeeper, and that's exactly the kind of fighter Asakura should - and will - beat.
The pick: Asakura, second-round TKO
