NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Can Zion catch Ja?
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The quiet rumblings about Zion Williamson's Rookie of the Year chances in late January have turned into boisterous proclamations as he continues to exceed even the most generous expectations. Williamson has put up historic numbers for a rookie and the New Orleans Pelicans are 8-7 since his season debut.
With each signature performance, the question arises: Can Zion actually win Rookie of the Year?
Here are the latest odds:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Ja Morant | -400 |
| Zion Williamson | +280 |
| Kendrick Nunn | +3500 |
| RJ Barrett | +5000 |
| Tyler Herro | +7000 |
Two months ago, the race seemed over, as Morant was as short as -1000 at some shops. Now, Williamson is coming off a career-high 35 points in Sunday's prime-time thriller against the Los Angeles Lakers and is surging up the oddsboard. Can he catch Morant and pull off the stunning comeback?
Zion making history
Williamson is scoring at a level we've never seen from a rookie. He's the first teenager in NBA history to record at least 20 points in 10 straight games, the first rookie since Michael Jordan to drop 25 points on at least 57% shooting in four straight games, and his 30.1 points per 36 minutes would eclipse Wilt Chamberlain's rookie record (29.2) set in 1959-60.
It's fine company, to say the least. It's also worthy of hardware, as no Rookie of the Year winner since David Robinson (1989-90) averaged more points than Williamson is, and none ever shot a better percentage.
Here are Williamson's per-game stats compared to the last 10 winners:
| Season | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Zion Williamson | 24.1 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 59.3 |
| 2018-19 | Luka Doncic | 21.2 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 0.582 |
| 2017-18 | Ben Simmons | 15.8 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 0.562 |
| 2016-17 | Malcolm Brogdon | 10.2 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 0.552 |
| 2015-16 | Karl-Anthony Towns | 18.3 | 10.5 | 2.0 | 0.549 |
| 2014-15 | Andrew Wiggins | 16.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.545 |
| 2013-14 | Michael Carter-Williams | 16.7 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 0.542 |
| 2012-13 | Damian Lillard | 19.0 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 0.531 |
| 2011-12 | Kyrie Irving | 18.5 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 0.527 |
| 2010-11 | Blake Griffin | 22.5 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 0.526 |
| 2009-10 | Tyreke Evans | 20.1 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 0.523 |
Not only is Zion outpacing former winners, but he's already among the best scorers in the league. He ranks eighth in the NBA in points per 36 minutes and first in true shooting percentage (63%) among players with at least a 30% usage rate. A Williamson post-up is arguably the best play in basketball right now.
Those stats are, of course, unprecedented, but so would be a Williamson ROY win with so few games under his belt.
The best ability is availability
Dating back to 1952-53, no player has won ROY while missing more than 32 contests. If Williamson plays every game for the rest of the season, he'll still have missed more (45) than he's played (37) and would potentially crush Patrick Ewing's record of only 50 games played by a ROY winner.
We saw a similar situation just three years ago when Joel Embiid dominated as a rookie with 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game. Yet he played in just 31 contests, opening the door for Malcolm Brogdon to post one the least inspiring ROY campaigns in recent memory.
Morant's per-game averages (17.7 points, 7.0 assists) far surpass Brogdon's output from his award-winning season, and they'd be good enough to secure the victory in most years, especially considering how he's energized a long-suffering Memphis Grizzlies team that's clinging to the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoff picture.
For their part, the Pelicans are three games back of the West's final spot, which could be the deciding factor in the ROY race. But even a playoff surge by New Orleans - which is looking more likely by the day - might not be enough to swing voters, who are notoriously conservative during awards season.
Fade Zion's odds
If you grabbed Williamson at long odds in January, you should give yourself a pat on the back for forecasting the rookie's meteoric rise. But it still likely won't be enough to foil those who bet Morant, who's started all but six games for Memphis.
Even if Williamson somehow improves upon his current averages, there's simply no precedent for a player winning any meaningful award with so few games under their belt. With roughly 20 contests to go, it's Morant's trophy to lose.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.