NBA Christmas Day best bets: Fade Lakers, Clippers as favorites
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We're off to a real 2020-type start to the NBA season with a 1-5 record against the spread in our first six games. At least we can glean some insight from this week's on-court results heading into the five-game slate on Christmas Day.
Here's where we lean in each of Friday's games:
New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat (-4.5, 224.5), 12 p.m. ET
What happened to the Heat? They were among the biggest surprises on Wednesday, when they ceded control late to the Magic and lost as 5-point road favorites.
Miami's defense still held Orlando's lineup to 48% shooting and could have a similar impact against the Pelicans, who bullied the Raptors' frontcourt in a blowout win. New Orleans shot 82.4% from within five feet on Wednesday and finished with a 63.6 true shooting percentage, both second-best of any team through the first three days of the season.
Those inside buckets won't be there against Adebayo and Co., while the Heat's primary scorers are due for a better showing against a friendlier matchup. Take Miami here in an early buy-low opportunity.
Pick: Heat -4.5
Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks (-10, 233), 2:30 p.m.
Truthfully, I expected a stronger overreaction on this line based on what we saw from the Warriors on Opening Night, though the Bucks' surprising loss to the Celtics on Wednesday may have tempered expectations.
Don't let that distract you - oddsmakers expected Wednesday's game to be close, and the Bucks are still coming off back-to-back seasons of incredible regular-season efficiency. They're also 42-25-3 ATS as double-digit favorites over that span, while the entire league is hitting 56% in that spot.
The Warriors' offense still seems disjointed, at best, and their defense looks as bad as it was a year ago. Expect Giannis Antetokounmpo and friends to have a field day to kick off the holiday slate.
Pick: Bucks -10
Brooklyn Nets (-2.5, 230) at Boston Celtics, 5 p.m.
I know we've only seen two days of basketball, but I'm already willing to admit I may have been wrong about the Nets. They looked like a well-oiled machine just one game into the NBA season - especially Kevin Durant, who was electric in limited minutes on Tuesday.
Still, I'm not ready to lay points on the road against the Celtics, who had the NBA's second-best ATS record last year (59.3%) and made a statement with Wednesday's win over the Bucks. Jayson Tatum has already arrived as a superstar, and Jaylen Brown appears ready to join the fray after a career year in 2019-20.
The Nets' superstar duo has the higher ceiling in 2020, but I still trust the C's more in this early season heavyweight spot. I've been wrong before on Brooklyn, but I'm willing to take the points and find out.
Pick: Celtics +2.5
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (-6, 228), 8 p.m.
The Lakers entered the year as the better team, but neither are worthy of much praise after season-opening losses. The Mavericks couldn't muster enough support around Luka Doncic in a loss to the Suns, while Los Angeles couldn't survive a first-quarter onslaught against the Clippers.
The Lakers looked lethargic in that loss, which is to be expected a mere two months after winning the NBA Finals. And while they clearly have the talent to flip that switch in a hurry, it's premature to expect they will on a game-to-game basis. It doesn't help LeBron James turned his ankle in the opener and could be less than 100%, which L.A. clearly needs him to be at this stage of the season.
While the market is still adjusting, it might be wise to take points in matchups like this one. Within the first five games of the season, underdogs of at least six points have gone 50% or better ATS in seven of the last eight seasons.
Pick: Mavericks +6
Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5, 224.5) at Denver Nuggets, 10:30 p.m.
The Clippers came out firing on Tuesday in their first game since blowing a 3-1 series lead in the Western Conference semifinals. Now they'll have to exorcise those demons against the team that knocked them out in September.
The last three teams avenging a 3-1 series collapse have lost that first rematch the following season. Los Angeles will have a tough time correcting that trend after a taxing win against the Lakers that saw Kawhi Leonard (34 minutes) and Paul George (35 minutes) attempt a combined 44 shots to stave off a late comeback bid.
The Nuggets didn't look particularly sharp in Wednesday's overtime loss to the Kings, but they still showed flashes despite Jamal Murray fouling out amid a brutal shooting day. If he can escalate his play to what he showed against the Clippers in the playoffs, Denver will be the easy play.
Pick: Nuggets +2.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.