Why the Raptors are among the NBA's best values to win it all

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Let's play a little game I like to call, "Who would you bet?" Compare the blind resumes for these two NBA teams:

Team A has the NBA's fourth-best record (38-16) through 54 games. It ranks sixth in net rating (4.8), seventh in offensive rating (112.2), and ninth in defensive rating (107.4). The roster features two All-Stars. This team has 8-1 odds to claim the NBA title and 2-1 odds to win its conference.

Team B has the NBA's third-best record (40-14) through 54 games. It ranks fourth in net rating (6.6), 11th in offensive rating (111.7), and second in defensive rating (105.1). The roster features two All-Stars. This team has 25-1 odds to claim the NBA title and 10-1 odds to win its conference.

As you might have guessed, Team A is last year's Toronto Raptors, who went on to win the NBA title. Team B? That's this season's Raptors, who've won a franchise-record 15 straight games and own the East's No. 2 seed.

Prior to this campaign, only 29 teams in NBA history had won more than 15 consecutive regular-season games. Fourteen of those 29 went on to win the NBA title. So why is this red-hot Toronto squad such a long shot to repeat?

The Raptors have been beating teams by 10.6 points per game during their record-setting winning streak and have been, at worst, a top-five team over the course of the season. And despite most of its rivals standing pat at the trade deadline, Toronto sits tied for the eighth-shortest odds to win it all:

Despite losing Kawhi Leonard this summer, Toronto has produced favorable numbers in comparison to last year's group thanks to sizable gains across the roster. But the team appears to be weighed down by preseason expectations, as oddsmakers dealt as high as 50-1 odds on a Raptors repeat.

Amid their extended winning streak, is there still value on the defending champions to win it all?

A title defense

Last year's team was carried to the Finals on the back of its defense, which finished the regular season allowing 106.8 points per 100 possessions (fifth-best in the NBA). That was never more clear than in the Eastern Conference finals, when the Raptors shut down reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in a 4-2 series win over the favored Milwaukee Bucks.

While Leonard's individual defense proved pivotal in that matchup, the Raptors' collective help defense was stellar, and it fueled their eventual title run. This year's defense may be even more amorphous, and its individual pieces are proving their might without Leonard.

Marc Gasol - who was key to clogging the lane in that Bucks series - ranks 10th in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus (+3.21) this season and has the sixth-highest defensive net rating (100.3) of any starter with at least 35 games played. Gasol is one of three Raptors - alongside Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry - ranked inside the top 10 in defensive win shares, more than any team besides Milwaukee.

Toronto is averaging the second-fewest points allowed in the paint (41.9), which is well below last year's mark (47.5), and the fewest shot attempts inside 10 feet (34.6). It also ranks first in defensive loose balls recovered (4.6) as well as second in deflections (17.3) and contested 3-pointers (28.2).

In layman's terms: The Raptors fly around on defense with their length and athleticism, clogging passing and driving lanes while throwing multiple bodies at opposing players. When opponents break through their sea of arms, Gasol is there to clean up the mess. It's a recipe that sounds an awful lot like the one Toronto followed last season.

It's also the best way to stop Antetokounmpo, whose Bucks remain the team to beat in the East. In last year's playoff matchup, head coach Nick Nurse flirted with some funky zone-like defenses, which have become a bugaboo for Milwaukee's offense. The Raptors are again turning to zone defense more than most teams this season and boast a stellar 87.6 defensive rating on those possessions, according to FiveThirtyEight's Chris Herring.

Replacing the Klaw

The Raptors have found ways to replace Leonard's Hall-of-Fame-level defense, but what about on offense? After all, the reigning Finals MVP led the team with 26.6 points per game during the regular season and 30.5 points in the playoffs.

Without him, Toronto's offense is scoring just 0.5 points fewer per 100 possessions this year. Much like a college team that loses its star player to the pros, the Raptors' young players have all elevated their play as they assume larger offensive roles.

Siakam, the league's most improved player in 2019, has seen his usage increase significantly (20.5% to 28.8%) but is almost exactly as efficient on a per-possession basis. Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Norman Powell, and Chris Boucher have all increased their offensive RAPTOR (Robust Algorithm using Player Tracking and On/Off Ratings - FiveThirtyEight's aptly named stat that measures on-court impact) by more than a full point per 100 possessions.

Perhaps the biggest surprise has been undrafted rookie Terence Davis, who ranks 19th in the NBA in offensive RPM (+3.17) and eighth in overall RPM (+4.15). During Toronto's 15-game winning streak, he's averaged 10.9 points on 53.9% shooting in nearly 20 minutes per contest. For a team that returned six of its eight rotation players from last year's playoff roster, an addition like Davis can really make a difference.

Toronto is also hunting for better shots, fueled in part by its active defense. The Raptors are averaging the third-most attempts inside 5 feet (35.4) and rank second in percentage of points off turnovers (18%), which is no surprise given how many loose balls they create.

With Leonard running the show, the Raptors tended to settle for tough shots - 40.8% of their attempts came between 20-24 feet, considered the least efficient range in basketball. This year's offense has lowered that number while upping its fast-break points and assist rate. In essence, the Raptors have replaced a superstar scorer with super-efficient scoring.

Is it sustainable?

Maybe we should have seen this season coming: Toronto went 17-5 last year without Leonard, outscoring teams by 11.8 points per game. This season, its average scoring margin (6.63) ranks fourth despite losing 185 man games to injury - more than all but four teams - which is as much a testament to Nurse's coaching as anything else.

To that effect, the Raptors' success this year sounds like it comes straight from a coaching clinic: Create easy scoring chances inside while denying your opponents those same opportunities. Grab every loose ball and "make the other team earn it." Simple enough, right?

That works against teams without the talent or coaching to overcome it, but against those good enough to "earn it," Toronto's reliance on easy buckets could cap its playoff ceiling.

The Raptors are 29-3 straight up this season against teams that sport sub-.500 records at that moment, averaging 117 points per game. Against teams above .500, they're just 10-11 and average 107 points. The good news for Toronto is that it's 19-7 on the road - often the mark of a good team - and 34-9 when Siakam plays, which equates to a 65-win pace.

Due to the Raptors' litany of injuries, it's difficult to assess their potential against playoff-caliber teams. Still, there's obvious value in their title odds. How often can you grab a long-shot price on a team with championship experience and top-three numbers through two-thirds of the season?

Milwaukee is probably Toronto's biggest threat, but the Raptors have already shown they're capable of shutting down Antetokounmpo in the postseason. Can they do it twice? At 25-1, it's worth taking your chances.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.