How do Kyrie-less Celtics match up with potential 1st-round foes?
You have to hand it to the basketball gods: the latest twist in the Boston Celtics' occasionally frustrating, but ultimately incredibly successful regular season is a doozy. Superstar point guard Kyrie Irving has been shut down until next season, meaning the Celtics - all but locked in to the second seed in the wide-open Eastern Conference - will be without the backbone of their offense heading into the postseason.
Can the beaten and bruised Celtics stave off a first-round defeat? Here's how Boston matches up against their likely first-round opponents, listed in order of teams' probabilities of landing the seventh seed, according to PlayoffStatus.com:
Washington Wizards - 38 percent
The Wizards took Boston to seven games in the second round last season - but that was a very different Celtics team. Remember when Isaiah Thomas and Kelly Olynyk combined for 55 points in Game 7?
The teams' most recent clash - March 14 in Boston - was a 125-124 double-overtime nail-biter - and Irving and All-Star Al Horford didn't play a single minute. Neither did John Wall, in the midst of an injury-plagued campaign of his own, but the fact an offense led by Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, and rookie Jayson Tatum still shot 48.5 percent against a veteran, playoff-tested team is still a major moral victory.
The Celtics' defensive nucleus - with Horford excelling against both traditional centers and stretch bigs, and Jaylen Brown and Tatum hounding shooters on the perimeter - has enough sandpaper to grind down the Wizards' 12th-ranked offense (107.1 points per 100 possessions). In fact, lineups featuring the Horford-Brown-Tatum trifecta has held opponents to just 100.6 points per 100 possessions (while scoring 108.6) in 1,030 minutes.
Even if Brown and Tatum are considerably greener than the average starting wings, they've spent enough time together to not get shook by a Wizards squad that has broadly failed to back up their early-season claim to be the "best team" in the East. If Wall is still a step slower than his usual game-changing speed, expect the Celtics to beat up on Beal, challenging Otto Porter Jr., Kelly Oubre Jr., and Marcin Gortat to beat them.
The teams will face each other once more this season - April 10 at Washington - but don't expect either to tip their hand ahead of a potential playoff rematch.
Milwaukee Bucks - 33 percent
The Celtics went 2-2 against the Bucks this year with an aggregate scoring margin of just six points. Despite the close season series, Boston couldn't stymie Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averaged 33.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and five assists over the four games.
The scary part? The Greek Freak was only averaging 38.5 minutes over those four outings. What happens if Bucks coach Joe Prunty decides to just roll Antetokounmpo out for 45 minutes a night in the rest day-heavy first round?
Compounding the issue, the Celtics will be woefully short on traditional ball-handlers without Irving and Marcus Smart - creating the sort of position deficiency which feeds right into the long-limbed Bucks' penchant for turning deflected passes into bone-crushing transition attack. The Bucks score 1.12 points per possession on transition attempts (10th in the league), and score on 52 percent of all transition attempts (fifth). The Celtics cannot afford to be sloppy with the ball, because no matter how athletic Brown, Tatum, and Co. are, they aren't winning a footrace with an Antetokunmpo-Eric Bledsoe two-man break.
Even if the Celtics take care of the ball and slow the game down into a halfcourt battle, Horford is going to have to put in a Herculean performance in containing Antetokounmpo. Horford has only cracked the 40-minute mark twice since joining the team two years ago, but if the Celtics don't keep him glued to the Greek Freak's hip, they're liable to succumb to his remarkable athleticism around the hoop.
Miami Heat - 28 percent
The Heat have the lowest probability of facing the Celtics in the first round, but they probably wouldn't mind taking on the presumptive No. 2 seed. Bench boss Erik Spoelstra can go toe-to-toe with Stevens in terms of strategical acumen, but unlike his Boston counterpart, he will have a healthier and much more experienced rotation at his disposal.
Of the Celtics' three likely opponents, the Heat defense is by far the best, tied for 5th in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 103.6 points per 100 possessions. Since the All-Star break, lineups featuring the four-man combination of Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson, and James Johnson have an offensive efficiency of 109.8, while holding opponents to just 97.6.
In the same span, the Heat have outscored opponents by 15.4 points per 100 possessions with former Celtics big Olynyk on the floor; he's averaged 13.3 points, six rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.1 steals. Combine Olynyk with the aforementioned foursome? The Heat are incinerating opponents by 41.3 points per 100 possessions in 47 minutes since the break.
Unlike the Wizards and Bucks, the Heat don't have one or two clear-cut offensive superstars for Stevens' defense to focus on stopping - which means no one on the Celtics can afford to take a defensive possession off. Spoelstra has approximately 400 different lineups equally adept at cutting the Celtics' jugular if Boston is anything less than perfect on either end of the floor.