4 offseason developments with the greatest fantasy impact
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The NBA's landscape has changed dramatically this summer. With the fantasy basketball season right around the corner, let's take a look at which players have seen their value rise and fall after the offseason's biggest developments.
LeBron takes his talents to L.A.
In LeBron James, the Los Angeles Lakers now have a clear alpha dog for an offense that lacked a hierarchy at times last season. That could hamper Kyle Kuzma's and Brandon Ingram's fantasy production, who were the Lakers' leading scorers last season at 16.1 points per game apiece. There simply won't be as many shots to go around for the team's young guns - not to mention the possibility that veterans like Lance Stephenson and Michael Beasley will steal minutes. Don't reach on Kuzma or Ingram in your fantasy draft; target them in the 70-85 range.
Sophomore point guard Lonzo Ball could also have his fantasy production dampened by an incoming veteran. Rajon Rondo, his similarly skilled position mate, has already been named the season-opening starter at point guard while Ball recovers from injury. Throughout his prime, James' teams have often emphasized present-day ability and experience over future potential.
The Cleveland Cavaliers' outlook is clearer. Kevin Love's role on offense should increase dramatically, even if his peak production with the Minnesota Timberwolves (he averaged 23.5 points, 13.7 rebounds, and three assists per game from 2010-14) may no longer be realistic. Look to draft Love in the 30-40 range. Rodney Hood, George Hill, and even rookie Collin Sexton have an opportunity to emerge as top-100 fantasy contributors as well; someone other than Love is going to have to produce for the Cavs this season.
The Kawhi-DeMar blockbuster
The Toronto Raptors and San Antonio Spurs swapped a high-usage wing in DeMar DeRozan for a high-usage wing in Kawhi Leonard.
If Leonard is healthy, there's no reason to think he can't approximate the fantasy production owners came to expect from him between 2015-17: 23.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game with elite shooting percentages. He's currently ranked No. 10 overall on theScore's Top 150 fantasy draft rankings.
DeRozan's fit with the Spurs is shakier. It's not an exaggeration to say that his style of play isn't unlike that of new teammate LaMarcus Aldridge, a mid-range specialist used to being the focal point on offense. Those overlapping skills could create friction that could dampen both of their fantasy outlooks. They're still worthy of relatively high draft picks (DeRozan is ranked No. 34 and Aldridge is No. 38 on the Top 150 board), but their overall individual fantasy values are trending in the wrong direction.
Celtics get healthy
The Boston Celtics' blue-chip youngsters - specifically Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, and Marcus Smart - are a year older and each coming off successful individual seasons. However, Boston's headed towards a major logjam with Kyrie Irving, who missed 22 games in the regular season, and Gordon Hayward, who missed all but five minutes after his devastating ankle injury, returning. If both former All-Stars are healthy, there'll be fewer minutes and shots to go around.
Tatum, in particular, is a player whose fantasy impact could plateau. Those banking on a dramatic improvement in his fantasy production might be disappointed by Tatum's output, even as other subtle aspects of his game are honed. That applies to Brown as well, who's somehow avoided a similar hype train in fantasy circles.
But it's ultimately Rozier's fantasy value that's taken the biggest hit as the team's health has improved. After averaging 16.5 points and 5.7 assists per game in the playoffs with Irving absent, he can't possibly have the same ball-dominant role. He should be avoided in all but the deepest fantasy drafts.
Melo ousted by OKC, joins Rockets
Even though Carmelo Anthony is a year older and coming off the weakest fantasy season of his career, his new role as the Houston Rockets' sixth man could stabilize his waning fantasy outlook.
In a reserve capacity, Anthony will have more freedom as the focal point of Houston's bench-unit offense, a luxury he didn't always have starting alongside Russell Westbrook and Paul George last season. When Anthony does play alongside the Rockets' alpha-dog playmakers - James Harden and Chris Paul - he should have plenty of opportunities to hoist 3-point looks in Mike D'Antoni's high-scoring offense. Last year's averages - 16.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.2 made 3-pointers per game - are easily attainable for Anthony.
In Oklahoma City, Anthony's 15 shots per game will be largely re-distributed to newcomer Dennis Schroder. It wouldn't be a surprise if Steven Adams (9.4 field goal attempts per game last season) saw his output increase slightly as well. Both are solid depth options in fantasy; target them in the 60-80 range.