Warriors continue to cost bettors despite high level of play

Through the first 39 games of the 2016-2017 season, the Golden State Warriors own the best record in the National Basketball Association. Through the first 39 games of the 2015-2016 season, the Warriors also owned the best record in the National Basketball Association. In both instances, the franchise’s metrics are nearly identical as it pertains to offensive and defensive efficiency, turnover ratio, scoring differential and pace.

But the addition of 2013-2014 league MVP Kevin Durant isn’t the only difference between this year’s iteration of the Golden State Warriors and last year’s team. From a wagering perspective, it’s been night and day between the two units.

Last season, when three-point sniper and back-to-back MVP winner Steph Curry was guiding the Dubs to an NBA-record 73-win regular season, no team in the Association turned a bigger profit for its backers than the Warriors.

This season, no team has cost its backers more money than the Golden State Warriors—not even the Orlando Magic.

Take a look:

2016-2017: 33-6 SU (1st in NBA), 15-23-1 ATS (30th in NBA)
2015-2016: 73-9 SU (1st in NBA), 45-35-2 ATS (1st in NBA)

What’s amazing about this 180-degree turn for the Warriors as it pertains to a gambling perspective is that the team is posting damn near identical statistics when comparing this year with last year. Golden State ranks first in offensive efficiency and scoring differential in each of the last two seasons, fourth in defensive efficiency and second in pace. One of the only differences is that the club ranked 19th in turnover ratio last season (13.5) as opposed to 21st this season (13.4). And that difference is a mere tenth of a point.

Was it a second-half, post-All-Star break kick that made the difference last season for the Dubs? Let’s take a look at how the team performed through its first 39 games last year and compare it to Golden State’s first 39 games this year:

2016-2017: 33-6 SU (1st in NBA), 15-23-1 ATS (30th in NBA)
2015-2016: 36-3 SU (1st in NBA), 23-15-1 ATS (1st in NBA)

So what gives? Golden State was only three wins better through the first 39 games last year, but it has covered the spread eight fewer times this season despite both acquiring Kevin Durant and posting nearly identical metrics on both ends of the court.

The answer, my friends, lies in the point spread.

Last season, when the Warriors were busy smashing virtually every regular season record known to mankind en route to a 73-win campaign, the Dubs were favored in 78 of 82 contests with an average point spread of -10.2.

This year, Golden State has been favored in 39 of 39 matchups with an average point spread of -12.2.

That may not seem like a significant difference, but when you’re laying an additional two points in every game and your scoring differential rises only 1.0 points from +10.8 to +11.8, the bottom line for gambling backers is that they’re going to take a hit.

Case in point: Through 39 games this season, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread by 2.5 or fewer points six times. In fact, if you average those six point spread misses together, you get a Golden State club that has failed to cover the number in six games by an average of just 1.58 points per game.

And now you understand why that jump from an average point spread of -10.2 last season to -12.2 this season is so significant. If the Warriors were laying two fewer points per game this year like they were last year, the team would be 20-18-1 against the spread instead of 15-23-1 against the spread.

That’s not exactly the biggest of swings, but it is, in fact, the difference between turning a profit and finding yourself in the red.

But as long as the public continues to pound the Warriors minus the points each and every night, like it was on Thursday against the Detroit Pistons when 72 percent of all tickets written were in support of Golden State, the bookmakers will continue to offer an inflated line that will become increasingly more difficult to beat for those who enjoy supporting the highest scoring team in the Association.

Which leads us to Option B. And as scary as Option B is going to sound, it’s the only option at the moment that is turning a profit.

Yes, Option B is the realization and implementation of a strategy in which you bet against Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and the rest of the Golden State Warriors each and every night until the team’s average point spread begins to decrease.

Sure, fading the Dubs may sound crazy on the surface. But that’s only until you realize that doing so would have resulted in a six straight ATS victories entering Thursday night’s showdown with the Pistons and a record of 13-4 ATS over the franchise’s last 17 games.

Crazy like a fox.