Who threatens Warriors most if Curry isn't back for Round 1?
Steph Curry's Grade 2 MCL sprain and initial three-week recovery timeline leaves open a wide range of possible outcomes for the Golden State Warriors and, by extension, the Western Conference playoffs.
Assuming their other three All-Stars return at full strength, the Warriors are arguably still NBA title favorites, even without Curry. But their sheen of invincibility certainly dims some when you remove the two-time MVP from the equation. This season has reinforced the fact that Curry takes the Warriors from run-of-the-mill great team to juggernaut of historic proportions. They are 41-10 when he suits up, and just 13-8 when he doesn't (though a handful of those missed games have also come without one or more of Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green). With Curry on the floor this season, Golden State's offensive rating is an obscene 120.4; without him, it's a pedestrian 106.2, which would rank just 16th in the NBA.
There are also intangible factors to consider. Belief can be a powerful elixir, and Curry's absence would be enough to make any number of talented, lower-seeded West playoff teams believe they can topple the defending champs. If the initial recovery period is accurate, it would see him return just in time for the start of the playoffs. Should his re-evaluation offer some unpleasant news, he could feasibly miss the entire first round. If so, would that leave the Warriors vulnerable? And if so, to whom?
Golden State is effectively locked into the No. 2 seed, with eight teams - the Trail Blazers, Thunder, Pelicans, Spurs, Timberwolves, Jazz, Nuggets, and Clippers - sitting within three games of No. 7. We polled our NBA editors to determine which of those teams would be most threatening to a Curry-less Warriors squad in Round 1. (To account for the monumental swing factor that is Kawhi Leonard's health, two versions of the Spurs were considered.)
1. Thunder
The Thunder would be a nightmare matchup. Without Curry, the Warriors' premier scoring threats are limited to Durant and Thompson, who may not even be at full health, and the Thunder would have plans in place to keep them quiet.
You'd likely see Paul George consistently shadow Durant, while Russell Westbrook could cheat off Golden State's starting point guard (Quinn Cook? Shaun Livingston?) in order to be more of a disruptive free safety. The Warriors would still hold an edge in terms of the bench, but with rotations tending to shrink in the postseason, a top-heavy Thunder side could pose a massive problem for the shorthanded Warriors.
- Jonathan Soveta
2. Spurs, with Kawhi
Getting a fully healthy Leonard back in time for the playoffs would be as great a talent and confidence boost as any potential Warriors opponent could receive, and the effect it would have on Leonard's teammates can't be understated.
An efficient scorer and 38.6 percent shooter from outside, Leonard would immediately provide the Spurs with better spacing (San Antonio currently sits 24th in 3-point percentage) and playmaking, to say nothing of his elite perimeter defense. His return would likely also bump Kyle Anderson to the bench, where he could be deployed as a solid defensive option and an offensive point forward when the Warriors run with their reserves. If Golden State tries to go small (a less dangerous proposition without Curry), the Spurs can counter with switchy lineups featuring Leonard, Anderson, and Danny Green, with LaMarcus Aldridge at the five. - Soveta
3. Trail Blazers
It would take a pretty disastrous finish for the third-place Blazers to slide to No. 7, but their closing schedule is no cakewalk. The Warriors probably wouldn't be thrilled to see them there. The Blazers have already beaten them twice this season - once when the Warriors were fully healthy, and once when Curry sat out - and the game Curry missed was a 17-point rout.
The Warriors have long struggled to contain the Blazers' explosive guards, and have been mauled on the glass by the Blazers' big, physical front line. Curry helps them fight fire with fire; he can make Damian Lillard expend a ton of energy at the defensive end, and he can make Jusuf Nurkic's life hell by attacking him repeatedly in the pick-and-roll. Nurkic and Ed Davis are fearsome defenders when they're able to drop back and play close to the basket, and without the threat of Curry's pullup shooting and at-rim finishing forcing them to choose between multiple options, the Warriors could find it difficult to puncture Portland's stout interior defense. There is no real answer to Durant, but Al-Farouq Aminu is as good an option as any.
The Blazers would likely have their own issues scoring when the Warriors load up on Lillard and CJ McCollum and dare role players like Aminu, Mo Harkless, and Evan Turner to beat them. But take Curry out of the mix, and the matchup starts to look pretty decent. - Joe Wolfond
4. Timberwolves
The Wolves have been a bit of a mess this season, but in Karl-Anthony Towns, they have one of the few players in the West that Golden State just straight-up doesn't have an answer for. Green doesn't have the size to stop him, and none of the Warriors' traditional bigs have the speed.
Throw in a healthy Jimmy Butler (assuming that's what the Wolves will be getting) and the Warriors' small-ball lineups would have their hands full with a team that stretches defenses to their breaking points by pounding the ball inside and relentlessly attacking the basket.
The issue, of course, is that Minnesota still can't really stop anybody, and even without Curry there to blow them to bits at the point of attack, the Warriors are uniquely equipped to capitalize on the Wolves' chronic inattentiveness thanks to their plethora of passing, cutting, and spot-up shooting ability. - Wolfond
5. Jazz
Utah will approach the playoffs with more continuity, more momentum, and more confidence than just about any other team, thanks to the wicked 21-2 run that flipped the fortunes of what looked like a lost season.
The Jazz will present problems beyond their airtight defense centered around Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert. They are backed by a hostile fan base that already has a bone to pick with the Warriors over their potshots about Salt Lake City's lack of nightlife. Utah also boasts a handful of disciplined and gritty 3-and-D wing players who can make life miserable for Durant and Thompson.
Having said that, the Jazz just can't generate easy baskets. They rank 22nd in offensive rating since the All-Star break, their go-to scorer is a rookie, and a disproportionate share of their offense comes down to contested jumpers at the end of deliberate half-court possessions. - William Lou
6. Pelicans
The problem posed by the Pelicans begins and ends with the unstoppable Anthony Davis.
In his third season, Davis led a shorthanded Pelicans team against the eventual champion Warriors, and he was arguably the best player in the series despite New Orleans being swept. Davis was too big for Green to handle, and he cruised to averages of 31.5 points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks on 54 percent shooting. Davis has only improved since then, adding more range and a tighter handle to his arsenal, while Green has taken a step back on defense.
The problem with the Pelicans is that they have nothing else that would even remotely frighten the Warriors. Nikola Mirotic and Jrue Holiday are notoriously streaky, Rajon Rondo would be given the Tony Allen treatment as his man doubled Davis, and New Orleans would have no natural defender for Durant. - Lou
7. Spurs, without Kawhi
Leonard has only played in nine games this season, and this Spurs roster - led by a resurgent Aldridge - has had to survive the insane Western Conference firefight without him. There is no counting out a team coached by Gregg Popovich, but could a Kawhi-less Spurs beat a Steph-less Warriors?
Curry provides arguably the most dominant skill in basketball with his range and willingness to fire away from deep. If that is taken out of the equation and if the Spurs could both key in on Durant and make sure Thompson doesn't get hot, they are balanced and well-coached enough to make it a fight. But without Leonard, San Antonio's evident lack of offensive firepower would likely be its demise. - Wael Saghir
8. Nuggets
The Nuggets are currently out of the playoff picture, and have struggled to find a consistent role for veteran forward Paul Millsap. They lack a playmaking guard and rely heavily on center Nikola Jokic to create for everybody else. The good news for Denver is that it could cause matchup problems if Curry isn't around.
Jokic forcing the Warriors' centers away from the rim would widen an already gaping hole in the middle of Golden State's defense. The emergence of Gary Harris and Jamal Murray has given Denver a combination of steady shooting and explosive scoring, and with Harris focusing on keeping track of Thompson, the Nuggets could win the guard battle.
The issue would be trying to shut down Durant. There is nobody on the Nuggets' roster that can remotely stop the Warriors superstar. Forcing the issue with Millsap or Wilson Chandler won't be enough to slow him down. The Nuggets' defense as a whole is awful, and this could be the fast-paced shootout the Warriors are hoping for in the first round. - Saghir
9. Clippers
We don't need to spend too much time on this one. On top of the fact that the Clippers are a serious long shot to climb three games to seventh place, they just don't present any matchup problems for even an undermanned Golden State team.
If Lou Williams can order a 50-piece McNuggets on them four times in seven games, they might have a chance. Otherwise, they don't have nearly enough weaponry to dent the Warriors' armor.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)