NBA weekly betting preview: Fade Pelicans amid hype

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We're back to highlight the top betting angles and plays on the NBA schedule. Here are some tips for this week's slate.

Note: Lines for Tuesday and beyond are released later in the week.

Monday

Utah Jazz (-8.5, 220.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers

This spread is nothing short of a gift for bettors - the Jazz haven't covered in five games and are 3-10-1 against the spread since Jan. 27, while the Cavaliers are 4-2 ATS since canning first-year coach John Beilein, which included outright wins against the Heat and 76ers.

This isn't just a betting fluke, either - the Cavaliers have posted a much better net rating (-2.5) than the Jazz (-8.8) have since the All-Star break despite facing similar competition. There might even be some value on an outright Cleveland win given the dysfunction in Utah.

Milwaukee Bucks (-3, 226) at Miami Heat

It might be time to be concerned about the Heat, who've gone 3-8 ATS in their last 11 with a negative point differential during that span. Miami is also 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning percentages above 66%.

That threshold would certainly include the league-leading Bucks, who've gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when Giannis Antetokounmpo is active. They should find success against a struggling Heat defense, which has contributed to Miami's six-game over streak.

Tuesday

Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings

Few teams have been more inconsistent this season than the Kings, but ride them while they're hot. Since the All-Star break, Sacramento's gone 5-1 ATS with a five-game under streak thanks to the NBA's fifth-best defense in that span. It'll take another stingy performance to cool off Wizards star Bradley Beal, whose recent scoring outburst has led to four overs in five games.

Wednesday

Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons

Two of the NBA's best (Thunder) and worst (Pistons) against the number have seen opposite trends of late: OKC has lost three straight ATS, while Detroit has covered four of six. This is the perfect spot to bet on those teams returning to form - the Pistons are the league's third-worst bet at home (11-20 ATS) and the Thunder are easily the best on the road (20-7-1 ATS).

New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks

If you only watched highlights online, you'd think the Pelicans had gone 15-0 in Zion Williamson's 15 starts this year. But New Orleans is actually 7-8 ATS in those contests, including a three-game ATS losing streak entering this week. The Mavericks are the fourth-best team by net rating since the All-Star break and should be comfortable favorites here.

Thursday

Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets

Two of the three best teams since All-Star Weekend will clash on Thursday, and their records against the league's other top sides could be predictive of the result. Despite the notion that the Clippers "get up" for big games, they've actually gone just 11-12 ATS against opponents with winning records, which includes a current 1-3 ATS run in that spot. The Rockets, meanwhile, have gone 16-9 ATS against opponents with winning records, the second-best mark of any team.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.