NBA Wednesday playoff best bets: How legit are the Heat?
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The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks look to even up their series with the Miami Heat, while the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets meet for a pivotal Game 7.
Here are the best bets for Wednesday's two-game slate.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-5, 220.5)
The Heat came out firing in Game 1. The offense shot 39% from deep and converted 27 of 29 free throws, while the defense forced 19 turnovers. Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo never really got going, posting 18 points on just 6-of-12 shooting from the field.
Milwaukee just hasn't played like the same team that was head and shoulders above the rest of the East prior to the layoff. Not only were the Bucks average throughout the seeding games, they currently have the seventh-best net rating among playoff teams. That's not ideal.
Miami's a good challenge for Milwaukee. The Heat have plenty of star power - Jimmy Butler went off for 40 on Monday - and the shooting's been there all season. Defensively, they're tied with the Lakers for the fourth-best rating in the playoffs.
Buying low on the Bucks here in Game 2 will be a popular stance, but I disagree - five points on a neutral court is too steep against a team that can match up well.
The Heat have covered nine of the last 13 against Milwaukee, while the Bucks are 1-4 against the spread over last five versus teams with winning records.
Pick: Heat +5
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets (-5.5, 217.5)
Houston's deservedly been criticized for not putting Oklahoma City away. After all, the Rockets have been far and away the better team in the series.
Postseason net rating (active teams)
| Team | Net rating |
|---|---|
| Celtics | 11.4 |
| Raptors | 10.5 |
| Lakers | 10.4 |
| Clippers | 9.3 |
| Heat | 9.3 |
| Rockets | 7.7 |
| Bucks | 6.3 |
| Nuggets | -3.5 |
| Thunder | -7.7 |
Although it's taken longer than normal for the cream to rise to the top, expect the Rockets to be the better team on Wednesday. They've allowed 92 points per game over the last two against a Thunder offense that's registered a dreadful rating of 101.3 in the first round.
Pick: Rockets -5.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet).
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.