Prior to every UFC event, theScore's Alexander K. Lee gives you his predictions for all the main-card fights.
Light Heavyweight Bout
Anthony Johnson (11-5 UFC, 20-5)
vs.
Ryan Bader (13-4 UFC, 20-4)
Bader is exactly the kind of opponent that drives Johnson nuts. Dating back to his welterweight days, Johnson has shown he can be worn down by a dedicated grappling attack. Not being able to let loose with his hellacious fisticuffs usually leaves Johnson tired and frustrated even when he's able to stay upright.
The question, then, is which fighter has grown more over the past few years. There’s no doubt that Johnson has shed a lot of his bad habits during this spectacular run at 205 pounds. But Bader is coming off of back-to-back wins over Rashad Evans and Phil Davis, two top-10 light heavyweights that would have given Bader nightmares in the past. As dangerous as Johnson’s knockout power is, Bader's wrestling acumen and improved striking should be enough to counter it.
THE PICK: Bader
Heavyweight Bout
Josh Barnett (6-2 UFC, 34-7)
vs.
Ben Rothwell (5-3 UFC, 35-9)
Heavyweight fights are tough to pick under the best circumstances. Both fighters are usually packing so much power that one mistake is all it takes for a finish to happen. On paper, the grappling advantage must be given to Barnett and the striking advantage to Rothwell, but neither man is a slouch in the other area.
It’s going to come down to who can implement their game plan first. Barnett is typically the faster starter, so he gets the edge there. It's certainly possible that Rothwell will weather whatever Barnett has to offer until he's able to find room for a kill shot of his own, but don’t bet on it. Barnett is going to drag Rothwell down to the mat and get the tap out.
THE PICK: Barnett
Bantamweight Bout
Iuri Alcantara (7-3 UFC, 31-6)
vs.
Jimmie Rivera (2-0 UFC, 18-1)
Alcantara is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the bantamweight division. However, he lacks the extra gear to put him over the top. Add in his tendency to fade in later rounds of closely contested fights, and this looks like a step-up fight for Rivera.
Dating back to 2008, "El Terror" has won 17 straight fights dating back to 2008, and he showed plenty of grit in a seesaw battle with Pedro Munhoz last November. The New Jersey native will get a boost from the home crowd, and his takedown defense should prevent Alcantara from going for any significant submissions. Rivera takes this one by decision.
THE PICK: Rivera
Welterweight Bout
Sage Northcutt (2-0 UFC, 7-0)
vs.
Bryan Barberena (1-1 UFC, 10-3)
This matchup is vaguely reminiscent of the Stephen Thompson-Matt Brown bout in July 2015. In that match, "Wonderboy" was a world champion kickboxer who was matched up with Brown in his second UFC fight, and was promptly bloodied for three rounds. Both men went on to great success afterwards, but at the time it was a rude awakening for Thompson.
Could Northcutt and his vaunted karate pedigree be in for the same lesson on Sunday? The 19-year-old had difficulty with Cody Pfister's wrestling in his last fight, and you can expect Barberena to execute a similar game plan. Northcutt’s fancy flips and kicks won't be much use if he's on his back.
Fortunately for Northcutt, he’s still at the stage of his career where he has the athleticism to make up for any technical deficiencies. Were Barberena an elite wrestler or a larger opponent (keep in mind, he is also moving up from lightweight), he might be a more convincing spoiler. As it is, Northcutt’s raw ability will carry him to another win.
THE PICK: Northcutt