3 reasons why Carlos Condit will defeat Robbie Lawler at UFC 195

by
Pat Lovell / USA TODAY

Carlos Condit has tasted gold before. Now he wants to get his hands on the real thing.

It's been almost four years since Condit defeated Nick Diaz for the interim UFC welterweight championship, an achievement that few viewed as a legitimate claim to be the best of the division. When incumbent champ Georges St-Pierre returned, Condit gave him a good fight but failed to cement himself as the No. 1 guy at 170 pounds.

At UFC 195 on Jan. 2, Condit gets his second shot at the true title. He couldn't have asked for a more crowd-pleasing opponent than Robbie Lawler. Still, "The Natural Born Killer" is hunting for more than a Fight of the Night bonus.

Here are three factors that could lead to the biggest win of Condit's career:

Don't sweat the technique

There are few fighters in the welterweight division more technical than Condit. He is a striker with supernatural patience, able to exploit the smallest mistake in search of a finish.

Condit's first-round wins over Dan Hardy and Dong Hyun Kim are perfect examples of how he is on another level when it comes to precision. He put out Hardy with a left hook a millisecond before the Brit landed one of his own. And Kim looked like he was moving in slow motion when Condit disintegrated him with a flying knee.

It's a skill that allows Condit to capitalize against the most aggressive attackers, a category that just happens to include Lawler.

Sneaky submissions

The scary thing about Condit is that before he became known for his stand-up prowess, he was an absolute assassin on the mat.

In his previous life in the WEC, Condit took on four straight opponents who were considered to be grappling specialists and he submitted all of them. It has been seven years since his last submission win, but don't sleep on his ground skills. He is extremely comfortable fighting off of his back or working to return to his feet if he's in danger.

That underrated submission game is a problem for any fighter with a history of being outclassed on the mat, a category that just happens to include Lawler.

Break it down

As exciting as it is when Condit is able to score a first-round stoppage, he is equally adept at dissecting and outpointing the opposition.

Martin Kampmann, who had beaten Condit in a previous meeting, actually did well in the first round of their rematch, but it was Condit who adapted and found a way to pull away before scoring a TKO in the fourth.

Thiago Alves was thought to be a match for Condit in the kickboxing department, but Condit picked him apart for 10 minutes with only a doctor stoppage saving Alves from further abuse.

And then there was the dismantling of Diaz. Faced with an opponent willing to come forward and throw from every angle, Condit hypnotized Diaz into chasing him around for five rounds while consistently getting the better of the exchanges.

Condit excels against like-minded stand-up fighters, a category that just happens to include ... well, you know.

For more UFC 195 coverage, check out the keys to Lawler's success.

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