What's gotten into the Bulls, and what does it mean?
For the first 23 games this season, the Chicago Bulls were performing as most expected: spectacularly poorly. They were 3-20, on track for the top spot in the 2018 draft lottery.
In the past eight days, they've nearly tripled their win total, reeling off five straight victories over quality opponents - including three current playoff teams - with a combined record of 78-64. Their defense has been the best in the NBA, while their previously abysmal offense has been above average.
The Bulls had lost 10 straight games before embarking on what's now their longest winning streak in almost two years. So, what's gotten into this team? Is this just a random blip on the 82-game radar, or does it actually mean something? And does it provide Chicago with any additional hope for what previously looked to be a bleak short-term future? Let's dive in.
The band's better with Niko
Correlation does not imply causation, but there's no getting around the fact the Bulls' winning streak has coincided exactly with Nikola Mirotic's return to the lineup. The fourth-year power forward has injected a dose of creativity and lineup flexibility the Bulls had sorely lacked, and they've yet to lose a game he's played in. He's shooting the lights out, moving well at both ends, and, in one of this season's most remarkable developments, forging a terrific frontcourt partnership with Bobby Portis.
After what happened between them in October, when a punch from Portis put Mirotic in the hospital with a concussion and facial fractures, it seemed unlikely the two would ever play together again. Portis was suspended by the team for eight games, but Mirotic missed almost two months with his injuries. As he recovered, Mirotic avoided the Bulls practice facility while Portis was there, and reportedly handed the front office an ultimatum to ensure one of them would be traded before he was ready to return.
No trade ever materialized, but the two have seemingly pushed past the incident - though they still aren't speaking off the court - and they're now producing one of the league's best two-man net ratings. In their 54 shared minutes, the Bulls have waxed opponents by 34.3 points per 100 possessions. Chicago's guards and wings don't exactly light it up from deep, but Portis' vastly improved 3-point stroke and pick-and-pop game have allowed the team to invert the floor when he and Mirotic play together.
The two free each other up with pin-downs, high-low feeds, and screen-the-screener actions. Defensively, they can both hang in the post and switch seamlessly across multiple positions (especially Portis, who has crazy-fast feet for a guy his size), and even without a traditional center, lineups featuring the two have owned the defensive glass. They smothered the Kyrie Irving-less Boston Celtics on Monday.
Part of the reason it would've made sense to trade one of them - regardless of their conflict - is they play the same position, so knowing both can thrive in the same lineups is encouraging. Rookie power forward Lauri Markkanen has missed the last three games with back spasms, and it's going to be tough to bump Mirotic from the starting lineup when he returns.
Dunn, Dunn, Dunn!
When it comes to revisionist trade history, the Indiana Pacers have gotten most of the hindsight-induced shine this season, but the Bulls' widely panned return for Jimmy Butler has quietly started to look pretty decent.
Markkanen has already shown plenty of promise, and the Bulls have unearthed something in second-year point guard Kris Dunn - a speedy, athletic, tentacle-armed defender who's shooting the ball better than anyone could've anticipated. He's already hit nearly as many threes this season as he did his entire rookie year in Minnesota. He's improved his mid-range pull-up game and is finishing better from in close. Equally important, he's become a far more patient ball-handler, keeping his dribble alive and waiting for space to open up or bigs to complete their rolls. He's slashed his turnover rate while his assist rate has soared.
Dunn has also learned how to use his length to his advantage at the defensive end. He still fouls too much, but his incredible hands and ability to contain dribble penetration have made a huge impact on defense. He has a knack for navigating screens and manages to stay in a play even after appearing to get wiped out by a pick. He delights in poking the ball free or altering a shot from behind, ranking second in the NBA in steals per 100 possessions.
It's impossible to overstate how much more comfortable and confident Dunn looks in his second season, and the Bulls may have found their point guard of the future with him.
Is any of this sustainable?
Obviously, the Bulls aren't going to keep playing at this level, but it's worth wondering whether any of what they've been doing is real.
At the defensive end, there are red flags all over the place, with the biggest being that their opponent shot profile has actually been worse over the past five games. The Bulls have allowed more 3-point attempts and fewer mid-range jumpers than before, but opponents have bailed them out by shooting 28.8 percent from deep. That includes 32.1 percent on threes deemed "wide open," which Chicago is surrendering more than they were in their first 23 games. Opponents have also shot only 29.6 percent from mid-range, which we can safely assume will regress.
It's a bit troubling, too, that their own shot profile hasn't really changed for the better during this stretch. The Bulls have attempted about eight fewer threes per game, and no team has taken fewer corner threes over the past five games. They've replaced a couple of those threes with shots at the rim, but most of them with mid-rangers. Their saving grace has been a newfound affinity for the charity stripe - they ranked dead last in free-throw attempt rate before the win streak, but rank fifth during it - and there's no guarantee that will hold.
But with Mirotic back in the mix, it's not crazy to think they can maintain at least some semblance of their offensive improvement. The mid-range numbers are unsustainable, but their 3-point shooting has been pretty much in line with what they've done all season. Plus, they started to play better even before the wins were coming (they probably should've beaten both the Pacers and Nuggets the week prior), and their offense ranks 14th in the league over their last 10 games. For the season, the Bulls rank ninth in passes per game, fifth in potential assists, second-last in percentage of possessions finished via isolation, and 16th in 3-point attempt rate. Their process has mostly been sound, and the offensive uptick was arguably a long time coming.
What does it all mean?
You're never going to find too many meaningful takeaways from a five-game sample, but the good vibes surrounding the Bulls right now can't hurt. They've been playing with energy, zipping the ball around, and cutting with purpose in Fred Hoiberg's motion offense. They've discovered a feisty defensive streak, fighting through screens, communicating effectively, and giving maximum effort in transition. That stuff matters, not least for Hoiberg's job security. He has the Bulls playing hard and playing together.
He's also nurturing a cadre of potentially solid role players. Jerian Grant has shown promise, particularly as a scorer out of the pick-and-roll. His 1.06 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ballhandler rank third in the NBA among players with at least 50 such possessions, behind only LeBron James and Steph Curry. David Nwaba - an undrafted waiver claim on a non-guaranteed contract - has been a revelation as an energizer who always moves at top speed and crashes the glass like a lunatic. The Bulls' net rating with Nwaba on the floor would rank fourth in the NBA. And Justin Holiday is a solid wing defender who can be a rotation player for a good team if he develops his touch around the hoop.
If Zach LaVine picks up where he left off last season when he comes back, Markkanen makes good on the potential he's flashed, and the Bulls can nab another blue-chipper in the draft, they may have something resembling a young core to build around. But if the Bulls keep playing this way, they may cost themselves a chance at said blue-chipper. There's a philosophical dilemma at the heart of this mini-surge, one faced by every team that experiences some measure of success during an earnest rebuild. Winning breeds good habits, but it's hard to measure the benefit against the cost of blunted lottery odds.
For now, the Bulls are pretty damn fun, which, for a team that's been varying degrees of miserable the past few seasons, is nothing to sneeze at. Between the bad optics of the Butler trade, the indefensible sale of Jordan Bell to the Warriors, and the Portis-Mirotic incident, the season couldn't have started off in more embarrassing fashion for the franchise. Whether or not this run is predictive of anything other than a worse draft pick come June, it felt like the Bulls needed this; they needed some hope, needed something to feel good about. No matter where they ends up when the season's over, the Bulls have spent at least one week of it kicking serious tail. Good for them.