Prior to every UFC event, theScore's Alexander K. Lee gives you his predictions for all the main-card fights.
Welterweight Bout
Donald Cerrone (15-4 UFC, 28-7)
vs.
Alex Oliveira (3-1 UFC, 13-2-1)
These fighters have more in common than a nickname. When Tim Means had to bow out of this fight with Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone, it didn't take long for the UFC to plug in Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira. Three of Oliveira's four appearances have been as a short-notice replacement and he's willingly bounced between two weight classes. It's the kind of laissez-faire approach that Cerrone would appreciate.
This is going to be an exciting fight from start to finish, though that could be a relatively short stretch given the firepower of both men. Cerrone thrives against opponents who are willing to bring the action to him. He won't be at the same reach disadvantage that Oliveira's previous opponents faced, so expect Oliveira to overextend at some point. When he does, Cerrone will be waiting to strike. Tough as he is, Oliveira won't be able to take too many counter shots before he's put down for the count.
THE PICK: Cerrone
Middleweight Bout
Derek Brunson (5-1 UFC, 14-3)
vs.
Roan Carneiro (3-3 UFC, 20-9)
If the Roan Carneiro that choked out Mark Munoz in under two minutes shows up on Sunday, it could mean the end of Derek Brunson's winning streak.
Brunson has been flying under the radar despite winning five of his last six, including first-round finishes in his past two outings. He's a strong wrestler with developing power in his hands, but his main concern will be if he can control the action when the fight goes to the mat. Carneiro is no slouch working off of his back.
He'll have to work for it, but a smart, measured game plan should guide Brunson to victory.
THE PICK: Brunson
Bantamweight Bout
Cody Garbrandt (2-0 UFC, 7-0)
vs.
Augusto Mendes (0-0 UFC, 5-0)
In team sports parlance, this would be known as a "trap game." Garbrandt was expecting to face slugger John Lineker, but when Lineker was removed with a case of dengue fever, he was replaced by grappling ace Augusto Mendes.
The lightly tested Mendes is going to need to show a lot more than his submission game to upset the well-rounded Garbrandt. It's unlikely that Mendes will be able to formulate an advanced strategy on less than a week's notice. Expect Garbrandt to push Mendes to exhaustion and finish him in the second round.
THE PICK: Garbrandt
Featherweight Bout
Dennis Bermudez (7-3 UFC, 14-5)
vs.
Tatsuya Kawajiri (3-1 UFC, 35-8-2)
It's hard to imagine Tatsuya Kawajiri having the wrestling advantage here, especially in the latter stages of his career. The Japanese star is eight years older than Dennis Bermudez, and he represents a ripe target for Bermudez to add to his resume.
Prior to his current two-fight skid, Bermudez showed improved stand-up to go along with his powerful takedowns. It's those takedowns that will dictate the fight. Kawajiri had problems with the fast-paced attack of Clay Guida and if Bermudez is able to emulate that style, it will give the younger fighter a huge advantage. The gritty Kawajiri has not been finished since 2011, but Bermudez will be ahead on the scorecards after 15 minutes.
THE PICK: Bermudez
Middleweight Bout
Chris Camozzi (7-7 UFC, 22-10)
vs.
Joe Riggs (5-6 UFC, 41-16)
The sad fact is that while Joe Riggs still has the skills to compete, a lifetime of fighting has taken its toll on him. He lacks the explosiveness that once made him a terror in four weight classes.
Chris Camozzi is no world beater, a .500 fighter without any standout attributes. He's a solid B in most categories, which is faint praise for someone in the UFC. Still, at this stage in Riggs' career, a good athlete with a B-grade skill set is all that is needed to beat him.
THE PICK: Camozzi
Lightweight Bout
James Krause (3-3 UFC, 22-7)
vs.
Shane Campbell (1-1 UFC, 12-3)
The gutsy Shane Campbell is going to surprise people here. Up against a rangy opponent like James Krause, Campbell is going to have to initiate the action early or face the prospect of getting sniped for three rounds. He looked good in his last fight against Elias Silverio and he has the technical kickboxing to exploit Krause if there's an opening.
A prolonged ground battle favors Krause, so expect Campbell to do everything in his power to avoid that scenario. Campbell will frustrate Krause en route to a KO or decision win.
THE PICK: Campbell
