NBA Western Conference playoff preview

The playoffs are nearly upon us, and we've got you covered with previews of every series and our favorite bets in each.

Here are our top plays for the Western Conference, which is defined by injuries as much as star power in this year's field.

No. 1 Jazz (N/A) vs. No. 8 Warriors/Grizzlies

We won't know who the Jazz will face in the first round until Friday night, by which point we should also have more clarity on whether Donovan Mitchell is healthy enough to play this entire series. The answer to both questions could be enough to decide Utah's playoff fate.

Start with Mitchell, who hasn't played since spraining his ankle April 16. He's targeting a Game 1 return on Sunday, though it's anyone's guess if he'll be healthy enough to contribute. His team will need it: The Jazz were 42-14 with the NBA's best net rating (plus-9.3) before his injury. Since then, they're 10-6 and have scored a full point fewer per 100 possessions.

They'd have taken a bigger hit if Utah didn't have arguably the best bench in the league. Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles are the front-runners to win Sixth Man of the Year, helping their team to the eighth-most bench points (38.9 PPG) despite ranking 24th in bench minutes. The beauty of this Jazz team is its strong identity regardless of who's on the floor - they fire more threes than anyone, play tenacious defense, and rarely allow teams to blow a game open, having lost by 10 or more points a league-low seven times this year.

All of that is still true, but without a healthy Mitchell, the Jazz lack a go-to scorer down the stretch and a rangy defender to harass Stephen Curry types. Speaking of which, the Warriors have heated up behind their superstar, winning eight of their last 10 games with the NBA's best net rating in May (plus-12.7). That's coincided with Curry's run to the scoring title - he's averaging 36.8 points in that 10-game stretch and dropped 46 in the play-in game, though he couldn't get the ball cleanly on the game's final play.

The Jazz will likely also attempt to force the ball out of Curry's hands, which is no small feat, especially with Mitchell and Mike Conley hobbled. While Golden State's lack of size is a problem against Rudy Gobert, the big man has been played off the floor at times in recent postseasons, and the Warriors have the personnel to force Utah's hand.

That isn't the case for the Grizzlies, who are significantly better with Jonas Valanciunas on the floor but also much more limited on both ends. Although Ja Morant could have his star moment in these playoffs, he doesn't have the shooting to take advantage of a Jazz defense that stifles inside looks and forces teams to beat them on the outside.

If Memphis advances, don't expect a long series. If the Warriors do, and Mitchell isn't at full strength, this one could go the distance.

Pick: TBD

No. 2 Suns (+140) vs. No. 7 Lakers (-160)

Before this postseason, a 7-seed had never been favored over a 2-seed in NBA playoff history, and only 10 had pulled off a first-round upset in 148 tries. Yet from the way talking heads are discussing this series, you'd think it had been decided before the opening tip.

If you read my deep dive on the Suns from Thursday, you'd know that isn't the case. This team is built to win in a multitude of ways, and it's proven that against top competition thus far. Phoenix is only the 20th team in the last 25 years to win more than 70% of its games against opponents with a winning record at the time. Eight of the previous 19 won it all, and all but one advanced beyond the first round.

Phoenix is also quite healthy, a rarity at this point in the season and a stark contrast to its opponent. The Suns' starting lineup has played the most minutes of any five-man unit this season. Conversely, the Lakers played just 27 games with LeBron James and Anthony Davis active - including five since mid-February - and that rust was apparent when they fell behind by 13 at halftime of Wednesday's play-in win over the Warriors.

The fact that they came back is ultimately the story, and it showcased how quickly Los Angeles can flip from mediocre to elite. After all, the Lakers lost eight of their last nine games in 2019-20 before ripping through the postseason - albeit with a healthier group. Will that be the case again here?

Perhaps, but at these odds, it isn't a risk worth playing. As we noted earlier this week, the Suns are one of the few teams in this year's field with a championship profile, and they have the balance, continuity, and experience to fend off the defending champions. It's rarely wise to fade LeBron in the postseason, but this price demands it.

Pick: Suns (+140)

No. 3 Nuggets (Even) vs. No. 6 Trail Blazers (-120)

The last time a 6-seed was favored to beat a No. 3 was in 2019, when the third-seeded Trail Blazers were first-round underdogs against the Thunder. We all know how that ended: Damian Lillard drilled a 37-foot game-winner and waved goodbye to OKC's title hopes.

It was the third time in five tries that a No. 3 seed staved off a favored No. 6 seed dating back to 1990, though this version of the Nuggets isn't the one that earned a top-three seed in the regular season. That one relied heavily on rising star Jamal Murray, who has played just one game since April 6 and is out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.

Simply put, this is not the same team without him. Before Murray's extended absence, the Nuggets were 31-18 and owned the fifth-best net rating (plus-5.3) in the NBA; they've since gone 16-7 and have been a borderline top-10 team per net rating (plus-3.9) after losing to the Blazers by 16 points in the season finale.

Their recent numbers are buoyed by the deadline acquisition of Aaron Gordon, who briefly looked like the missing piece in the Nuggets' title puzzle. In four games with Gordon and Murray, Denver outscored opponents by 12.5 points per contest. Even without Murray, Gordon's skill set as a superb wing defender and athletic cutter on offense is crucial in the postseason.

The Blazers improved at the deadline, too, picking up swingman Norman Powell in one of the more underrated moves of the season. Portland has been a remarkable 6.9 points per 100 possessions better in 28 games with Powell and boasted a top-three net rating (plus-6.0) since acquiring the former Raptor, who can take pressure off Lillard and CJ McCollum when opposing defenses attempt to trap the two elite guards.

Portland is simply the hotter team in this matchup, having won 10 of its last 12 games with a scoring margin of 13.2 points in that stretch. The Blazers' defense doesn't have a great answer for likely MVP Nikola Jokic, though former Nugget Jusuf Nurkic is an underrated interior defender and a crucial secondary playmaker for the Blazers should Denver key on Lillard.

This series will be a compelling chess match between coaches who could be fighting for their jobs. If Murray were healthy, the Nuggets would have too much firepower to deny. In his absence, the Blazers are the more dangerous team with a more proven lineup and an attractive price, to boot.

Pick: Blazers (-120)

No. 4 Clippers (-420) vs. No. 5 Mavericks (+340)

At this point last year, the Clippers were title co-favorites alongside the Lakers and Bucks and arguably the most popular pick to come out of the West. A year later, they enter the postseason with a nearly identical record, a better point differential, and a better roster on paper - and few are discussing them as title favorites.

That's what happens when you collapse in the playoffs, which surely lingers in the mind of bettors. What likely doesn't stick in their memories is that the Clippers beat the Mavericks in the series prior, winning the final two games by a combined 57 points.

That doesn't mean it'll be easy this time. That series went six games despite Kristaps Porzingis missing the final three contests after a strong showing in the first three. He's healthy heading into this series, and while he's been inconsistent this season, he adds another element for the Clippers to reckon with.

He and Luka Doncic need to be at their best because Dallas has one of the worst supporting casts of any playoff team. The team's third-leading scorer is Tim Hardaway, who is two games removed from shooting 1-for-11 and has six single-digit outputs in his last 20 games. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are two of the best wing defenders in the league; if they neutralize Doncic, the Mavericks will be in trouble.

That's much easier said than done. Doncic scored at least 20 points in 57 of 66 games this year and averaged seven assists in those other nine games. He averaged 31 points in last year's Clippers series and single-handedly willed the Mavericks to an overtime win in Game 4 behind a 43-point triple-double. How do you stop that?

Doncic will get his, and it'll likely be enough for at least a pair of wins in this series. Los Angeles rarely puts away opponents quickly; since their 2012 sweep by the Spurs, the Clippers' last 10 series have all gone at least six games. The last time they won a series in five games or fewer was in 2006.

It'd frankly be stunning if the Mavericks were to win four games in this series, given their lack of depth and the general talent gap between these clubs. But can they win two or three? History suggests they will.

Pick: Mavericks +1.5 series wins (+142)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.