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Bettors oftentimes fall into the trap of making knee-jerk reactions based on one-game samples. Honestly, can you blame them?
Not every team stat or player line will be useful in terms of predictive metrics, but there were a handful of interesting angles that unfolded during the opening week of the new NBA season. Here are some that should apply going forward, as well as some tips for this weekend's slate of games.
Friday
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5, 216)
Opening night was extremely anticlimactic for the Lakers, who were outplayed in a 112-102 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. The biggest takeaway? The Lakers played at the slowest pace of any team in the league. LeBron James-led teams rarely go fast, but a spotty defense and methodical approach at the other end isn't exactly the recipe for success. Also, the game plan for Anthony Davis was particularly strange. He registered 25 points, sure, but he was mainly used in post-ups (career 0.95 points per possession) and only once in a pick-and-roll situation (1.11 points per possession). Head coach Frank Vogel has to get that straightened out sooner rather than later.
Chicago Bulls (-2, 222) at Memphis Grizzlies
The Bulls allowed the Charlotte Hornets to convert a franchise-record 23 threes on Wednesday. Of course, not all of Chicago's opponents will shoot better than 52% from beyond the arc, but don't be so quick to suggest Charlotte was lucky. Of the Hornets' 44 attempted 3-pointers, the nearest defender was at least four-plus feet away on a ridiculous 39 of them. And shooters had roughly six-plus feet of space on around half of those shots. Guarding the perimeter might be an issue for the Bulls this season, and after allowing 128 points to the lowly Hornets, they face a Grizzlies team that played at a frenetic pace in the opener. Overs involving the Bulls figure to be popular yet again this season.
Saturday
Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz
There's no line on this one considering both teams play Friday night, but this is an angle that favors Utah with both teams on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Kings are just 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 with zero days' rest, while the Jazz are 5-1. Also, altitude figures to play a factor in this one, particularly in the second half.
Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio kept things closer than it probably would have liked against the New York Knicks in the opener, failing to cover as a 10.5-point favorite in the 120-111 win. Saturday's game against the Wizards is another tune-up, and one that the home team should dominate. The Spurs will have two full days of rest while the Wizards play the second game of a back-to-back. Washington has had a tough time as a visitor against San Antonio, going just 3-15-1 ATS in its last 19.
Sunday
Golden State Warriors (-4) at Oklahoma City Thunder
So, the Clippers are going to win the title, the Lakers are dead, and the Hornets are going to set a record for most 3-pointers made in a season, right? There are plenty of stances we can take after one or two games, but here's one I guarantee will stick moving forward: Warriors overs will be in play on almost a nightly basis. And it has nothing to do with the offense.
The Clippers didn't luck their way to 141 points Thursday night. A Dubs defense that lost both Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala - and has Klay Thompson on the sidelines for perhaps the entire season with an injury - simply had no answer. The Warriors posted a horrific overall defensive rating, allowing the Clippers to shoot 62.5% from the floor and 56.2% from three. These defensive shortcomings are going to force Golden State to outshoot its opponent in virtually every game this season. Overs, please.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.
