NBA Monday betting preview: Rockets overvalued without Christian Wood

Still recovering from losing all of your Super Bowl over bets on Sunday? Now's a perfect time to bet on the NBA, which kicks off this week with an eight-game slate.

Here are a few of our favorite plays Monday.

Rockets (-3, 223.5) @ Hornets

The Rockets simply can't catch a break. They had to deal with the James Harden trade saga that influenced a 3-6 start to the season. Then, after a revival in the dozen games post-trade, they lost Christian Wood to a nasty ankle injury Thursday that will keep him out for at least a week.

Houston lost to the Spurs (+5) by five points without Wood on Saturday, and this price doesn't knock the Rockets enough for losing an All-Star producer who acted as the engine for this offense since Harden's departure. It also sells the Hornets short amid a 4-1 ATS run that includes wins over the Pacers and Bucks.

Charlotte is 11-6 against the spread as an underdog and 8-3 ATS versus teams at .500 or worse, and it should be able to put the clamps on a mostly toothless Houston offense. The under is in play here, but the better value is on the 'dogs.

Pick: Hornets +3

Raptors (-3, 223) @ Grizzlies

One of the best ways to make money this season has been fading the Raptors, who currently own the league's second-worst ATS record (9-14) behind the injury-riddled Heat. Much of that is due to Toronto's regression on defense, which has been below average this year after three straight seasons in the top five.

A few blowout wins have boosted the Raptors' net rating (plus-1.3) to 11th in the NBA, but they still rank just a few spots ahead of the Grizzlies (minus-0.1) - a number that includes eight games without star Ja Morant. Since he returned from injury on Jan. 16, Memphis has looked like a different team offensively and is 4-3 ATS with a plus-2.3 net rating.

This line should be closer to Grizzlies +1.5 or even +1, so there's value alone in betting the underdogs here. With Morant attacking the middle of a vulnerable Toronto defense, there's a good chance Memphis wins outright, too.

Pick: Grizzlies +3

Thunder @ Lakers (-9.5, 217.5)

Two weeks ago, we highlighted that big favorites were cleaning up at a record pace through the season's first month. That's still the case now, with double-digit favorites posting a 21-9-2 ATS record and a 20-5-2 ATS mark against all teams not named the Pistons.

The Lakers have gone 5-2 ATS in that spot and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 dating back to 2020, outscoring their opponents by an average of 15.5 points. The Thunder, meanwhile, have gone 1-4 ATS in that same stretch, losing by 23.2 points per game - including a 29-point loss to L.A. on Jan. 13.

The Lakers are a consensus top-three team with a plus-8.2 net rating, while the Thunder are a bottom-three team at minus-6.6 and won't be able to rely on its usual inside attack against a stout L.A. defense. You could argue this line should be even higher.

Pick: Lakers -9.5

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.