NBA MVP odds, best bets: Mitchell, Zion highlight top-5 value plays

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The NBA MVP market has been a bit of a bust in recent years. Giannis Antetokounmpo cashed on short odds in 2018-19 and repeated a year ago after opening as the favorite. This year, the Greek Freak is behind Luka Doncic, who's priced as the NBA's best player despite being a few years away from the crown, at best.

With a shortened season and some inevitable voter fatigue from Antetokounmpo's consecutive trophies, could this be the year for a long-shot value? Here are the odds to win this year's MVP (200-1 or shorter) and my favorite value bets.

Jayson Tatum (+2600)

Is this the year Tatum finally makes the leap? The former top-three pick saw a massive jump in usage last year but was even more efficient from the floor, posting 23.4 points per game with a 52.7% effective field-goal percentage as the Celtics' top option.

Tatum will need to improve those margins to have a shot at MVP, but he showed he can late in 2019-20 when he averaged 30.8 points in the 10 games before the hiatus. If he can carry the momentum from that run and a strong playoff performance, he'll be among the top options for this award.

Devin Booker (+3600)

This price has been even longer during the offseason, though it dropped after the Suns acquired All-Star running mate Chris Paul. Paul could finally help draw defenses away from the sixth-year star, who's averaged at least 26.6 points and 6.5 assists in each of the past two seasons.

I love the Suns' outlook this year, and I love the narrative of Booker leading them to their first playoff berth since 2009-10. He ranked 17th in win shares last season on a bad Phoenix team; the sky is the limit in 2020-21 with a better roster against less defensive pressure.

Jimmy Butler (+5500)

If you don't think Butler can reach an MVP level, just roll the tape from last year's postseason. He averaged 22.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, six assists, and two steals as he shouldered the load on both ends of the court amid an Eastern Conference title run.

Butler was already a top-10 player last year by win shares (9) and box plus/minus (5.4), and he'll again be the catalyst for the Heat, who are sneaky contenders to win it all in 2020-21. There's simply too much value here to ignore one of the league's emerging alpha dogs.

Donovan Mitchell (+8500)

Mitchell didn't take the expected leap in his third season after strong rookie and sophomore campaigns, though he still set new career highs in points (24), rebounds (4.4), and assists (4.3) while improving his shooting at all three levels. He was also the engine for a Jazz team that quietly set a 50-win pace in 2019-20.

This is the same player who was priced at 40-1 last year to win MVP, and he showed an extra gear in last year's playoffs. Mitchell is simply too good to be priced this long, and he's raw enough to show even more growth this season.

Zion Williamson (+8500)

Williamson's MVP odds flirted with 200-1 earlier this offseason before settling at this price. It still isn't nearly short enough. The Pelicans star would have ranked 12th in PER (24.1) had he qualified in 2019-20, and he became the first rookie since Michael Jordan to post 16 20-point games within his first 20 contests.

That all came despite a minutes restriction as he recovered from a torn meniscus. Can you imagine how good he could be this year? There are probably 30 players talented enough to win MVP in the right circumstances, and no more than 10 with enough upside to run away with the race in any given season. Williamson is in that latter category, and he's priced in the former. Take advantage.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.