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NBA Thursday playoff best bets: Buy the Lakers' defense

6 years ago
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Thursday's NBA slate is going to be electric.

The Lakers dropped their opener to the Trail Blazers, the Bucks looked lost against the Magic, and the Heat and Pacers are playing for the fourth time in 10 days. What can we expect in Game 2?

Here are the best bets.

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-4.5, 215)

The Heat won and covered against the Pacers in Game 1, 113-101. Although the total fell one point shy of where it closed, I can't justify the number being this high for Game 2.

The Pacers shot 47% from the field, 42% from beyond the arc, and 86% from the free-throw line Tuesday. The Heat were even better from the floor, converting 49% of their attempts.

The real killer for over bettors? Tempo: the Heat and Pacers played at the second-slowest pace among Game 1 matchups.

These two have gone under the total in five of the last seven meetings. Unless they magically pick up the pace, they'll make it six of eight.

Pick: Under 215

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5, 229.5)

All the talk's been centered around the Lakers, whose offense sputtered in a 100-93 loss on Tuesday. The funny part about all of it? Portland wasn't much better, yet the win masked the team's play.

The Trail Blazers posted a meager 97.1 offensive rating and shot just 39% on 79 attempts from the floor. The Lakers' No. 3-rated defense from the regular season also forced 16 turnovers, but allowed 33 attempts from the charity stripe.

L.A.'s defense won't get much credit following the Game 1 loss, but they held a dynamic offense to just 100 points.

I'll bet on that unit again in Game 2.

Pick: Trail Blazers team total under 111.5

Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5, 227.5)

The Magic pulled off the biggest upset of Round 1 with a 122-107 win. Their defense has quietly been great against Milwaukee of late, holding the Bucks' offense to 43% shooting or worse in four of the last six contests. Milwaukee's team total under is also 5-1 during that stretch.

Meanwhile, Orlando shot an unconventional 49% from the floor against the league's top defense. The Bucks should turn in a much better effort Thursday and avoid going down 0-2.

Pick: Under 227.5

(Odds source: theScore Bet).

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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