NBA Monday best bets: Fade Lakers without LeBron
Despite a 1-3 mark on the weekend, we're still 24-19 against the spread on our NBA picks this season ahead of an intriguing Monday menu.
Heat (-1.5, 204.5) @ Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
How much longer are oddsmakers going to discount the Heat before pricing them as an elite squad? After beating the Jazz in Saturday's bout between the top two teams thus far, Miami is an NBA-best 7-2 ATS and owns an 11.7 net rating through nine games, second only to the surging Warriors.
The Nuggets are legitimate contenders in the West but have lost six of their first nine ATS behind one of the league's least efficient offenses. With Michael Porter expected to sit out this contest, Denver will be hard-pressed to keep pace offensively against the Heat's swarming defense.
Pick: Heat -1.5
Hawks @ Warriors (-3.5, 222), 10 p.m.
The Warriors are back - at least through nine games. Golden State leads the NBA in win-loss record (8-1), net rating (+13.0), and defensive rating (97.0), that last mark pacing the field by more than three points per 100 possessions. That elite defense has held each of its last seven opponents to 107 points or fewer.
Meanwhile, the Hawks' talented offense ranks a meager 12th in points per 100 possessions (107.9), and big man John Collins is iffy for this game with a foot injury that has hampered his scoring output this season. Atlanta's offense has elite upside, but we aren't likely to see it in this one.
Pick: Hawks under 109.5 points
Hornets @ Lakers (-2.5, 227.5), 10:30 p.m.
Until LeBron James returns to this lineup at full strength, it's hard to bet the Lakers as favorites against nearly anyone. In James' six active games, Los Angeles is 4-2 straight up and is outscoring teams by 1.7 points per contest; in his four games missed, the team is 1-3 with a minus-5.5 scoring differential.
The Hornets are off to an 0-4 start in November but have still been on par with the Lakers on a per-possession basis this season and catch L.A. off a 15-point drubbing in Portland. The Lakers clearly aren't right without James, and that'll show on Monday.
Pick: Hornets +2.5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].