Who ya got? Previewing the Western Conference 2nd round
The conference semifinals are finally set. After previewing the Eastern Conference's second round earlier this week, theScore's NBA feature writers Joseph Casciaro and Joe Wolfond now predict the West semis.
No. 1 Lakers vs. No. 4 Rockets
Prediction
Casciaro: Lakers in 5
The Lakers have been better all year, they're deeper even in their current state, and they have the best player in this series by far in LeBron James. The added benefit of drawing the small-ball Rockets is that it might force the Lakers into utilizing their most optimized lineups, which include Anthony Davis playing center.
Whether it's because Davis is still hesitant to play the five or Frank Vogel doesn't want to move away from what's worked all year, the Lakers have continued to start (and mostly play) jumbo lineups with one of JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard alongside Davis in the frontcourt, despite the fact The Brow and the Lakers are at their best when Davis is the lone big.
Against a running, shooting Rockets team starting 6-foot-5 P.J. Tucker at center, the Lakers' biggest lineups no longer make sense. Davis' presence is already enough to ensure the Lakers will maintain the obvious size advantage most teams enjoy against Houston, except without giving up mobility on the defensive end.
Davis and James should dominate. While Tucker and Robert Covington (and maybe Jeff Green) might physically look like the kind of players who can give LeBron some trouble, the truth is that King James has rarely been bothered by either. James should feast and pick the Rockets apart while Davis dominates Houston down low.
On the other end, the Lakers can throw some combination of star-stopper Alex Caruso, Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and even the returning Rajon Rondo at James Harden and Russell Westbrook, with LeBron always an option if desperately needed.
It's rare for a team with two stars as good as Harden and Westbrook to enter a playoff series without at least one clear advantage, but I can't find one in this matchup for Houston.
Wolfond: Lakers in 7
While I ultimately think LeBron will be the best player in this series, I'm not quite on board with your suggestion that he and AD will just run roughshod over the Rockets.
I've been super impressed with Houston's defense in the bubble; it's been the best in the playoffs after ranking seventh during the seeding stage. Even Harden and Westbrook have had their share of inspired moments at that end of the floor. And while it was nice to see the Lakers finally break out of their offensive funk against the Blazers' anemic defense, I still have some concerns about their ability to score consistently in this matchup.
I agree that committing to playing Davis at center more often is a must. On top of the challenges the Rockets' spread offense can pose for traditional bigs, their defense is fast and help-heavy and handsy as all hell. Davis and James will need space to breathe, whether as pick-and-roll partners who can beat Houston's switches with quick slips to the rim or as post operators with cutting lanes open around them.
I actually think the Rockets should aim to be a bit less switchy in this matchup and avoid unnecessarily conceding mismatches to the Lakers' two stars. I expect them to start Tucker on James and Covington on Davis, and they should work harder than they usually do to stay in that alignment.
The Lakers' defense is probably better on balance, but it will also be subject to the whims of Houston's shooting variance. A lot will come down to which team's role players hit more threes, and at this point, I trust the Rockets' shooters a bit more. As long as their short rotation isn't totally burnt out from a taxing series against the Thunder, they should be able to put a real scare into the top seed.
Series X-factor
Casciaro: Anthony Davis
Simply put, if Davis dominates this matchup the way he should, the Rockets aren't taking more than a game off the Lakers. If Davis shies away from the moment, struggles to deal with extra defensive attention again, or if the Lakers play too big for too long, Houston has a chance to make things interesting.
Davis' reluctance to play center despite thriving at the five has long been one of the knocks on the All-Star big man, but with this specific matchup dictating the terms for him, he should get plenty of time as the lone big on the floor.
Wolfond: The Lakers' guard depth
We're on the same page about Davis' ideal role in this series. The challenge for the Lakers, though, will be finding the right guard/wing trio to slot around him and LeBron in those smaller lineups, especially in crunch time. Kyle Kuzma has probably earned a spot with his two-way play, especially because he's the rare Lakers role player with enough iso scoring chops to bust a switch. That leaves two nominal guard spots.
Because of the way the Rockets help, and because their best players are both guards, a lot is going to be asked of the Lakers' backcourt guys, especially defensively. Caruso's defense has been fantastic in the bubble (he should see plenty of time as the primary on Harden), and he's a great cutter and solid passer, but he can't shoot a lick. Danny Green is the best shooter of the bunch, but provides the least off-the-dribble ability (which is to say, virtually none) and hasn't actually shot the ball well in the bubble. Caldwell-Pope offers just enough of everything. Green and Caldwell-Pope are both capable of handling the Harden assignment in spurts, though I'm not sure either of them has the athleticism to corral Westbrook.
None of them are perfect options, but the Lakers will shuffle things around game-to-game based on who's playing well. All I know is Rondo is very much not the answer.
No. 2 Clippers vs. No. 3 Nuggets
Prediction
Wolfond: Clippers in 6
Ivica Zubac is one of the people I'll be watching most closely in this series. For whatever reason, Doc Rivers doesn't seem to trust him, and it took a ton of Montrezl Harrell rust for Rivers to finally give his best rim-protector serious burn in the first round against Dallas. In that series, the Clippers were 32.3 points per 100 possessions better with Zubac on the floor than with him on the bench. And here's the part really jumped out at me:
| Doncic per 100 possessions | Zubac on | Zubac off |
|---|---|---|
| Pts | 31.2 | 51.8 |
| eFG% | 50.0% | 62.5% |
| TOs | 7.9 | 5.0 |
| Net Rtg | -25.3 | +11.6 |
Jamal Murray isn't Luka Doncic, obviously, but if the first round was any indication, Murray is going to be a handful in the pick-and-roll. The Clippers might prefer to downsize and just switch those actions, but that would mean repeatedly leaving someone way out of his weight class against Nikola Jokic. And because of Jokic's passing ability, doubling him in the post basically means just conceding an open shot elsewhere.
Not only is Zubac the Clippers' best option to throw at Jokic and L.A.'s only chance of surviving in single coverage, he showed in the Mavs series that he can also be an effective deterrent against the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, walling off paths to the rim without fully abandoning the roll man. The Nuggets could respond by having Jokic pop, but the Clippers should probably be willing to live with that, as Utah did last round. I'd bet against Jokic, a 31.4% 3-point shooter during the regular season, continuing to hit 47.8% from deep.
If I believed Rivers would actually roll with Zubac for big minutes, I'd go Clippers in five. They should win comfortably regardless. The advantage Jokic gives Denver in the frontcourt can only do so much to mitigate L.A.'s advantage on the wing. The Clippers can shut off Murray's water by sticking one of Kawhi Leonard or Paul George on him. If he's healthy, Pat Beverley can make life difficult for Murray, too. And at the other end of the floor, even with Gary Harris back and defending his tail off, I have very little faith in the Nuggets' ability to slow down one of the league's best offenses after allowing 120.3 points per 100 to the Jazz.
Kawhi is going to absolutely dice them up. Harris is by far Denver's best perimeter defender, but he's too small to handle the primary Leonard assignment. Jokic is either going to get traffic-coned in the pick-and-roll or foul out trying to avoid that fate. Without even mentioning how gassed the Nuggets looked at the tail end of their seven-game barn burner against Utah, the top-end talent gap here is too great for them to overcome.
Casciaro: Clippers in 5
I'm with you. Zubac is an underrated big, and the people who underrate him most might be his own team's coaching staff.
We're also in agreement on the overall outlook of this series as a whole. The Clippers have the league's best collection of perimeter defenders and wing stoppers, and the Nuggets have no one with the combination of defensive ability and strength to trouble Leonard. No Jokic advantage could be big enough to overcome all that.
Series X-factor
Wolfond: Michael Porter Jr.
Porter's defense improved as the first round went along (though he set the bar ridiculously low) and the Nuggets did a better job keeping him out of compromising switches. He still lost his spot in the starting lineup and his minutes were scaled back considerably.
The Nuggets should keep bringing him off the bench, but in order to have any hope in this series, I think they're going to need Porter to play a big role. To keep up in the scoring column, they'll sorely need his shooting, cutting, and offensive rebounding. He's the one high-variance guy capable of meaningfully closing the talent gap.
The question is, can he stay on the floor? The Clippers will follow the Jazz's blueprint and try to make him unplayable by targeting him repeatedly in the pick-and-roll. Even if he can just be run-of-the-mill bad - rather than catastrophically, scheme-wreckingly awful - he'll give their chances a huge boost.
Casciaro: Paul George
Aside from Game 5 and parts of Game 1, George was mostly awful against the Mavericks, and Playoff P paid for it in the form of social media slander. The stakes will get a lot higher than that as the Clippers' postseason journey continues, and the team will need PG to play like the All-NBA caliber talent we know he is.
Maybe it doesn't matter against a team as overmatched as the Nuggets, but Dallas was supposed to be comically overmatched too, and George's no-show was one of the reasons that series unfolded as competitively as it did.
The Nuggets may not be able to stop Leonard, but if they load up on the reigning Finals MVP with some combination of Harris or Jerami Grant, and Paul Millsap's ready to help, Denver might be able to force Los Angeles' supporting cast to step up. If George merely plays up to his capabilities, it's all moot, and the Clippers will roll. If George's jumper continues to abandon him and the Nuggets can find a way to get the ball out of Leonard's hands, Denver has more than enough talent to hang around.