The regular season is finally over, which means the lottery odds are set and the remaining first-round draft picks are locked into place.
For the Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies, it's time to celebrate knowing a top-five selection is on the way in one of the deepest draft classes in over a decade. In contrast, the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers will be absent from the playoffs and next month's draft lottery, with nothing to look forward but June's draft.
Here's a look at the odds for the May 15 NBA Draft Lottery, as well as traded first-round picks that have and have not changed hands.
Draft lottery positions
| Team | Record | Combination | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suns | 21-61 | 250 | 25% |
| Grizzlies | 22-60 | 199 | 19% |
| Hawks | 24-58 | Min. 137 | 13.7%* |
| Mavericks | 24-58 | Min. 137 | 13.7%* |
| Magic | 25-57 | 88 | 8.8% |
| Kings | 27-55 | 53 | 5.3%* |
| Bulls | 27-55 | 53 | 5.3%* |
| Nets (for Cavaliers) | 28-54 | 28 | 2.8% |
| Knicks | 29-53 | 17 | 1.7% |
| Lakers (for 76ers/Celtics) | 35-47 | 11 | 1.1% |
| Hornets | 36-46 | 8 | 0.8% |
| Pistons (for Clippers) | 39-43 | 7 | 0.7% |
| Clippers | 42-40 | 6 | 0.6% |
| Nuggets | 46-36 | 5 | 0.5% |
*Teams with the same record will carry the average of the two spots they occupy.
The Hawks and Mavericks occupy the third and fourth spots, averaging the ping-pong ball combinations of 156 and 119, which equals 137.5. Since the determining combination must be an integer, a coin flip will determine which team receives 138 and the higher spot, leaving the other with 137.
The Kings and Bulls occupy the sixth and seventh spot, averaging the ping-pong ball combinations of 63 and 43, which equals 53. No tiebreak would be necessary.
First-round picks changing
- Cleveland Cavaliers receive Nets' pick (unprotected).
- Philadelphia 76ers receive Lakers' pick if 1 and 6-30.
- Boston Celtics receive Lakers' pick if 2-5.
- LA Clippers receive Detroit Pistons' pick (top-four protected).
- Suns receive Miami Heat's pick (was top-seven protected). Suns may receive Milwaukee Bucks' pick depending on a tiebreaker.
- Chicago Bulls receive New Orleans Pelicans' pick (was top-five protected).
- Minnesota Timberwolves receive Oklahoma City Thunder's pick (was lottery protected).
- Lakers receive Cavaliers' pick (was top-three protected).
- Nets receive Toronto Raptors' pick (was lottery protected).
- Atlanta Hawks receive Houston Rockets' pick (was top-three protected).
*The Bucks and Heat have the same record. A tiebreaker will determine which spot the teams will have in the draft. If Miami wins the tiebreaker, the Bucks will keep their pick and select 17th overall. If the Bucks win the tiebreaker, the 16th overall pick (protected outside of 11-16) will go to the Suns.
