Using strength of schedule to find betting value in NBA's 2nd half
Most NBA bettors know that a team's strength of schedule can have a dramatic effect on how that group looks at various points in the year. It's still easy to get caught up in the ebbs and flows of the season and miss the value of betting teams at the opportune time.
Here's a look at every team's record against the spread and straight up, as well as how their strength of schedule ranks against other teams in the first and second half of the NBA season. (A higher rank means a tougher schedule.)
TEAM | ATS | SU | 1ST | 2ND |
---|---|---|---|---|
Utah Jazz | 25-11 | 27-9 | 1 | 30 |
Dallas Mavericks | 15-19 | 18-16 | 2 | 29 |
Sacramento Kings | 15-21 | 14-22 | 3 | 24 |
Denver Nuggets | 17-18-1 | 21-15 | 4 | 25 |
Golden State Warriors | 18-19 | 19-18 | 5 | 23 |
Oklahoma City Thunder | 20-16 | 15-21 | 6 | 19 |
Detroit Pistons | 17-16-3 | 10-26 | 7 | 19 |
Los Angeles Clippers | 19-18 | 23-14 | 7 | 17 |
Miami Heat | 16-19-1 | 18-18 | 7 | 27 |
Memphis Grizzlies | 18-14 | 16-16 | 10 | 13 |
New Orleans Pelicans | 15-20-1 | 15-21 | 10 | 10 |
Atlanta Hawks | 17-19 | 16-20 | 12 | 22 |
Brooklyn Nets | 20-17 | 24-13 | 12 | 28 |
Philadelphia 76ers | 17-18-1 | 24-12 | 14 | 25 |
Washington Wizards | 18-16 | 14-20 | 14 | 19 |
Cleveland Cavaliers | 16-19-1 | 14-22 | 16 | 16 |
Los Angeles Lakers | 16-19-2 | 24-13 | 16 | 7 |
Minnesota Timberwolves | 14-21-1 | 7-29 | 16 | 4 |
Boston Celtics | 17-19 | 19-17 | 19 | 18 |
Phoenix Suns | 23-12 | 24-11 | 19 | 10 |
Portland Trail Blazers | 19-16 | 21-14 | 19 | 9 |
Indiana Pacers | 14-21 | 16-19 | 22 | 14 |
Charlotte Hornets | 20-15 | 17-18 | 23 | 14 |
Houston Rockets | 11-23 | 11-23 | 24 | 1 |
Milwaukee Bucks | 16-19-1 | 22-14 | 24 | 12 |
Toronto Raptors | 17-19 | 17-19 | 26 | 8 |
Chicago Bulls | 20-13-1 | 16-18 | 27 | 6 |
New York Knicks | 21-16 | 19-18 | 28 | 5 |
Orlando Magic | 17-19 | 13-23 | 28 | 2 |
San Antonio Spurs | 17-14-1 | 18-14 | 30 | 2 |
Easier schedule
Utah Jazz (25-11 ATS)
If you thought this team was nasty in the first half, get ready for the encore. The Jazz posted the best ATS record by any team before an All-Star break in the last 25 years despite facing the league's toughest schedule. Now they get to tear through the NBA's easiest remaining slate - which includes five of their remaining 36 games against the Timberwolves and Rockets.
Utah has gone 13-4 ATS against teams that entered the game with a losing record, which is the best mark in the NBA and tied for the fourth-best before the break in the last 25 years. More games against bad teams is a godsend for regular Jazz bettors.
Dallas Mavericks (15-19 ATS)
Only one team will see the schedule ease up more than the Mavericks, who go from facing the NBA's second-toughest slate to the second-easiest. Dallas could use the reprieve - the team went 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against opponents that entered the contest with a winning record.
Luka Doncic and Co. face only 17 teams above .500 over their final 38 games, and 11 of those contests are at home. That should do wonders for the Mavericks' ATS outlook after a bumpy start.
Brooklyn Nets (20-17 ATS)
How much more help does this team need? The Nets were tied for the NBA's fourth-best record over the first half despite star Kevin Durant missing 19 of their first 37 games and James Harden joining almost a month into the season.
When Durant returns, he and his All-Star teammates will have the benefit of the league's third-softest schedule. Brooklyn only faces six back-to-backs in the second half, as well, which should mean less scheduled rest for Durant, Kyrie Irving, and newly acquired forward Blake Griffin.
Harder schedule
Houston Rockets (11-23 ATS)
As good as things have been for the Jazz, they've been equally bad for the Rockets, who have the third-worst ATS record before an All-Star break in that 25-year span. That came despite playing this season's sixth-easiest schedule by opponent winning percentage in the first half.
The good news is that Christian Wood's imminent return will almost certainly help Houston snap its current 13-game losing streak. The bad news is his team will face the NBA's toughest remaining schedule. So much for a second-half turnaround.
San Antonio Spurs (17-14-1 ATS)
The Rockets are saddled with the hardest second-half slate of any team, but the Spurs face the toughest adjustment going from the NBA's easiest schedule in the first half to the second-hardest over the back half.
Only six of San Antonio's 18 wins this season have come against teams that currently boast a winning record, while half of its losses are against such teams. Turning up the difficulty on the Spurs' remaining schedule could seriously hamper their playoff hopes.
New York Knicks (21-16 ATS)
If you talked yourself into the Knicks after their impressive start to the season, you might want to reconsider. New York ranks third in the NBA in ATS wins (21), but only six of them have come against a team with a winning record.
That's a very bad sign ahead of the second half, during which Tom Thibodeau's group has two games apiece against the Suns, 76ers, Lakers, and Nets - four of the five best teams in the NBA by record. Don't be surprised to see the Knicks' surprisingly stout defense fall apart down the stretch.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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