NBA Tuesday betting preview: Take the points with the Celtics
The Heat-Bucks total easily cashed but the Trail Blazers' offense couldn't come through, splitting Monday's betting picks 1-1.
Three must-watch Game 2s line the board Tuesday. Here are the top plays to consider.
Celtics @ Nets (-9.5, 227)
The Celtics did everything in their power to lose against the spread in Saturday's Game 1.
Boston, which closed as an 8.5-point underdog, watched a six-point halftime lead evaporate, and ultimately fell by nine. The team led by as much as 12 and trailed by as much as 17.
Nobody's giving the Celtics much of a chance in this series - they were +700 to beat the Nets in a seven-game set - but I'll take the points in Game 2.
Head coach Brad Stevens has been money in these spots, going 5-2 against the spread the last seven postseason games as a 'dog and 15-5-1 ATS the last 21 first-round contests. Additionally, time off has boded well for Boston, which is riding a 7-0 streak ATS when playing on two days of rest.
Celtics on 2 days of rest (last 7)
| Opponent | Final | Spread | ATS W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves | W 124-108 | +5 | W |
| Magic | W 132-96 | -12.5 | W |
| Suns | W 99-86 | +1.5 | W |
| Rockets | W 134-107 | -10.5 | W |
| Clippers | W 117-112 | +4.5 | W |
| Lakers | L 96-95 | +3.5 | W |
| Warriors | W 111-107 | -2.5 | W |
Pick: Celtics +9.5
Lakers @ Suns (+2, 210)
The Suns and Lakers would have needed another quarter to surpass Sunday's closing total of 214. L.A. made just 33 field goals and shot just 43.4% from the field in the 99-90 loss.
A low-scoring contest wasn't surprising - first-round Game 1s entering the year were on a 45-28-1 (61.6%) run to the under since 2012. Although the trend doesn't apply for Game 2, bettors should expect more of the same.
Pace is an entirely different factor in the postseason. While teams play a little more freely during the regular season, half-court possessions become more of the norm in the playoffs.
These two played at a crawl (92.5 pace rating) this past weekend and showed no signs of putting the pedal to the floor outside of some timely fast-break points from Phoenix.
The Lakers are 19-7 to the under the last 26 as a road favorite and typically play lower-scoring games against elite teams, as evidenced by cashing 11 of the last 14 unders versus clubs with winning percentages north of .600.
Pick: Under 210
Mavericks @ Clippers (-7, 215)
The market can't seem to get a grasp on Mavericks-Clippers totals. Following Dallas' 113-103 win in Saturday's opener, the two franchises have gone under in five straight, with four nowhere close.
Mavericks-Clippers last 5
| Final | Closing Total | Points Shy of Total |
|---|---|---|
| DAL 113-103 | 217.5 | 1.5 |
| DAL 105-89 | 225.5 | 31.5 |
| LAC 109-99 | 229.5 | 21 |
| DAL 124-73 | 227.5 | 30.5 |
| LAC 111-97 | 236 | 28 |
The number's plummeted all the way to 215 for Tuesday's tilt, but over bettors should still sit this one out.
The Clippers and Mavericks played at an even slower pace than the Suns and Lakers (89.4 possessions) and combined for just four (!) fast-break points in the opener. Plus, two offenses that don't get to the free-throw line often - both were bottom 10 during the regular season - combined for 50 free-throw attempts Saturday, yet still couldn't cash the over.
Let's make it six unders in a row for these two.
Pick: Under 215
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.