Why you need to bet the Suns to win the NBA Finals

In the mid-to-late 2000s, the Phoenix Suns seemed destined to win a championship. In six seasons with Steve Nash and Amar'e Stoudemire, the team won 67.5% of its regular-season games, secured five playoff berths, and made three trips to the conference finals, the last coming in 2010.

And just like that, the run was over. Stoudemire signed with the Knicks in the summer of 2010, and Phoenix spent 10 straight years mired in the NBA's second-longest active postseason drought, coming close with last year's 8-0 run in the bubble before ultimately falling short - as usual.

Few expected anything different when this year's team opened with 65-1 odds to win the title. Instead, the Suns posted the fifth-best record in franchise history (51-21) and secured their first top-two seed since 2006-07. Yet, they enter the postseason as a distant seventh choice to win it all (+1800) and underdogs to survive the first round against the Lakers (-220).

Given the volatility of this year's field, that title price is an absolute steal. And unlike the teams from the 2000s, these Suns can win it all.

Not your father's Suns

First, let's get this out of the way: this group is inferior on paper to the 2004-05 Suns, considered among the best teams in NBA history not to win a title. That team featured three All-Stars in Nash, Stoudemire, and Shawn Marion; won a league-best 62 games; and ranked second in net rating (+7.0) with a historically efficient offense.

Still, it's closer than you think. This year's team ranks third in net rating (+5.9) behind a 58-win pace, and boasts two bona fide All-Stars in Chris Paul and Devin Booker - with talented 7-footer Deandre Ayton likely to join them in the coming years. Crucially, it's also one of only two teams this season (Jazz) with a top-seven offensive and defensive rating, striking a balance that simply didn't exist for the run-and-gun Suns of the 2000s.

This year's unit has also proven itself against top competition in a way that often spells playoff success. Since 1995, only 20 teams have won more than 70% of their games against teams that held a winning record at tipoff. The idea is simple: beating elite teams in the regular season bodes well for the postseason, where every opponent is a tough out.

Here's how those previous 19 teams fared in the playoffs:

Ten of the previous 19 teams in that spot reached the Finals and eight won it all, while four others - including Paul's 2017-18 Rockets - reached the conference finals. That team, like the 04-05 Suns, is among the great "what-ifs" in NBA history; if the star point guard doesn't injure his hamstring late in that series, Houston likely wins the title.

Paul played 70 of 72 games this season after playing 70 games a year ago, so his health isn't much of a question heading into this year's playoffs. The same can't be said for Phoenix's competition.

A wide-open West

The entire NBA is injured, or at least it feels that way. Of the top eight teams in net rating, four - the Jazz, Nuggets, Nets, and Lakers - have been dealt major injuries to key players in recent weeks. The Clippers and 76ers are also each relying on a pair of oft-injured stars whose health has come to define their organizations' chances of winning a title.

Health hasn't been a concern for the Suns this season. In fact, it's been the exact opposite. The team's five-man lineup of Paul, Booker, Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Jae Crowder has played the most minutes (706) of any five-man unit in the NBA - a key reason why the team finishes an NBA-best 19.6% of its possessions with an assist.

That level of continuity stands out in a playoff field full of uncertainty and makeshift rotations. It also helped the Suns win 51 games and clinch an all-important No. 2 seed. Top-two seeds own a 258-56 series record (82.2%) in the first two rounds, while 37 of the 44 champions since the merger have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

Of course, injuries can derail a playoff run at any moment - ask Paul about that - but the Suns have proven durable and battle-tested this season. Yet they're still being disrespected in the betting market.

Historic test awaits

Entering this postseason, a No. 2 seed has never been priced as an underdog in the first round. Top-two seeds are also rarely priced outside of the top six contenders in the title market.

The Lakers' presence as a No. 7 seed changes both equations, though they barely survived the Warriors in the play-in game and are still battling injuries. Conversely, Phoenix went 2-1 in the regular season against L.A. and a combined 15-6 against the remaining teams in the West, and it's been tested in a way few teams have over the last 25 years.

If the Suns (+180) can survive an unlucky draw in the first round, they're well-positioned to go on a deep run behind a combination of experience, continuity, and balance unlike any team in this postseason - or in franchise history.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.